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MIB Daily: Bond Market Now Pricing US Fiscal Credibility, Not the Fed — 30Y 5.198%, Oil $111, NVDA Wednesday

By RecessionALERT on May 19, 2026 in Reflections

30-year Treasury yield hit 5.198% — a 19-year high — sending equities to a third straight loss as markets reprice US fiscal credibility. Trump confirmed one hour from Iran strike; Gulf allies intervened as IEA warns emergency reserves nearly exhausted. Fed Governor Waller flagged rate-hike risk; April FOMC minutes (4-way dissent, most since 1992) release Wednesday 2 PM ET. SNDK +3.77% on 60% EPS beat and 233% data-center surge; NVDA Wednesday AMC.

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MIB: Summit Override — S&P and Nasdaq ATH Despite PPI 6.0%, Warsh Confirmed, 30-Year Clears 5%

By RecessionALERT on May 13, 2026 in Reflections

S&P 500 hit a fresh all-time high (7,444) as the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing drove AI and semiconductor stocks to records — Nvidia reached $5.5T market cap and Trump confirmed discussing Blackwell chip exports with Xi — even as April PPI printed +6.0% YoY, the hottest since December 2022. Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Fed Chair 54-45, inheriting a policy trap. The 30-year Treasury crossed 5.046% at auction. The IEA warned of the largest oil supply deficit in history at 8.5 mb/day.

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