The globalised world was built for efficiency, not resilience. The assumption that underpinned six decades of globalisation was deceptively simple: the world’s critical systems — energy supply, food production, financial flows, maritime trade, military alliances — were robust enough to absorb shocks. They were not. Operation Epic Fury has not created new vulnerabilities. It has illuminated ones that were always there, hiding beneath a veneer of institutional order that turned out to be far thinner than anyone wanted to admit.

Almost six years after COVID-19 upended the global economy, a striking pattern has emerged: the world has split into distinct recovery tracks. While India sustained 5.8% annual growth and China posted 4.9%, Germany’s economy has barely budged—growing just 0.03% annually since the fourth quarter of 2019. Finland, once a beacon of Nordic prosperity, has flatlined entirely. An analysis of cumulative real GDP growth across 41 major economies reveals more than just winners and losers. It exposes fundamental shifts in the […]

1.INTRODUCTION Since stock markets began, investors have sought to identify the exact moment a bear market ends and a new multi-year bull market begins. If investors could determine this with high certainty—avoiding both false positives (premature signals) and false negatives (missed signals)—they could deploy capital at the bull market’s earliest stages and maximize returns. This timing matters because up to 50% of a bull market’s gains occur in the initial rebound phase. At RecessionALERT, we’ve provided timely buy-the-dip signals to […]

0.Change log 26 Sept 2024 : New Section-13 added to include “Job Losers” Sahm version. New Section-14 added “Performance summary” 28 Aug 2024  : New Section-6 added to include “Cycle Low” Sahm version.  1.Introduction In macroeconomics, the Sahm rule, or Sahm rule recession indicator, is a heuristic measure by the United States’ Federal Reserve for determining when an economy has entered a recession. It is useful in real-time evaluation of the business cycle and relies on monthly unemployment data from […]

Introduction The 10-year Treasury note is a debt obligation issued by the United States government with a maturity of 10 years upon initial issuance. A 10-year Treasury note pays interest at a fixed rate once every six months and pays the face value to the holder at maturity. The 10-year Treasury yield is the current rate Treasury notes would pay investors if they bought them today. The U.S. government partially funds itself by issuing 10-year Treasury notes. The U.S. Treasury […]

On 26th February 2002, Paul F. Desmond from Lowry’s Research published a seminal paper titled “Identifying Bear Market Bottoms & New Bull Markets” (  download) This concept measured market breadth, namely daily advancing stocks as a % of advancing and declining stocks as well as points gained as a % of points gained and lost. The research posited that during significant market declines, panic would manifest itself as one or more days when declining stocks exceeded advancing stocks by more than 9-to-1 […]

1. Introduction The Trendex indicators are a suite of proprietary short, medium and long term market timing trailing stops with accompanying market peak & bottom probabilities to allow market participants to minimize as well as assess risk or opportunity for nine of the most popular U.S ETF’s commonly used in diversified portfolios. The Trendex indicators consist of the following components: A set of short, medium and longer-term trailing stops for both longs (uptrends) and shorts (downtrends) Corresponding probabilities of a […]

In our prior research note “Detecting tops of rapid SP500 advances” we introduced a multi-factor model (BIGTOP, available now in the Dashboard) for signaling advance warning of major (infrequent) intra-bull SP500 stock market tops. Whilst not a precise actionable signaling tool, BIGTOP appears very good at warning you of when risks of major market tops are high, allowing you to mitigate downside risk. If you recall, we opined that experience has shown us that detecting market tops is far harder […]

In PART-1 we looked at how we used the RAVI to determine 10-year ahead forecasts on the SP500 Total Return Index with a better than 0.89 correlation, and how we managed to derive 5,3 and 2 year ahead SP500 forecasts with correlations of 0.8, 0.68 and 0.55 respectively. In PART-2 we are going to focus solely on how we derive 1-year ahead forecasts for the Sp500. 2. Deriving 1-year SP-500 forecasts Using the RAVI index regressed to 1-year ahead SP500 […]

Since the onset of Covid-19, there has been a lot of research (and release) of alternative (non traditional) high-frequency data to measure the extent of the economic collapse brought on by coronavirus lockdowns, as well as to measure the post-lockdown economic recovery. Think of Google, Apple and SafeGraph geolocation data to track movement of people around workplaces and residential places, foot and transit traffic data, hotel occupancy, movie ticket sales (BoxOfficeMojo), TSA traveller throughput, seated diners (OpenTable) and so forth. […]