Empire State Manufacturing Index

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MIB Daily: The Front End Didn’t Blink, WTI +3.23% and the 30-Year at 5.31% Lifted Energy While Communication Services Bled, Nvidia’s $105B Ohio Bet, Meta’s $1.4T Trial, Wednesday’s Auction the Test

By RecessionALERT on August 17, 2026 in Reflections

The US-Iran framework expired with no extension and Trump threatened to bomb Oman — WTI +3.23% to $84.10, Energy led. The 30-year yield hit 5.31%, highest since 2007, while the 2-year barely moved. Nvidia guaranteed up to $105B for one OpenAI campus in Ohio. Meta’s youth-harms trial opened with $1.4T on the table; META -3.54%. Canada has 36 hours before a 50% tariff. Anthropic posted $11.5B Q2 revenue and its first operating profit.

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MIB Daily: A Divided Fed, Cracking Chips (Micron -8%), and Iran’s Widening Risk — Rotation Wins Into a September Reckoning

By RecessionALERT on July 15, 2026 in Reflections

Cooler June PPI fueled a rate-cut rally — S&P 500 +0.38%, Apple (+4%) hit a record high on China’s AI approval. Chip stocks reversed hard: Micron -8%, Dell -9.8%, on fresh Chinese memory-competition fears. Stripe and Advent lobbed a $53B bid for PayPal, sending shares up 16-17%. The Fed split publicly — Williams says inflation “has peaked,” Cook is “prepared to act.” Iran’s conflict widened as US strikes resumed, pushing Brent toward $86. European gas jumped 4% on a Qatari LNG halt.

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MIB Daily: Iran’s oil move does what eight months of hawkishness couldn’t — WTI −4.2% to $81 reopens the easing path, PHLX Semi +7.9% confirms AI broadening, and Warsh’s dot-plot Wednesday is the verdict

By RecessionALERT on June 15, 2026 in Reflections

US-Iran peace deal formalizes Hormuz reopening — WTI −4.2% to $81 unlocks the rate-path debate ahead of Wednesday’s Warsh FOMC. Computex 2026: PHLX Semi +7.9%, MU +11%, WDC +16%; HBM4 sold out through year-end. SPCX +19% Day 2 to $192; $2.5T market cap passes Apple. Fox acquires Roku for $22B; FOXA −16%. Empire State June 5.7 vs. 14.0 exp. — tariff front-running demand reversal confirmed. Housing 26th consecutive sub-50; 35% of builders cutting prices; Starts data due Tuesday.

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