NY Fed Vice Chair Williams sees one more hike this year and none in 2027, a ceiling futures refuse to price, while Boston’s Collins wants rates “a bit further” higher. A Houthi missile set part of Saudi Aramco’s Dhahran headquarters ablaze after oil settled. Bank of America drew a $1.2B anti-money-laundering penalty on the eve of earnings. Applied Materials sank 6.69% on a missing spending forecast while Meta rose 2.63%. Citi and BlackRock both stepped back from US stocks.
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MIB Daily: AI Is Now the Fed’s Inflation Problem as Applied Materials Sinks 6.69%, Aramco Burns After Oil Settles, and BlackRock and Citi Step Back From Stocks at a 5.2% 10-Year Before CPI
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MIB Daily: Oil Just Took the Fed’s Steering Wheel — Brent +4.72% Overrides Soft Labor Costs While GS -2.62% and C -2.78% Drag the Dow, Williams Waves Off an AI Bubble, and Crude Sparks a Rotation Ahead of Friday’s Payrolls
Iran’s restrictive Hormuz draft blew up the reopening trade — Brent +4.72% to $83.20, Energy the lone sector gainer. Banks dragged the Dow down 464 points; Goldman and Citi each off more than 2.5%. Q2 unit labour costs came in at 1.3% against 2.1% expected and claims held below 200K for a third week — yields rose anyway. SpaceX doubled its float and still closed up 6.14%. Williams says AI isn’t a bubble; tech steadied, Microsoft +2.54%. July payrolls Friday, 80K expected.
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MIB Daily: IBM’s Worst Day Since 1987 Confirms the AI-to-Cybersecurity Rotation — CPI Cools to 3.5%, But Wednesday’s PPI Decides If the Fed Agrees
June CPI cooled sharply to 3.5% y/y, crushing July Fed hike odds to 17% from 42%, as Chair Warsh’s first House testimony struck a hawkish note. Markets rallied broadly (S&P +0.39%, Nasdaq +1.10%) despite IBM’s historic 25% crash, its worst day since 1987, as enterprise clients pivot spend toward AI hardware — hammering software (Oracle -2.7%) while cybersecurity soared (CrowdStrike +12%). Goldman Sachs surged 9.16% on record trading. Oil jumped over 2% as Trump narrowed the Hormuz blockade to Iran-linked shipping.
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MIB: Iran Blinks — WTI Craters 7%, S&P Rallies, But Gold at $4,866 Says the Market Doesn’t Believe It
US-Iran talks could restart Thursday — WTI crude -6.86% to $92, S&P 500 +1.18% to 6,967. March PPI +0.5% vs +1.1% feared; core +0.1% — no second-wave inflation yet. IEA: 2026 oil demand to contract for first time since COVID. Gold hit new record $4,866/oz (+2.08%) even on a risk-on day. JPMorgan record $16.5B profit but NII cut (JPM -3%); WFC -5.70% on revenue miss. Oracle surged +4.74% on history’s largest AI fuel cell deal with Bloom Energy.
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