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MIB Daily: WTI Below $100 and NVDA’s $81.6B Beat — Can Iran Hold Long Enough to Kill December’s Rate Hike?

By RecessionALERT on May 20, 2026 in Reflections

Dow crossed 50,000 as Trump declared Iran talks ‘in final stages,’ crashing WTI -5.7% to $98 and pulling the 10-year yield -9 bps. NVIDIA Q1 beat ($81.6B, +85% YoY; Q2 guide $89-93B, $80B buyback) lifted AMD +8.1% and INTC +7.4%. Russell 2000 led all indices at +2.51% as rate-sensitive small-caps caught the yield-relief bid. April FOMC minutes put a majority on record for hiking; December probability above 50%. 20-year Treasury auction cleared at 5.12% with below-average demand, post-Moody’s.

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MIB: Record Nasdaq, Collapsing Breadth — Apple Hides a Market That’s Quietly Breaking Down

By RecessionALERT on May 1, 2026 in Reflections

Apple Q2 beat drove AAPL +3.24% and Nasdaq 100 to a record, but 8 of 11 sectors fell and VIX rose — mega-cap AI, not a broad advance. UAE exited OPEC+ after 60 years, threatening cartel discipline while WTI fell 2.45%. Trump imposed 25% EU auto tariffs violating the 2025 framework; EU retaliation across agriculture and tech is unpriced. ISM Prices hit 84.6% while Manufacturing Employment fell to 46.4% — stagflation crystallizing. Pentagon cleared eight companies for classified AI networks; ORCL +6.47%.

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MIB: $100 Oil, Five Straight Down Weeks, and a Consumer Sentiment Reading From the Abyss

By RecessionALERT on March 27, 2026 in Reflections

WTI crude above $100 for first time since 2022; Trump’s Iran deadline extension did nothing to calm markets. Dow enters correction; S&P posts 5th straight losing week — worst streak in 4 years. Macquarie warns 40% chance of $200 oil, $7/gallon gasoline if war lasts to June. Gold surges to $4,521/oz as VIX spikes 13% to 31. AZN +2.74% on Phase 3 COPD breakthrough. UMich crashes to 53.3 — bottom 1st percentile of all-time survey history.

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MIB: Hormuz Crisis Day 3 — Oil +15%, Stagflation Signal Flashes, Fed Pulls Back on Rate Cuts

By RecessionALERT on March 3, 2026 in Reflections

US-Iran war enters Day 3 — gold hit $5,417 record Monday, oil +15% this week. S&P 500 -0.94%, trimmed from intraday -2.5% loss after Trump’s Navy escort announcement. Fed’s Williams and Kashkari pull back from 2026 cut forecasts as 10Y yields rise on stagflation fears. UAL -4.09%, DAL -5% on fuel shock. Target (TGT) +7.5% on earnings beat. CrowdStrike beats after the bell.

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