April CPI hit 3.8% — hottest since May 2023 — eliminating all 2026 cut bets and lifting hike odds to 30%; QCOM crashed 11.5% as Monday’s record highs evaporated. WTI settled at $102/bbl (+4.1%) with Goldman warning on downstream product shortages from naphtha to aviation fuel. Goolsbee explicitly tabled rate hikes; Warsh’s Fed Chair vote is Wednesday. UNH’s EPS beat (+9.7%) lifted Healthcare to S&P top sector. $166B in tariff refunds began flowing back to Walmart, Target, and Nike.
Tag Archives | Austan Goolsbee
MIB: The Cut Consensus Is Dead — Can Warsh’s Fed Avoid a Hike Without a Bond Market Tantrum?
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MIB: NFP Blowout Lifts S&P to ATH as Michigan Sentiment Hits 74-Year Low, Apple-Intel Deal Reshapes US Chip Strategy
April NFP exploded to +115K vs. 65K expected, vaulting the S&P 500 to a new ATH and cementing Fed-on-hold through 2027 — but Michigan Sentiment crashed to a 74-year record low of 48.2 as $4.55 gasoline hammers household confidence. Apple and Intel struck a preliminary chip-manufacturing deal backed by a 10% White House equity stake in Intel. Micron crossed $800B, eclipsing JPMorgan. Iran diplomacy inched forward but active military exchanges continue — Hormuz remains the inflation wildcard. Warsh Senate vote: next week.
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MIB: Record S&P 500, AMD +18.6%, and a Hawkish Fed Pivot — Three Conflicting Signals on the Same Day
Markets hit all-time highs as Iran peace deal optimism crashed WTI -6% and AMD surged +18.6% on blowout Q1 earnings — Data Center +57%, Q2 guide $11.2B vs. $10.5B consensus; S&P +1.46%, Nasdaq 100 +2.09%. NVIDIA reclaimed $5T market cap on a $3.2B Corning optical deal. ADP April +109K sets up Friday’s binary NFP (range: 55K–165K). Fed’s Musalem and Goolsbee both turned hawkish, flagging rate hike scenarios even as oil crashed — April CPI May 12 is now pivotal.
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MIB: All-Time Low — Consumer Sentiment Collapses as CPI Stalls the Fed and Semis Soar on Tariff Relief
March CPI hit 3.3% (gasoline +21.2%) but core held at 2.6% — Fed stuck. Michigan consumer sentiment crashed to an all-time low of 47.6. Semis surged on Trump tariff exemptions (AVGO +4.69%, AMD +3.55%). TSMC confirmed AI demand is booming: Q1 revenue +35% to $35.7B. Meta locked in $21B with CoreWeave through 2032 (META +3.4%). FICO plunged 14% as the Senate opened a probe into mortgage credit score pricing.
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MIB: February CPI Calm Before Storm, IEA Record Oil Release, Oracle +12% as AI Cloud Demand Holds Firm
Oracle surges 12.2% as OCI results blow past estimates (RPO $553B), proving AI cloud demand is war-proof. IEA triggers largest-ever oil reserve release (400M barrels) but WTI holds above $86 — Hormuz still closed. February CPI tame at +2.4% — calm before the storm as energy shock hits March data. Centene (CNC) -14% as CEO warns ACA enrollment collapses 36%. Airlines down 30% YTD; energy sector +25% YTD. All eyes on Adobe Thursday and UMich Friday.
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