Monday split along the two fault lines running through this market. Crude fell 7.44% to $96.37 as President Trump said there is “no rush” to resume the Iran war, while Oracle’s $20 billion stock-and-bond raise and Marvell’s $115 billion all-stock bid for Lumentum put the cost of financing the AI build-out at the center of a renewed tech selloff, leaving the S&P 500 down 0.51% and the Nasdaq 100 down 1.39% as the Dow rose 0.41%. Cheaper oil bought no policy relief: a 55.5 ISM print and a 3.7% GDPNow estimate kept December hike odds at 76% and lifted the 2-year yield 0.6 bps. Breadth was wide but rotational, with seven of 11 sectors higher, led by Consumer Cyclical (+2.22%) and Consumer Defensive (+1.99%), while Energy (-4.00%) and Technology (-2.47%) lagged, a sign that money is leaving AI hardware rather than equities.

ISM Manufacturing Beats at 55.5 as Production Hits Highest Since November 2021 (ISM, Nov 2)

What they’re saying:The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.5 in October from 54.5 in September, ahead of the 54.6 consensus and the 10th straight month of expansion. The Production Index jumped 2.3 points to 59, its highest since November 2021, and New Orders edged up 0.2 point to 55.5. The Employment Index slipped 0.3 point to 52.4.

The context:The Prices Index eased 2.7 points to 75.2 from 77.9 but remains deep in “increasing” territory, so the beat adds growth without relieving the inflation pressure behind the Fed’s tightening bias. Backlogs fell 1.8 points to 54.6, and Supplier Deliveries showed slowing for an 11th month at 59.1. Fed funds futures still price 76% odds of a December quarter-point hike, per CME data cited by Yahoo Finance.

What to watch:ISM Services PMI on Wednesday, Nov 4 (54.8 expected vs. 54.9 prior), and October nonfarm payrolls on Friday, Nov 6 (65K expected vs. 29K prior).

Construction Spending Drops 1.9% in September as Private Residential Falls 5.5% (Census Bureau, Nov 2)

What they’re saying:Total construction spending fell 1.9% in September to a $2,186.1 billion annual rate, from a revised $2,227.4 billion in August, and was 2.7% below a year earlier. Private residential spending dropped 5.5% to $848.8 billion. Private nonresidential rose 1.1% to $790.6 billion, and public spending was little changed at $546.8 billion (-0.1%).

The context:Housing accounts for the whole decline: residential spending fell about $49 billion at an annual rate, more than the $41 billion drop in the total, while nonresidential building grew. With the MBA 30-year mortgage rate at 7.37% in its latest weekly survey, and the Fed’s loan officer survey reporting weaker demand across all residential mortgage categories except home equity lines, housing is where tighter policy is biting hardest.

What to watch:The MBA 30-year mortgage rate on Wednesday, Nov 4 (7.37% prior).

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Lifts Fourth-Quarter Estimate to 3.7% From 3.2% (Atlanta Fed, Nov 2)

What they’re saying:The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model now estimates fourth-quarter real GDP growth at a 3.7% annual rate, up from 3.2% on October 29. After Monday’s Census Bureau and ISM releases, the nowcast for fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth rose to 2.9% from 2.7%, and real private investment growth to 11.1% from 9.0%.

The context:The model’s first fourth-quarter estimate came alongside the advance third-quarter GDP print of 3.4%, so the tracker now points to slightly faster growth than last quarter rather than a slowdown. A 3.7% pace leaves the Fed little growth argument for stepping back from tightening while inflation gauges such as the ISM Prices Index remain elevated.

What to watch:The next GDPNow update on Wednesday, Nov 4, after the September trade balance (-$108B expected) and ISM Services.

Fed Loan Officer Survey: Tighter Standards for Commercial Real Estate and Nonbank Lenders, Weaker Loan Demand (Federal Reserve, Nov 2)

What they’re saying:The Fed’s October Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, covering roughly the third quarter, found banks tightened standards for all commercial real estate categories and for every type of loan to nondepository financial institutions it asked about. Standards for business loans to large and middle-market firms were basically unchanged, while small-firm standards tightened. Demand was weaker for business loans from firms of all sizes, for all commercial real estate categories and for all residential mortgage categories except home equity lines.

The context:Banks cited a less favorable or more uncertain economic outlook and the “deteriorating financial strength” of nonbank borrowers as the main reasons for tightening to nondepository lenders, a direct read-through to private credit. Credit card demand was stronger, most often because of customers’ spending needs as prices rose, while banks became less likely to approve subprime card applicants. Weaker demand across business and housing credit shows policy restraint working through bank lending ahead of a possible December hike.

What to watch:Whether weaker business borrowing shows up in October payrolls on Friday, Nov 6 (65K expected).

Treasury Sees $618 Billion in Fourth-Quarter Borrowing and $800 Billion in Early 2027 (U.S. Treasury, Nov 2)

What they’re saying:Treasury expects to borrow $618 billion in privately-held net marketable debt in the October-December quarter, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $850 billion. That is $10 billion below its August estimate, mainly because the quarter began with a higher-than-assumed cash balance; excluding that, the estimate is $24 billion higher. For January-March 2027 it expects to borrow $800 billion, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $1.000 trillion.

The context:The underlying financing need rose rather than fell: the $10 billion cut reflects a larger starting cash cushion, and the first-quarter estimate builds the cash balance $150 billion above December’s assumed level. That supply meets a 10-year yield at 4.911% and a 2-year at 4.596%, with the 2s10s curve flattened to about 31.5 bps.

What to watch:Treasury’s quarterly refunding statement on Wednesday, Nov 4, for any change to coupon auction sizes or issuance guidance.

11. Marriott International (MAR): +4.26% | RevPAR Up 6.5%, Well Above Guidance, and the Full-Year Outlook Is Raised

The Numbers:Released: BMO. Adjusted EPS $3.02 vs. $2.84 estimate, up 22% from $2.47; revenue $7.01B vs. $6.93B estimate. Worldwide RevPAR +6.5% (US & Canada +7.4%, international +4.4%) against a 3.5%-4% guide. Adjusted EBITDA $1,512M, up 12%; gross fee revenues $1,522M, up 14%. Full-year RevPAR outlook raised to 4.5%-5.0% from the 3%-3.5% set in August; full-year adjusted EPS $12.07-$12.14 and capital return of at least $4.8B.

The Problem/Win:US demand did the work: RevPAR growth almost doubled the top of guidance, led by a 7.4% gain in the US and Canada. Marriott said the Middle East conflict still weighed on that region but trends improved meaningfully from the second quarter. The pipeline reached a record 4,209 properties and more than 634,000 rooms, and the company bought back 3.5 million shares for $1.3B in the quarter. CEO Anthony Capuano cited “continued momentum across our business.”

The Ripple:Consumer Cyclical was the day’s strongest sector at +2.22%, and airlines and cruise lines rallied with transports (+1.54%) as crude fell. Booking Holdings reports after Tuesday’s close and Airbnb on Thursday.

What It Means:Higher-end US travel demand is accelerating even as rates rise, which supports the consumer-cyclical rotation out of tech.

What to watch:Booking’s room-night growth after Tuesday’s close, against Marriott’s full-year RevPAR guide of 4.5%-5.0%.

12. Apple (AAPL): +0.02% AH | Revenue Up 12% on a 17% iPhone Gain, but Services Slows Below 10%

The Numbers:Released: AMC, fiscal fourth quarter ended September 26. Revenue $114.48B vs. $113.40B estimate, up 12%; diluted EPS $2.10 vs. $1.99 estimate, up 14%. iPhone $57.58B (+17%), Mac $10.79B (+24%), Services $31.57B (+10%), iPad $6.23B (-10%), Wearables, Home and Accessories $8.30B (-8%). Gross margin 47.9%, including a roughly one-point benefit from tariff refunds. Dividend $0.27. The release gave no December-quarter guidance.

The Problem/Win:The iPhone and Mac carried the quarter, with CEO John Ternus calling it the close of “our best fiscal year ever.” Services grew 9.8%, below the double-digit pace investors are used to, and iPad and wearables both fell. CFO Kevan Parekh said Apple generated $28 billion in operating cash flow and returned $28 billion to shareholders in the quarter. Stripping out the tariff refunds, gross margin was about 46.9%.

The Ripple:The shares closed down 1.83% at $338.32 before the report, in the tech selloff, and were flat after hours as the call began. Memory-chip makers are the read-through: Micron fell 5.78% on the day, and memory costs are the main threat to Apple’s margin.

What It Means:Hardware demand is strong; the stock’s direction now rests on December-quarter guidance and how much memory costs eat into margin once tariff refunds fade.

What to watch:December-quarter revenue and gross-margin guidance from the call, then Qualcomm’s handset read after Wednesday’s close.

13. Palantir Technologies (PLTR): -1.31% AH | Revenue Nearly Doubles and Guidance Rises, but Contract Value Grows Just 6%

The Numbers:Released: AMC. Revenue $2.313B vs. $2.18B estimate, up 96%; EPS $0.44 vs. $0.41 estimate. US commercial revenue $984M (+148%), US government $953M (+96%). Adjusted operating margin 62%; Rule of 40 score 158%. Fourth-quarter revenue guide $2.649B-$2.653B. Full-year revenue guidance raised to $8.530B-$8.534B from $8.15B-$8.158B in August; US commercial revenue now more than $3.559B, growth of at least 143%; adjusted free cash flow $4.8B-$5.0B.

The Problem/Win:Revenue keeps accelerating, led by US commercial, but bookings did not keep pace: total contract value was $2.918B, up only 6%, and US commercial contract value $1.463B, up 11%. That gap between revenue growth near 100% and bookings growth in single digits is the likeliest reason the shares slipped after hours despite the raise.

The Ripple:Palantir closed down 3.13% at $178.34 before the report as Technology fell 2.47%. As the largest AI-software reporter of the week, it offers a read on whether AI demand is shifting from hardware to applications.

What It Means:The demand story is intact in reported revenue; the question for a stock priced for perfection is whether slowing deal value foreshadows slower growth in 2027.

What to watch:Management’s explanation of contract-value growth on the call, and whether the after-hours dip extends into Tuesday’s session.

14. Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX): +0.78% AH | Revenue Beats and Guidance Rises as Alyftrek Takes Over From Trikafta; EPS Misses

The Numbers:Released: AMC. Revenue $3.44B vs. $3.42B estimate, up 12%; non-GAAP EPS $4.76 vs. $4.82 estimate ($4.80 a year earlier). GAAP EPS $2.56 included about $500M of costs tied to the Crinetics acquisition, which closed September 1. Trikafta/Kaftrio $2.44B (down from $2.65B), Alyftrek $706M (from $247M), Casgevy $99M, Journavx $58M, and Palsonify $10M in its first contribution. Full-year revenue guidance raised to $13.15B-$13.25B from $13.1B-$13.2B.

The Problem/Win:The cystic fibrosis franchise is shifting patients from Trikafta to the newer Alyftrek as planned, and the newer launches are growing from small bases. The EPS miss reflects higher spending: combined non-GAAP operating expense guidance rose to about $6.0B from $5.65B-$5.75B with Crinetics now consolidated.

The Ripple:Vertex closed down 1.03% at $553.15 before the report, with Healthcare down 0.42%. A $50M raise to the revenue guide is a modest signal for large-cap biotech.

What It Means:Top-line growth is holding while Vertex spends to diversify beyond cystic fibrosis, so the near-term catalyst is regulatory rather than financial.

What to watch:The November 30 FDA decision date for povetacicept in IgA nephropathy.

Q3 2026 earnings season was 60% complete as of FactSet’s October 30 update; the next four sessions bring 20 names above $100 billion, led by AMD on Tuesday, with Monday, November 9 carrying none.

Shopify (SHOP) — BMO, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $0.47; gross merchandise volume heading into the holiday quarter.

Pfizer (PFE) — BMO, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $0.74; full-year guidance and the obesity pipeline.

Eaton (ETN) — BMO, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $3.54; data-centre electrical orders, now tested by Oracle’s equity raise and the AI-capex funding debate.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) — BMO, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $25.37; refining margins, and its outlook after crude’s 7% fall.

AMD (AMD) -7.52% — AMC, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $1.95; data-centre GPU revenue and PC exposure, the first major AI-hardware test since Intel’s report, after Monday’s sell-off.

Amgen (AMGN) — AMC, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $5.79; obesity pipeline updates and the base business.

Arista Networks (ANET) — AMC, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $1.08; AI networking orders from hyperscalers, now read alongside Marvell’s bet on optical connectivity.

Booking Holdings (BKNG) — AMC, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $4.49; room-night growth, against Marriott’s raised RevPAR outlook.

McDonald’s (MCD) — BMO, Wednesday, November 4 — EPS est $3.38; US comparable sales and low-income consumer traffic.

Uber Technologies (UBER) — BMO, Wednesday, November 4 — EPS est $0.86; delivery growth and its response to the DoorDash-Instacart deal.

CVS Health (CVS) — BMO, Wednesday, November 4 — EPS est $1.65; medical cost trends and PBM economics.

Qualcomm (QCOM) — AMC, Wednesday, November 4 — EPS est $2.16; handset chip demand and memory-cost pressure on phone makers, after Apple’s 17% iPhone gain.

McKesson (MCK) — AMC, Wednesday, November 4 — EPS est $10.72; drug distribution volumes, including GLP-1 drugs.

ConocoPhillips (COP) — BMO, Thursday, November 5 — EPS est $3.05; production against its 2.29-2.32 million BOE/d third-quarter guide and cash returns now that WTI is back below $100.

Parker-Hannifin (PH) — BMO, Thursday, November 5 — EPS est $8.21; aerospace orders and backlog.

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) — BMO, Thursday, November 5 — EPS est $1.04; oil sands production growth and capital returns.

Southern Company (SO) — BMO, Thursday, November 5 — EPS est $1.71; data-centre load growth and contracted large-load demand.

Duke Energy (DUK) — BMO, Thursday, November 5 — EPS est $1.86; market cap $100.10B; signed data-centre electric service agreements, which stood at 7.8 gigawatts at midyear, and the $103 billion five-year capital plan.

Airbnb (ABNB) — AMC, Thursday, November 5 — EPS est $2.85; market cap $102.46B; revenue against a $4.69B-$4.77B guide and whether the expected dip in adjusted EBITDA margin is only investment timing.

Enbridge (ENB) — BMO, Friday, November 6 — EPS est $0.34; the $41 billion secured capital backlog and the timing of Mainline Optimization Phase 2.

Excluded as ADRs: Arm ($210.17B) and Novo Nordisk ($135.34B) on November 4, Toyota ($231.90B) and Sony ($149.81B) on November 5. Duke Energy and Airbnb cleared $100 billion since last week’s preview; Cloudflare ($94.42B, November 5) remains below it.

1. Does the Iran decision after Tuesday’s midterms confirm the diplomatic track the oil market priced on Monday, or does a breakdown reverse Brent’s $9.16 fall while Hormuz traffic remains below prewar levels?

2. With the Nasdaq 100 now 10.4% below its October 6 close, can AMD’s report after Tuesday’s close steady AI hardware, or will Oracle’s equity raise and Marvell’s paper-funded deal keep investors focused on how the build-out is financed?

3. Can Friday’s payrolls and Wednesday’s ISM Services shift a December hike priced at 76%, or does growth strong enough to lift GDPNow to 3.7% keep the Fed on course while housing and bank lending weaken?

Intel would need about $128bn of yearly sales for its price to look ordinary, even after Friday’s 28.6% fall. That is arithmetic, not a forecast: what would restore Intel’s 2010-24 average of $2.72 per $1 of sales at a $350bn company value, 63% above the $79bn record of 2021. The price did the work, not the business: since end-2024 the shares are +228% and sales +13%. Friday took back part of that rise without undoing it: at $5.84, buyers still pay twice the norm. Such a price trades on the direction of sales, so a quarter that beat guidance could not protect it. Q4 revenue is forecast at $15-16bn against Q3’s $16.5bn, with gross margin, what Intel keeps after production costs, sliding from 43% to 37.1%. How does a business with data-centre sales +78% guide down? Intel says server chips are limited by supply, which arrives on a factory’s timetable. The drags do not wait: PC chips, the larger business, are -5%, with the slowdown seen lasting through at least mid-2027, and a plant accident in Israel carries costs Intel cannot yet estimate. The high price has also turned into cash: in August Intel raised $23bn selling shares at $95, and those buyers are down 31%; the same sum would now take about 350m shares, not 242m. Demand Intel cannot yet fill pays later; everything else bills now — and buyers are still paying double.

What it means: Households will feel this mainly through index funds and retirement accounts. The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.46% on Friday, so another weak forecast from a big chip maker would reach them quickly. For stock investors, shares priced for growth will be judged on what companies forecast, not what they just reported, and a good quarter may offer little protection. For the economy, a soft PC market into 2027 would mean less spending on computers, while server demand should keep data-centre building going. This reading changes if Intel’s Q4 revenue comes in above the top of its $15-16bn forecast.

The S&P 500 lost 0.57% and the Nasdaq 100 1.98% on the week, after a three-day AI-led rally gave way to Alphabet’s and Intel’s reports, while the Russell 2000 rose 1.29%. The dominant driver was the cost of the AI build-out, as equity sales, bond deals and negative free cash flow turned spending into a financing question. A split Fed, crude above $100 and falling Treasury yields left investors favouring defensives and bonds over metals going into the midterms.

1. The AI Bill Comes Due: Meta Sells $37.5 Billion of Equity, Microsoft Turns to Bonds, and Alphabet Loses About $500 Billion in a Day When Its Free Cash Flow Turns Negative

The core facts:The week opened with Anthropic’s public S-1 for a Nasdaq listing under the ticker ANT, showing first-half revenue of $16.3 billion and a net loss of nearly $81 billion, and with Meta launching an equity raise it priced on Tuesday at $37.5 billion: $25.0 billion of common at $625 and $12.5 billion of mandatory convertible preferred, with AMD committing $1 billion. SpaceX disclosed a roughly $40 billion GPU finance lease with an Apollo-managed entity. On Wednesday Oracle jumped 10.73% after capping new fundraising at $20 billion through May 2030 and targeting $30 billion of free cash flow in fiscal 2029. Thursday broke the rally: Alphabet fell 12.64%, its worst session since its 2004 listing, on $51.4 billion of capex and negative free cash flow of $9.1 billion, while Microsoft, with Azure up 48%, closed down just 0.16% and launched a bond sale of at least $25 billion, its first US high-grade deal since 2017. Amazon’s trailing free cash flow turned to a $42.4 billion outflow.

Why it matters:In five sessions the build-out moved from being paid for out of cash flow to being paid for in public markets, through common stock, convertibles, leases and investment-grade bonds. Investors responded by sorting spenders rather than selling them all: Oracle was rewarded for a funding ceiling, Microsoft was spared on visible returns, and Alphabet was punished for cash burn despite Google Cloud revenue doubling. Chip suppliers buying into a customer’s equity raise deepens the circular financing that sits under the trade. The fingerprints are in the tables: Communication Services fell 7.69% on the week, the worst sector (see the sector rotation table in Section B), with Alphabet and Meta among the top weekly decliners. Jumbo investment-grade supply also competes with Treasuries for duration buyers, and the wider risk is that more of the AI trade now depends on bond and equity markets staying open.

What to watch:Final pricing and long-end spreads on Microsoft’s bonds, an amended Anthropic S-1 with a price range, and Apple and Palantir after the close on Monday, November 2.

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2. Chips Round-Trip in Five Sessions: SK Hynix’s Sold-Out Outlook Lifts the Group to Wednesday, Then Intel’s 28.58% Collapse Takes the Nasdaq 100 to the Brink of a Correction

The core facts:Analyst upgrades of Intel and Broadcom and AMD’s Meta deployment fed the rally on Monday and Tuesday, when Dell rose 7.47% and AMD 5.45%. On Wednesday SK Hynix reported record revenue of ₩104.62 trillion, said DRAM and HBM are effectively sold out through 2029, and added a ₩20 trillion buyback; Sandisk rose 7.66% and Micron 5.86%. Intel’s report after Thursday’s close reversed the move. It guided fourth-quarter revenue to $15 billion-$16 billion and adjusted EPS to $0.25, well short of expectations, and forecast the PC market shrinking about 12% in 2026 and 10% in 2027. On Friday Intel fell 28.58% to $65.76, AMD 10.88%, Qualcomm 11.13%, Dell 10.77%, Sandisk 13.47% despite a beat, and Nvidia 4.22%; ASML lost more than 6% and the KOSPI 3.5%. Five-year credit default swaps on Intel reached an all-time high of 124.75 bps.

Why it matters:The two reports look contradictory and are connected. The memory scarcity that made SK Hynix a record earner is raising device prices, and Intel says that is helping shrink its PC market. So the same AI demand is enriching one part of the chip chain and squeezing another, which leaves the sector harder to trade as a single theme. Friday’s selling was indiscriminate across that divide. The Nasdaq 100 closed the week 9.1% below its October 6 close, with a 10% decline sitting near 28,102 (see the Major Indices table in Section B), while KLA and Analog Devices still ended among the top weekly gainers. The weekly movers table shows the split: equipment and analog names up, PC-exposed names down.

What to watch:AMD and Arista after the close on Tuesday, November 3, for whether PC weakness is Intel’s problem or the market’s, and a Nasdaq 100 close below about 28,102.

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3. Hormuz Saga: Tehran Talks Pull WTI to the Edge of $100, Then Strike Planning, Mines and a Doubling of October Attacks Bring It Back Above $102

The core facts:Monday opened with Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish envoys in Tehran, and WTI fell for two sessions to $100.18 despite unconfirmed Houthi claims of strikes on the East-West pipeline and the Ras Tanura refinery. Wednesday turned on Yemen fighting and reports that the US told Gulf states to prepare for “a short, intense military campaign” after the midterms. On Thursday the Wall Street Journal reported CENTCOM’s commander had briefed President Trump on Iran options, and Europe announced a 42 million-barrel stock release. On Friday UK Maritime Trade Operations reported explosive devices attached to a tanker in Hormuz, which maritime sources called the first known successful limpet-mine strike there since the war began, and counted just over 30 attacks in October, about twice September’s total. The US ordered non-emergency embassy staff out of Riyadh. Qatari mediators returned to Tehran with a draft, which a senior Iranian official called “unacceptable.”

Why it matters:WTI ended almost exactly where it began, which hides the fact that the market spent the week pricing a dated risk window around November 3 rather than barrels already lost. On the January contract Brent rose $1.88 from Monday to $112.34, and Dutch TTF gained 10.30% to its highest close since at least April 15 (see the Energy table in Section B). Energy rose 10.57% over the month. For the Fed, crude above $100 is the channel through which a headline becomes a rate decision, and Chair Warsh named energy prices in his opening remarks on the day two colleagues voted to hike.

What to watch:Iran’s reply to the Qatari draft, Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting, and any US decision around the November 3 midterms.

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4. The Haven That Didn’t Hold: Silver Falls 8.97% on the Week and Gold Breaks $4,000 as Treasuries Rally and Stocks Sell Off

The core facts:Gold closed the week at $3,884.97, silver at $49.13 and platinum at $1,434.40, all three their lowest closes since at least April 15. Most of the damage came in the last two sessions: gold lost 3.63%, silver 6.20% and platinum 3.94% on Friday alone. Kitco put spot gold at its lowest since October 6, 2025, and Reuters put silver down 31% and gold down 10% for the year. Copper fell only 1.60% on Friday and finished the week nearly flat. Analysts quoted by Kitco offered two explanations, margin selling to cover equity losses and oil-driven inflation that keeps the Fed hawkish; neither is established as the cause.

Why it matters:Metals fell through conditions that normally support them: lower yields, a softer dollar and a stock selloff, in the same week the Hormuz attacks intensified. A diversifier failed when equities needed one, leaving Treasuries to do that work alone, as the 10-year fell 7.1 bps on the week (see the Volatility & Treasuries table in Section B). This is now a persistent pattern rather than a one-week wobble: gold also fell 4.30% in the prior week. For allocators, it undercuts the assumption that a war-driven inflation shock is automatically good for gold.

What to watch:The $3,800 level one analyst expects to be tested, and whether the October payrolls report on November 6 changes the hike odds that keep pressure on non-yielding assets.

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5. A Falling Headline Over a Rising Market: Four in Five S&P 500 Stocks Rise on Alphabet’s Record Drop as Small Caps, Transports and Healthcare Finish the Week Higher

The core facts:On Thursday the S&P 500 fell 0.30% and the Nasdaq 100 1.38%, while the Russell 2000 rose 1.01%, the NYSE Composite 1.05% and seven of 11 sectors closed higher; according to AP, four of every five S&P 500 stocks rose. Friday’s 1.82% S&P decline was broader, but four sectors still rose. Over the week the Nasdaq 100 lost 1.98% while the Russell 2000 gained 1.29%, the Dow Transports 1.43% and the NYSE Composite 0.73%. Eight of 11 sectors rose on the week, led by Healthcare at +3.34%, where Lilly, Gilead, Merck and AstraZeneca all beat estimates. Yahoo Finance noted the Defiance ex-Magnificent Seven ETF is up more than 15% this year against 13% for the S&P 500.

Why it matters:The AI drawdown has not yet become a market drawdown. Money left a handful of capex-heavy names and went into healthcare, real estate and financials, helped by falling Treasury yields, which is rotation rather than de-risking. That is the case for optimism, and it has a limit: the cap-weighted indices still carry heavy weights in those names, and Friday showed that breadth can shrink quickly when the selling reaches chips. The VIX, at 19.44, sits almost exactly where it began the week.

What to watch:Whether the Russell 2000 holds above last Friday’s 2,775.90 through the midterms and the October payrolls report on November 6.

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6. Tariffs Become a Bargaining Chip: No Duty on Robotics, Canada Talks Stall, and Automakers Are Promised Relief if They Build in the US

The core facts:Reuters reported on Monday that the US and Canada were negotiating relief from Section 232 tariffs of up to 50% on steel and 25% on autos, possibly before the midterms; by Wednesday a Canadian official cited “limited progress” and Prime Minister Carney said “we’re not at that position right now.” A proclamation signed on Wednesday found that imports of robotics and industrial machinery threaten national security but set no tariff, ordering 180 days of negotiation instead, the second Section 232 case in a week to end that way. On Thursday Reuters reported the administration plans broad tariff relief for automakers making significant US investments, with Audi expected to pay about 10% rather than 15%; no formal notice has been issued. Caterpillar put its quarterly tariff cost at about $600 million.

Why it matters:Taken together, these actions show tariffs being used less as a fixed levy and more as a price negotiated case by case, conditional on investment or concessions. That lowers near-term cost risk for US capital projects and for carmakers already building here, but it makes the effective rate harder to forecast and favours companies with US plants over pure importers. Caterpillar’s 9.25% fall on Thursday is a reminder that the costs already in place still bite (see the weekly movers table in Section B).

What to watch:A Commerce Department notice setting eligibility for auto relief, and any Canadian deal before the November 3 midterms.

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7. An Enforcement Week: DOJ Questions Nvidia’s Hugging Face Deal, the FTC Moves on Cintas, Dollar General and Personalized Pricing, and Prediction Markets Draw Felony Charges

The core facts:On Monday the FTC and 20 states sued Dollar General over register prices (shares -3.22%). On Tuesday Semafor reported the FTC plans to challenge Cintas’s $5.5 billion purchase of UniFirst (UniFirst down about 8% and Cintas about 5% at midday), and the CFTC sued Utah to protect federally registered prediction markets. On Wednesday Reuters reported the Justice Department is examining Nvidia’s $12.9 billion Hugging Face acquisition inside a broader conduct probe of its sales tactics, including alleged tying of GPU allocations to other products, and the FTC ordered nine companies including Walmart, Uber and Delta to explain personalized pricing. On Thursday Utah filed felony charges against Kalshi and its co-founders, and the SEC’s enforcement chief said prediction-market cases are coming. The Wall Street Journal also reported the Labor Department would finalize a PBM fee-disclosure rule.

Why it matters:The deregulatory reading of this administration needs a caveat. Regulators are pressing on market share, pricing power and consumer-facing practices across retail, health care and gig platforms. The Nvidia probe matters most for the index: Nvidia is the market’s largest weight, and a remedy that forced unbundled sales would reach its networking attach rates and the commercial leverage behind its margins. For the rest, the common thread is that business models built on opaque or algorithmic pricing now carry a federal overhang.

What to watch:Any second request on Hugging Face, an FTC vote on Cintas, CVS Health’s results on November 4 for its response to the PBM rule, and the Utah injunction ruling.

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8. From Rumor to Deal in Four Sessions: DoorDash Agrees to Buy Instacart for $17 Billion, Falling 6.10% on the Report and Rising 5.61% on the Announcement

The core facts:The Wall Street Journal reported advanced talks on Monday, valuing Instacart at about $17 billion, and DoorDash fell 6.10% to $168.44 while Instacart rose 7.87%. On Thursday DoorDash confirmed the deal at $65 a share, a 26% premium to Instacart’s October 22 close, with at least 75% of the consideration in cash and holders able to elect cash, stock or a combination. Instacart’s board approved it unanimously. DoorDash, which also reported results that day, closed up 5.61%.

Why it matters:The deal joins the largest US restaurant-delivery network to the leading grocery-delivery platform, sharpening competition with Uber and with Amazon in same-day local commerce. The reversal in the acquirer’s shares says investors moved from fearing the premium to accepting the logic, but the open question is regulatory. Antitrust concerns helped end the same two companies’ 2021 talks, and the deal arrives in a week when the FTC has shown its appetite for horizontal challenges (Story 7) and included both companies in its pricing inquiry.

What to watch:Uber’s results before the open on Wednesday, November 4, for its grocery response, and the FTC’s handling of the merger filing.

↑ back to summary

Fed Holds at 3.75%-4.00% in a 10-2 Vote With Two Dissents for a Hike; Logan Wants “At Least Two More” (Federal Reserve, Wed, Oct 28; Dallas Fed, Fri, Oct 30)

What they’re saying:Governor Cook and Cleveland’s Hammack preferred a quarter-point hike, and the statement said “Economic activity is expanding at a strong pace” and “Inflation remains elevated.” Chair Warsh said he does not believe in forward guidance “absent exigent circumstances, absent a crisis,” and announced a strategy-only FOMC meeting in 2027, leaving seven rate-setting meetings. On Friday Logan said the FOMC “needs to implement at least two more 25-basis-point rate increases,” Musalem that firming “will be necessary, and soon,” and Barkin that the question is pace. The ECB and Bank of Canada faced the same shock: Canada hiked 25 bps to 2.5% on Wednesday and the ECB held at 2.5% on Thursday.

The context:The market heard a hold, not a hawkish signal. The 2-year fell 4.1 bps on the day and 15.1 bps from Tuesday’s peak (see the Volatility & Treasuries table in Section B), and Friday’s speeches moved it just 1.2 bps. Polymarket’s hike contract went 77%, 80%, 77%, 70% across Tuesday to Friday (see the Polymarket table above), falling even as officials argued for more. With guidance withdrawn, every data release now carries more of the December call.

What to watch:Goolsbee on Monday, November 2 and Barkin on Thursday, November 5, ahead of the December 8-9 FOMC meeting.

Q3 GDP Grows 3.4%, Above the 3.2% Forecast, as the Quarterly Price Index Cools to 2.2% (BEA, Thu, Oct 29)

What they’re saying:Real GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate, up from 2.2% in the second quarter, on faster investment and an upturn in government spending, partly offset by lower exports. Final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 4.9%. The GDP price index rose 2.2% against a 3.2% forecast and 6.1% in the second quarter, while quarterly core PCE prices slowed to 2.5% from 3.3%. GDPNow opened the fourth quarter at 3.2%.

The context:A growth beat with cooler prices is the combination bonds wanted: the 10-year fell 11.7 bps on the day and rate-sensitive Real Estate rose 2.18%, although no source tied the bond rally to these gauges specifically. The headline’s help from inventories and government spending means its strength is narrower than 3.4% suggests, although final private demand at 4.9% does not point to any slowdown. It leaves a recession story with little to work on, as Polymarket’s 7% odds show.

What to watch:GDPNow updates on Monday, November 2 and Wednesday, November 4, after ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services.

September PCE Inflation Climbs to 3.6%, In Line, as Real Spending Stalls and Real Income Falls 0.3% (BEA, Thu, Oct 29)

What they’re saying:The PCE price index rose 0.5% on the month and 3.6% on the year, matching forecasts, from 3.4% in August; core rose 0.3% and 3.1%, also in line, from 3.0%. Personal income rose 0.2% against 0.3% expected and spending 0.5% against 0.6%. Real PCE rose by less than 0.1%, real disposable income fell 0.3% and the saving rate stood at 3.8%.

The context:Bonds rallied because the print ruled out an upside surprise, not because it was good. Of September’s $113.1 billion rise in nominal spending, only $2.6 billion survived as real growth. That squeeze sits awkwardly beside a 3.4% GDP quarter, and it matters more for the months ahead than the headline does: households spending out of a 3.8% saving rate have limited room. Crude above $100 (see the Energy table in Section B) argues the pressure continues into October.

What to watch:The preliminary November Michigan survey on Friday, November 6 (prior 48.0), for household inflation expectations.

Layoffs Stay Scarce and Wages Trail Inflation: Claims Slip to 194,000 Against 199,000 Expected; ECI Up 0.8% as Forecast (Labor Department, Thu, Oct 29; BLS, Fri, Oct 30)

What they’re saying:Initial claims fell 1,000 to 194,000 and continuing claims 21,000 to 1,701,000, both below forecasts. The third-quarter Employment Cost Index rose 0.8%, matching estimates, from 0.9%; over 12 months compensation rose 3.4%. Private-industry wages after inflation fell 0.6% over the year. The Chicago PMI’s employment reading jumped 10.3 points to its highest since April 2021.

The context:The labor market removes the case for easing without supplying a wage-driven case for hiking: few firings, little hiring after September’s 29,000 payroll gain, and pay running behind prices. The 2-year moved just 1.2 bps on the day of the ECI (see the Volatility & Treasuries table in Section B). Inflation pressure is coming from energy and input costs instead, with Chicago’s prices-paid index at its highest since December 2021.

What to watch:JOLTS on Tuesday, November 3 (prior 7.079M), then October payrolls and average hourly earnings on Friday, November 6.

Consumer Confidence Jumps to 91.7, Far Above the 81 Forecast, Though Expectations Lag (The Conference Board, Tue, Oct 27)

What they’re saying:The index rose 7.5 points to 91.7 from a revised 84.2. The Present Situation Index rose 8.6 points to 120.4 and the Expectations Index 6.9 points to 72.6. The labor differential improved 2.4 points to +5.3%. Twelve-month inflation expectations eased but stayed at 5.8%. Conference Board economist Fergus McCormick said confidence “remained on the long-term downward trend.”

The context:The 2-year rose 2.5 bps on the day of this 10.7-point beat, though no source tied the move to the release, and that rise did not survive the week. Two days later real income data told the opposite story about household finances. Mastercard’s third-quarter volumes and Starbucks’ 7.9% North America comparable sales suggest people are still spending, which fits the confidence reading better than the income one. Together they point to a consumer drawing on savings, not one in retreat.

What to watch:McDonald’s results on Wednesday, November 4, for low-income traffic, and Michigan sentiment on Friday, November 6.

1. Intel (INTC): −24.38% on the week | A Beat on the Quarter, but a Guide That Halves Expected EPS and No Positive Cash Flow This Year

The Numbers:Released AMC, Thursday, October 29. Revenue $16.51B vs $16.56B estimate (+21% YoY); adjusted EPS $0.52 vs $0.41. Non-GAAP gross margin 44.1%, above the roughly 42% guide. Fourth-quarter guidance: revenue $15B-$16B vs about $17B expected; adjusted EPS $0.25 vs about $0.43. Cash and equivalents $21.84B against $46.32B of long-term debt.

The Problem/Win:PC chips were roughly half of third-quarter revenue, and Intel blamed a sharper-than-expected drop on tough comparisons with last year’s Windows 10 upgrade cycle and on rising PC prices. It said supply constraints limit what it can sell into data centres, and that it does not expect positive cash flow this year. The week had opened with New Street upgrading the stock to Buy on a server-CPU shortage, so the print hit fresh optimism.

The Ripple:BofA cut the stock to Neutral on Friday and Seaport also downgraded it. The US government, Intel’s largest shareholder, faced a hit of nearly $12B on its stake during the session, per Reuters. The wider chip fallout is covered in Section C.

What It Means:The turnaround case now rests on data-centre and foundry execution while the PC base shrinks for two straight years, and the balance sheet leaves less room for error than the shares’ 78.21% year-to-date gain implies.

What to watch:AMD on Tuesday, November 3, for whether PC share shifted rather than shrank.

2. Alphabet (GOOGL): −12.61% on the week | Google Cloud Revenue Doubles, Search Grows 12%, and Quarterly Free Cash Flow Is Negative $9.1B

The Numbers:Released AMC, Wednesday, October 28. Revenue $127.58B vs $127.96B estimate (+25%); diluted EPS $2.12 vs $3.02 and $2.87 a year earlier, after an $8.7B loss on equity securities cut EPS by $0.55. Google Services $96.3B (+11%), Search & other $63.4B (+12%), YouTube ads $11.2B; Google Cloud $30.7B (+103%) with $11.1B of operating income. Operating income $40.6B (+30%), margin 31.8%. Capex $51.4B; trailing twelve-month free cash flow $19.7B.

The Problem/Win:Operating profit was strong and the cloud margin was exceptional, so the shortfall against EPS estimates was largely an investment mark. The issue the market priced was capex consuming all of operating cash flow, alongside Citizens’ concern that search monetisation “appears to be challenged” even with query growth at a five-year high.

The Ripple:The stock dragged Communication Services down 5.84% on the day. Citizens downgraded it to Market Perform. Section C carries the comparison with Microsoft and Amazon.

What It Means:Alphabet needs a capex plateau or visible cloud margin expansion to re-rate. Its stated intent to borrow in the US twice a year makes it a recurring issuer as well as a recurring spender.

What to watch:Any 2027 capex framework and the timing of its next bond sale.

3. Eli Lilly (LLY): +11.31% on the week | Revenue Up 39%, an EPS Beat of Nearly a Third, and 2026 Sales Guidance Raised by $5.5B

The Numbers:Released BMO, Thursday, October 29. Revenue $24.40B vs $22.58B estimate (+39%); non-GAAP EPS $7.48 vs $5.68. 2026 revenue guidance raised to $91B-$92B. Non-GAAP EPS guidance $35.00-$36.00, where an underlying raise of $4.07 at the midpoint was more than offset by $4.57 per share of acquired IPR&D charges. About $900M of quarterly revenue was one-time.

The Problem/Win:Tirzepatide drove the beat, with worldwide volume up 53% while realised prices fell 15% on China’s reimbursement listing. A day earlier retatrutide beat Ozempic 2 mg head-to-head, with weight loss of 19.5%-20.9% against 9.4%, though discontinuations ran higher at the top dose. Oral weight-loss drug Foundayo contributed $184M.

The Ripple:Lilly led Healthcare to the week’s best sector return at +3.34%, with Gilead, Merck and AstraZeneca also rising on their reports, and it pressures Novo Nordisk, which reports on November 4.

What It Means:Volume growth is more than absorbing price cuts, which is the test for the obesity franchise as it expands abroad. In a week that punished capital intensity, Lilly’s beat came from patient volume rather than a spending story.

What to watch:Novo Nordisk’s report on November 4 and Lilly’s 2027 guidance with fourth-quarter results in January.

Q3 2026 earnings season was 60% complete as of FactSet’s October 30 update; the next five sessions bring 22 names above $100 billion, led by Apple, AMD and Palantir, in a week that also includes the November 3 midterms.

Marriott International (MAR) — BMO, Monday, November 2 — EPS est $2.84; market cap $104.12B; US RevPAR trend and travel demand amid Middle East disruption.

Apple (AAPL) — AMC, Monday, November 2 — EPS est $1.99; iPhone demand and the effect of rising memory costs on margins, now sharper after Intel’s warning on device demand.

Palantir (PLTR) — AMC, Monday, November 2 — EPS est $0.41; US commercial revenue growth, a test of AI software demand as AI-linked leadership reverses.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) — AMC, Monday, November 2 — EPS est $4.80; cystic fibrosis franchise growth and new-launch uptake.

Shopify (SHOP) — BMO, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $0.47; gross merchandise volume heading into the holiday quarter.

Pfizer (PFE) — BMO, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $0.73; full-year guidance and the obesity pipeline.

Eaton (ETN) — BMO, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $3.54; data-centre electrical orders against the AI spending concerns.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) — BMO, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $25.37; refining margins, after Exxon’s Energy Products earnings more than doubled.

AMD (AMD) -10.88% — AMC, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $1.95; data-centre GPU revenue and PC exposure, the week’s key test after Intel’s report.

Amgen (AMGN) — AMC, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $5.79; obesity pipeline updates and the base business.

Arista Networks (ANET) -8.34% — AMC, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $1.08; AI networking orders from hyperscalers now under cash-flow scrutiny.

Booking Holdings (BKNG) — AMC, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $4.49; room-night growth and travel demand.

McDonald’s (MCD) — BMO, Wednesday, November 4 — EPS est $3.38; US comparable sales and low-income consumer traffic, after Starbucks’ 7.9% North America comp.

Uber Technologies (UBER) — BMO, Wednesday, November 4 — EPS est $0.86; delivery growth and its response to the DoorDash-Instacart deal.

CVS Health (CVS) — BMO, Wednesday, November 4 — EPS est $1.65; medical cost trends and PBM economics.

Qualcomm (QCOM) -11.13% — AMC, Wednesday, November 4 — EPS est $2.17; handset chip demand and memory-cost pressure on phone makers.

McKesson (MCK) — AMC, Wednesday, November 4 — EPS est $10.72; drug distribution volumes, including GLP-1 drugs.

ConocoPhillips (COP) — BMO, Thursday, November 5 — EPS est $3.05; production against its 2.29-2.32 million BOE/d third-quarter guide and cash returned at $100-plus crude.

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) — BMO, Thursday, November 5 — EPS est $1.04; oil sands production growth and capital returns.

Parker-Hannifin (PH) — BMO, Thursday, November 5 — EPS est $8.21; aerospace orders and backlog, now reported on a 12-month rolling basis.

Southern Company (SO) — BMO, Thursday, November 5 — EPS est $1.71; data-centre load growth and contracted large-load demand.

Enbridge (ENB) — BMO, Friday, November 6 — EPS est $0.34; the $41 billion secured capital backlog and the timing of Mainline Optimization Phase 2.

Excluded as ADRs: Arm and Novo Nordisk (Nov 4), Toyota and Sony (Nov 5). Just below the $100B threshold: Cloudflare ($99.95B, Nov 5 AMC), Duke Energy ($99.33B, Nov 5 BMO) and Airbnb ($98.43B, Nov 5 AMC).

1. Does the oil market’s dated risk resolve on November 3? Traders have tied crude’s premium to escalation after the midterms, while Qatari mediation and Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting offer the other path; a quiet vote could take out part of the premium without any deal.

2. Is PC weakness Intel’s problem or the market’s? AMD and Arista report on Tuesday after falling 10.88% and 8.34% on Friday. Apple’s Monday report adds the memory-cost question on devices, and a Nasdaq 100 close below about 28,102 would mark a 10% decline from October 6.

3. Can a labor market with 29,000 monthly payroll growth carry a December hike? Friday’s Non Farm Payrolls and unemployment rate decide whether Logan’s two-hike path has data behind it, or whether the market’s lower odds were right.

4. Will credit markets keep paying for the build-out? Final pricing and long-end spreads on Microsoft’s bond sale, and any follow-on jumbo issue, will show whether investors treat hyperscaler debt differently after a week that punished negative free cash flow.

WHY THIS CHARTThe auction, nuclear and tariff charts each explained one story, but this one explains a pattern that ran all week: the war’s energy shock landing on Europe while America’s supply keeps it at arm’s length, as Dutch TTF gained 10.30% and the US December contract fell. It also shows why this shock has not behaved like a classic inflation scare in US assets, the same puzzle behind falling Treasury yields and failing metals.

ORIGINAL CHART ANALYSIS — FROM MONDAY’S MIBEurope’s gas costs about a third of its 2022 peak, yet the gap with America is wider. In September Europe averaged $25.49 per million BTU, against $69.98 in August 2022; divided by America’s price, that came to 8.6, above that August’s 7.9. The extreme is coming from the bottom of the fraction. In 2022 the Henry Hub benchmark, America’s reference price, climbed alongside Europe’s to $8.81. This time its futures are -8% since the Iran war began on 28 February, while Europe’s are +179%. The reason is arithmetic. In its October outlook, the Energy Information Administration expects US output to rise by 3.9 billion cubic feet a day in 2027 while exports of liquefied gas — the only way American gas reaches Europe — rise by just 1.0 billion. Exports take about a sixth of what America produces; the rest stays home and competes for American buyers, which is why the agency sees Henry Hub averaging $3.16 next year. The war lifted Europe’s side of the fraction; America’s growing supply keeps the other side pinned near $3 — short of a hard winter at home, with US storage only 1% above normal. That pairing is new: the only two other months since 1997 at 8 or more, December 2021 and March 2022, came in the run-up to and opening of Europe’s Russian gas crisis. An 8x ratio used to take a European emergency — now it takes little more than cheap American gas. What it means: Europe’s gas shock should stay out of American winter bills. Cheap wholesale gas is not cheap gas at home, though: utility gas prices are still up 5% on a year, faster than inflation. US chemical and fertiliser makers, which use gas as fuel and raw material, keep paying a fraction of what European rivals pay. That edge supports their margins while it lasts. For the economy, cheap fuel is a buffer against an energy war abroad. The test is a hard American winter: two straight months above $5 at Henry Hub, last seen in 2022.

US equities fell hard but unevenly, with the S&P 500 down 1.82% and the Nasdaq 100 down 3.46%, as Intel’s warning joined two worries about the AI buildout: memory costs squeezing device demand and spending that partly depends on outside financing. Fed officials offered no cushion: two days after the hold at 3.75%-4.00%, Logan called for at least two more hikes and Musalem for firming “soon,” with CME FedWatch near 76% for a December hike and crude above $100 feeding their inflation case. Hedges were uneven too, as the 10-year yield fell 6.1 bps to 4.923% while gold lost 3.63%, leaving Treasuries to diversify alone. Breadth points to a de-rating of AI-linked leadership rather than a liquidation: the NYSE Composite fell just 0.91%, four sectors rose led by Consumer Defensive (+1.37%) and Energy (+1.33%), and Technology (-4.53%) finished last.

Chicago PMI Misses at 55.3 While Prices Paid Hit Highest Since December 2021 (MNI Chicago Business Barometer, Oct 30)

What they’re saying:The Chicago Business Barometer fell 3.5 points to 55.3 in October from 58.8, below the 56.1 expected, and stayed in expansion for a second month. Production fell 5.2 points and New Orders edged down 0.6 points, both remaining in expansion, while Order Backlogs fell 4.4 points and stayed in contraction for a fourth month. Employment jumped 10.3 points to its highest since April 2021, and Prices Paid rose 8.9 points to their highest since December 2021.

The context:The headline miss overstates the softness, because Supplier Deliveries accounted for the largest drop, down 10.3 points to their lowest since February, and faster deliveries are not weak demand. The more policy-relevant signal is the price component, attributed to costlier chemical and petroleum-based inputs, on a day WTI closed at $102.93 and Brent at $112.34. A regional survey showing firmer hiring and hotter input costs supports the inflation concern Fed officials voiced on Friday, not a slowdown narrative.

What to watch:ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday, November 2 (prior 54.5), especially whether its employment reading (prior 52.7) confirms Chicago’s hiring jump.

Employment Cost Index Rises 0.8% in Q3 as Expected, and Private Real Wages Fall 0.6% Over the Year (BLS, Oct 30)

What they’re saying:Compensation costs for civilian workers rose 0.8% in the three months to September, matching the 0.8% expected and down from 0.9% in the prior quarter. Wages and salaries rose 0.7% against 0.9% in the prior quarter, and benefits rose 0.9% against 1.0%. Over 12 months, civilian compensation rose 3.4%, with wages up 3.1% and benefits up 3.9%.

The context:The print gives hawks no wage-price spiral to point to: private-industry wages after inflation fell 0.6% over the year, against a 0.4% decline in June and a 0.6% gain a year earlier. Within private industry, union compensation rose 4.3% against 3.3% for nonunion workers, and health benefit costs accelerated to 6.4% from 6.0% in June. The 2-year yield closed at 4.590%, down 1.2 bps, with no single confirmed catalyst for the move.

What to watch:October average hourly earnings on Friday, November 6 (prior 0.1% on the month and 3% on the year) and Q3 nonfarm productivity on Thursday, November 5 (prior 1.4%).

Musalem: “Additional Firming of Monetary Policy Will Be Necessary, and Soon” (St. Louis Fed via CNBC, Oct 30)

What they’re saying:“I judge that additional firming of monetary policy will be necessary, and soon,” St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said in prepared remarks to the Shadow Open Market Committee in New York. “Moving sooner in smaller steps while inflation expectations are anchored has a better chance of succeeding without adverse impact on the labor market or economic growth,” he said. He described the economy as “resilient”, the labor market as “remarkably stable and balanced”, financial conditions as ones that “remain accommodative”, and inflation as “too high”.

The context:These were among the first remarks from Fed presidents since Wednesday’s hold at 3.75%-4.00%, a decision Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack opposed in favor of a quarter-point hike. Musalem is not a voter this year, so his argument carries influence rather than a December vote. CME FedWatch priced roughly a 76% chance of a quarter-point hike in December, per CNBC.

What to watch:Chicago Fed President Goolsbee’s speech on Monday, November 2, and October payrolls on Friday, November 6, ahead of the December 8-9 FOMC meeting.

Logan, a Voter, Says FOMC Needs “At Least Two More” Quarter-Point Hikes After Skipping October (Dallas Fed, Oct 30)

What they’re saying:“It remains clear to me, given the current outlook, that the FOMC needs to implement at least two more 25-basis-point rate increases,” Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said at Davidson College, adding that “skipping a meeting does not change the monetary policy destination.” She voted to hold this week and estimates the target range is “at least 50 basis points” below the level that would create “some modest restriction”. After those two moves, she said, “it would make sense in my view to pause and examine economic and financial developments.”

The context:Logan put a number on the hawkish path, implying a range of 4.25%-4.50% from today’s 3.75%-4.00% before any pause. She cited core PCE inflation of 3.1% over the 12 months through September and said the 2% goal has been missed “for nearly six years”. She also argued that higher long-term yields are not much of a drag because they mainly reflect stronger nominal growth and higher neutral-rate expectations; the 10-year closed at 4.923%, down 6.1 bps on the day.

What to watch:JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, November 3 (prior 7.079M), and the October unemployment rate on Friday, November 6 (prior 4.2%), against Logan’s view that the labor market is “balanced and perhaps tightening a bit”.

Barkin Calls Rate Direction “Pretty Straightforward”, With Pace the Open Question (Yahoo Finance, Oct 30)

What they’re saying:“What you see is inflation’s high, demand’s solid, unemployment’s relatively low, and so I think the direction of travel is pretty straightforward,” Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said on SiriusXM Business Radio. “I think the question though is pace.” He added: “Gradual makes sense when you’re not much behind the curve where you want time to learn.”

The context:Barkin’s remarks are the softer edge of Friday’s hawkish chorus, setting no number and no date, in contrast to Musalem’s “soon” and Logan’s two hikes. Prediction markets moved the other way on the session: Polymarket’s contract on another Fed hike in 2026 stood at 70%, down from 77% a day earlier and short of a decisive repricing, while CME FedWatch stood near 76% for a December hike.

What to watch:Barkin’s scheduled speech on Thursday, November 5, the first chance to hear whether next week’s data changes his view on pace.

Treasury Sets I Bond Rate at 5.51%, With 1.40% Fixed Rate the Highest Since November 2006 (TreasuryDirect, Oct 30)

What they’re saying:Series I savings bonds issued from November 1, 2026 through April 30, 2027 will earn a composite 5.51%, up from 4.26% for the prior six months. The fixed rate rises to 1.40% from 0.90%, and the semiannual inflation rate rises to 2.04% from 1.67%.

The context:The inflation component is set by a formula, so its rise is a backward-looking record of recent consumer inflation rather than a policy signal. The fixed rate is Treasury’s own decision, and 1.40% matches the November 2006 setting as the highest in nearly 20 years. The higher fixed rate lifts the real return available to retail savers for the life of the bond, at a time when the 10-year yields 4.923%.

12. Amazon (AMZN): -1.41% | AWS Grows 39%, but EPS Misses and Free Cash Flow Turns Deeply Negative

The Numbers:Released: Thursday AMC. Net sales $201.94B vs $202.22B est; EPS $1.89 vs $1.97 est. AWS revenue +39% to $46.0B. 2026 capex about $220B. Trailing twelve-month free cash flow an outflow of $42.4B. Q4 net sales guidance $240B-$247B. Closed at $240.35.

The Problem/Win:AWS accelerated, but cash generation has reversed under AI spending. Reuters said Amazon also signalled higher capital expenditures next year. The stock recovered most of the steeper after-hours loss of more than 5% to end down 1.41%.

The Ripple:The cash outflow added to the concerns about hyperscaler financing behind Friday’s AI selloff (Story 1). Reuters said Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet fell 1% to 2% on the day.

What It Means:The market gave credit for cloud growth on a poor day for technology, but the free-cash-flow question stays open as spending rises again next year.

13. Intel (INTC): -28.58% | Q4 Guide Falls More Than $1 Billion Short and No Positive Cash Flow Expected This Year

The Numbers:Released: Thursday AMC. Revenue $16.51B vs $16.56B est; adjusted EPS $0.52 vs $0.41 est. Q4 revenue guidance $15B-$16B and adjusted EPS guidance $0.25, both well below consensus. Closed at $65.76.

The Problem/Win:Intel said it does not expect positive cash flow this year, per Reuters, and expects the PC market to contract again in 2027. Its PC chip business was roughly half of third-quarter revenue, while supply constraints limit what it can sell into data centres. Cash and equivalents stood at $21.84B against $46.32B of long-term debt.

The Ripple:The report set off the global chip rout covered in Story 1. The US government, Intel’s largest shareholder, faced a hit of nearly $12B on its stake during the session, per Reuters.

What It Means:After a rally that more than doubled the shares this year, a beat on the quarter could not offset a guide far below expected EPS, and the turnaround case now has a credibility problem as well as an earnings one.

What to watch:AMD’s report on Tuesday, November 3, for evidence on whether PC weakness is an Intel problem or a market one.

14. Gilead Sciences (GILD): +3.06% | Beats by Wide Margins and Raises Its 2026 Sales Outlook as HIV Sales Grow 18%

The Numbers:Released: Thursday AMC. Adjusted EPS $2.55 vs $2.19 est; revenue $8.30B vs $7.81B est. HIV sales $6.2B (+18%); Biktarvy $4.1B (+10%); Yeztugo $305M (+31% sequentially). 2026 product sales guidance raised to $31.0B-$31.3B. Closed at $170.68.

The Problem/Win:The HIV franchise drove the beat, and management now expects about $1B of Yeztugo sales in 2026. The one blemish was a partial clinical hold on the PALISADES-1 and -2 trials of KITE-753, which management said it is investigating over Grade 3 and 4 neurotoxicity, with no deaths reported.

The Ripple:The result fits a strong run for large-cap pharma, with Lilly and Merck also among the session’s gainers as Healthcare rose 0.34%.

What It Means:A defensive growth name delivering a beat and raise was rewarded on a day the market favoured exactly that.

What to watch:The FDA decision on once-weekly oral PrEP expected in early February 2027.

15. Sandisk (SNDK): -13.47% | Beats on Revenue and EPS, but the Shares Fall With the AI-Hardware Complex

The Numbers:Released: Thursday AMC. Fiscal first-quarter revenue $11.03B vs $10.72B est; adjusted EPS $49.51 vs $46.67 est. Per 24/7 Wall St.: data-centre revenue $4.80B (+61% sequentially), December-quarter revenue guidance $12.2B-$12.6B, and an 8-for-1 stock split effective November 19.

The Problem/Win:The beat was clear, and no specific cause for the decline was established beyond the wider rout. Reuters described Sandisk as one of the great beneficiaries of the AI capital-spending boom.

The Ripple:Micron fell 5.30% on the day. Soaring memory prices help Sandisk, but Reuters said they are also hurting Intel’s PC business.

What It Means:A 13% fall after a beat leaves open whether fundamentals or positioning will set the price of memory stocks from here.

16. Starbucks (SBUX): -1.74% | Global Comparable Sales Rise 7.2%; Revenue Misses on the China Transaction

The Numbers:Released: Thursday AMC. Fiscal fourth-quarter non-GAAP EPS $0.80 vs $0.72 est; revenue $9.14B vs $9.22B est, which the release attributes to the China transaction. Global comparable sales +7.2%; North America +7.9%, International +0.9%. Fiscal 2027 guidance was introduced; the figures were not established at writing.

The Problem/Win:Positive transaction growth in North America is the turnaround’s key proof point, and the revenue miss is structural rather than a demand problem.

The Ripple:Strong US comparable sales are a positive read for restaurant demand ahead of McDonald’s report on Wednesday, November 4.

What It Means:The quarter supports the comeback narrative, though a modest decline after a strong comparable-sales print suggests much of it was already in the price.

17. Stryker (SYK): -6.38% | Misses on Revenue and EPS and Cuts Full-Year Guidance

The Numbers:Released: Thursday AMC. Net sales $6.52B vs $6.62B est; adjusted EPS $3.52 vs $3.55 est. Full-year guidance cut to adjusted EPS of $14.80-$14.90, from $14.95-$15.10. Closed at $291.86.

The Problem/Win:CEO Kevin Lobo said the quarter “did fall short of our expectations.” Canaccord downgraded the stock to Hold on Friday, cutting its target to $300 from $385.

The Ripple:Boston Scientific fell 1.66% after TD Cowen also cut it to Hold on Friday, extending a poor week for large-cap medical technology.

What It Means:Medtech’s growth premium is under pressure even as pharma leads Healthcare higher, which makes the sector’s headline strength a poor guide to its parts.

18. ExxonMobil (XOM): +2.16% | Refining Earnings More Than Double and $20 Billion of 2027 Buybacks Are Planned

The Numbers:Released: BMO. Adjusted EPS $4.23 vs $4.12 est; GAAP EPS $3.72; revenue $106.55B vs $104.89B est. Adjusted earnings $17.5B vs $14.7B in the prior quarter. Free cash flow $19.1B. Production 4.496M boe/d. Q4 dividend $1.07.

The Problem/Win:Energy Products drove the quarter, with adjusted earnings of $9.05B vs $4.10B in the prior quarter on higher margins and 100% crude unit utilization at its US Gulf Coast refineries. Upstream adjusted earnings fell to $7.31B from $9.19B on lower prices and the accelerated Guyana entitlement impact. Guyana reached 1 billion barrels of cumulative production.

The Ripple:The margin strength fits Chevron’s record US crude throughput and Valero’s decision to buy and restart a Houston refinery (Story 9). Energy rose 1.33%.

What It Means:This quarter’s gain came through refining rather than the wellhead, so the durability of those margins matters for the $20B buyback plan.

What to watch:Marathon Petroleum on Tuesday, November 3, for confirmation that refining margins are holding into the fourth quarter.

19. AbbVie (ABBV): +1.41% | Skyrizi and Rinvoq Grow More Than 22% as Full-Year EPS Guidance and the Dividend Rise

The Numbers:Released: BMO. Adjusted EPS $3.82 vs $3.73 est; GAAP EPS $2.37; net revenue $17.40B vs $17.32B est (+10.3%). 2026 adjusted EPS guidance raised to $13.95-$13.99 from $13.76-$13.96. Quarterly dividend up 5.2% to $1.82.

The Problem/Win:Skyrizi rose 22.7% to $5.78B and Rinvoq 23.9% to $2.71B, while neuroscience grew 19.4% to $3.39B. Humira fell 31.2% to $683M, oncology was little changed and aesthetics slipped 1.4%.

The Ripple:The report adds to a strong large-cap pharma week, following Lilly, Merck and Bristol Myers on Thursday.

What It Means:Post-Humira growth is now well established, and the raise makes AbbVie a clean defensive holding while technology is being repriced.

20. Chevron (CVX): +1.75% | Adjusted EPS of $5.28 Beats by 8.5% on Record US Refinery Throughput

The Numbers:Released: BMO. Adjusted EPS $5.28 vs $4.87 est; reported earnings $9.9B ($5.06 per share); revenue $67.80B vs $61.82B est. Adjusted earnings $10.4B. Return on capital employed 18%.

The Problem/Win:Chevron reported record crude throughput at its US refineries, with crude utilization at 98%, and US production up 27% from two years ago. It also expanded its acreage in Venezuela.

The Ripple:Together with Exxon’s report, the result puts US refining at the centre of the sector’s earnings this quarter.

What It Means:Energy remains the market’s clearest earnings hedge against the war, with the sector up 49.87% year to date.

21. AstraZeneca (AZN): +7.02% | Beats on EPS, Reconfirms Guidance and Launches a $1.5 Billion Savings Plan

The Numbers:Released: BMO. Core EPS $2.79 vs $2.59 est (+17%); total revenue $16.21B vs $16.00B est (+7%). FY 2026 guidance reconfirmed at constant exchange rates: revenue growth in a mid-to-high single-digit percentage, with core EPS growth broadly similar.

The Problem/Win:Double-digit growth in oncology, respiratory and rare disease offset generic pressure on Farxiga, whose sales fell 25% to about $1.6B per Fierce Pharma. The new “Reshaping for Sustainable Growth” program targets $1.5B in annual savings by 2029, reinvested “principally in the pipeline,” at up to $2B in one-time costs. CFO Aradhana Sarin said: “It won’t lead to a net reduction in jobs.”

The Ripple:The plan follows similar cost programs at large pharma peers facing patent cliffs. CEO Pascal Soriot reaffirmed the $80B 2030 sales ambition.

What It Means:The shares’ move is not attributed to the plan alone, but after reports that a merger with Bristol Myers had fallen through, the company is making a case for growth without a major acquisition.

What to watch:The 23 key clinical readouts Soriot highlighted for 2027, including phase 3 data for Datroway in adjuvant breast cancer.

22. General Dynamics (GD): +0.48% | Revenue Up 12.9% and a 6.8-to-1 Book-to-Bill Takes Backlog to $220 Billion

The Numbers:Released: BMO. Diluted EPS $4.49 vs $4.12 est (+15.7%); revenue $14.57B vs $13.72B est. Operating margin 10.5%. Backlog $220B; cash from operations $1.7B. Market cap $100.81B, just above this section’s threshold.

The Problem/Win:All four segments grew revenue, and the book-to-bill ratio of 6.8-to-1 is the standout. Updated guidance was not established at writing.

The Ripple:The order intake is a positive read for defense demand.

What It Means:A modest share gain on a strong report shows how much backlog strength is already expected, but the orders extend revenue visibility for years.

Q3 2026 earnings season was 60% complete as of FactSet’s October 30 update; the next five sessions bring 22 names above $100 billion, led by Apple, AMD and Palantir, in a week that also includes the November 3 midterms.

Marriott International (MAR) — BMO, Monday, November 2 — EPS est $2.84; market cap $104.12B; US RevPAR trend and travel demand amid Middle East disruption.

Apple (AAPL) — AMC, Monday, November 2 — EPS est $1.99; iPhone demand and the effect of rising memory costs on margins, now sharper after Intel’s warning on device demand.

Palantir (PLTR) — AMC, Monday, November 2 — EPS est $0.41; US commercial revenue growth, a test of AI software demand as AI-linked leadership reverses.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) — AMC, Monday, November 2 — EPS est $4.80; cystic fibrosis franchise growth and new-launch uptake.

Shopify (SHOP) — BMO, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $0.47; gross merchandise volume heading into the holiday quarter.

Pfizer (PFE) — BMO, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $0.73; full-year guidance and the obesity pipeline.

Eaton (ETN) — BMO, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $3.54; data-centre electrical orders against the AI spending concerns.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) — BMO, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $25.37; refining margins, after Exxon’s Energy Products earnings more than doubled.

AMD (AMD) -10.88% — AMC, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $1.95; data-centre GPU revenue and PC exposure, the week’s key test after Intel’s report.

Amgen (AMGN) — AMC, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $5.79; obesity pipeline updates and the base business.

Arista Networks (ANET) -8.34% — AMC, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $1.08; AI networking orders from hyperscalers now under cash-flow scrutiny.

Booking Holdings (BKNG) — AMC, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $4.49; room-night growth and travel demand.

McDonald’s (MCD) — BMO, Wednesday, November 4 — EPS est $3.38; US comparable sales and low-income consumer traffic, after Starbucks’ 7.9% North America comp.

Uber Technologies (UBER) — BMO, Wednesday, November 4 — EPS est $0.86; delivery growth and its response to the DoorDash-Instacart deal.

CVS Health (CVS) — BMO, Wednesday, November 4 — EPS est $1.65; medical cost trends and PBM economics.

Qualcomm (QCOM) -11.13% — AMC, Wednesday, November 4 — EPS est $2.17; handset chip demand and memory-cost pressure on phone makers.

McKesson (MCK) — AMC, Wednesday, November 4 — EPS est $10.72; drug distribution volumes, including GLP-1 drugs.

ConocoPhillips (COP) — BMO, Thursday, November 5 — EPS est $3.05; production against its 2.29-2.32 million BOE/d third-quarter guide and cash returned at $100-plus crude.

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) — BMO, Thursday, November 5 — EPS est $1.04; oil sands production growth and capital returns.

Parker-Hannifin (PH) — BMO, Thursday, November 5 — EPS est $8.21; aerospace orders and backlog, now reported on a 12-month rolling basis.

Southern Company (SO) — BMO, Thursday, November 5 — EPS est $1.71; data-centre load growth and contracted large-load demand.

Enbridge (ENB) — BMO, Friday, November 6 — EPS est $0.34; the $41 billion secured capital backlog and the timing of Mainline Optimization Phase 2.

Excluded as ADRs: Arm and Novo Nordisk (Nov 4), Toyota and Sony (Nov 5). Just below the $100B threshold: Cloudflare ($99.95B, Nov 5 AMC), Duke Energy ($99.33B, Nov 5 BMO) and Airbnb ($98.43B, Nov 5 AMC).

1. Does the chip rout stay a de-rating of AI-linked leaders, or does a Nasdaq 100 close below about 28,102, a 10% decline from its October 6 close, spread the selling across a market where four sectors rose on Friday?

2. Can Friday’s payrolls and Wednesday’s ISM Services shift a December hike that CME FedWatch prices near 76%, or will Logan’s “at least two more” remain the marker for the policy path?

3. Does Iran answer the Qatari draft before Tuesday’s midterms, or does the post-election escalation risk traders are pricing keep Brent above $110?

A tariff can pull car production home only by making imported cars dearer, and 18 months in, it has not. Imports of cars, light trucks and parts have run 10% to 16% below their 2024 level after inflation, yet US assembly lines have built 10.23m cars and light trucks a year since April 2025, against 10.22m in 2024 — still about 1m short of the 2015-19 average, with September’s 9.9m the weakest month since January. The missing link is the showroom sticker. New-vehicle prices are up just 0.6% since March 2025, against about 3.9% a year from 2019 to 2024, and import prices before duties rose only 1.2% in the year to September. Buyers kept coming, at about 16.5m a year. Somewhere between the dock and the dealer the cost is being absorbed, so no carmaker got the signal that justifies committing to a US plant: a home-built model earning more, an imported one losing sales. Price did not pull production home, so the tariff is turning into a bargaining chip. Thursday’s reports, citing two sources, say the administration intends to offer relief to automakers that invest here; Audi, which pays 15% on EU-built cars, is expected to get about 10%. Watch whether that reaches a proclamation, whether new-car prices finally climb, and whether output heads back toward 11m. A tariff cut for whoever builds here is a subsidy wearing a tariff’s clothes.

What it means: For households, the tariff has not yet shown up in new-car prices, which rose 0.6% in the latest year. If that pace climbs well above 1%, the cost will be reaching buyers rather than building plants. For investors, relief tied to US investment would favour carmakers that already build here or have announced plants, and leave pure importers paying full rates. For the economy, new factory jobs and spending will arrive only once plants are committed, and building one takes years. That changes if yearly US output climbs back above 11m, a level last reached in 2016.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.30% to 7,720.39 and the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.38% as Alphabet’s 12.64% collapse on negative free cash flow drew a hard line in the AI trade: capex not yet paying for itself is punished, while Microsoft, with 48% Azure growth, closed down just 0.16%. Beneath the cap-weighted indices it was a rotation, not a retreat: the Russell 2000 and NYSE Composite each rose about 1% and roughly four in five S&P 500 stocks advanced, per AP. Bonds supplied the support: the 10-year fell 11.7 bps to 4.934%, a rally CNBC tied to in-line PCE ruling out an upside inflation surprise even as Q3 GDP beat at 3.4%, and rate-sensitive groups moved with yields. Seven of 11 sectors advanced, led by Real Estate (+2.18%) and Healthcare (+2.11%), while Communication Services (-5.84%) and Technology (-0.97%) carried the losses, marking a narrow, megacap-concentrated decline rather than broad de-risking.

Q3 GDP Grows 3.4%, Beating 3.2% Forecast as Quarterly Price Gauges Cool Sharply (BEA, Oct 29)

What they’re saying:Real GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, above the 3.2% consensus and up from 2.2% in the second quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate. The BEA said the acceleration “primarily reflected an acceleration in investment and an upturn in government spending,” with private inventories and equipment leading investment, while lower exports, led by petroleum, partly offset the gains. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 4.9%, up from 4.6% in Q2.

The context:The price side surprised in the other direction: the GDP price index rose 2.2% against a 3.2% forecast and 6.1% in Q2, while the quarterly PCE price index slowed to 2.1% from 5.0% and core to 2.5% from 3.3%. The federal spending upturn came from nondefense consumption, which the BEA tied to lower Strategic Petroleum Reserve sales. Treasuries rallied despite the growth beat, with the 10-year yield down 11.7 bps to 4.934% and the 2-year down 9.8 bps to 4.602%.

What to watch:Friday’s Q3 Employment Cost Index (8:30 AM ET, 0.8% expected, 0.9% prior) for whether wage costs confirm the cooler quarterly price read, and the next GDPNow update on Monday, November 2.

September PCE Inflation Climbs to 3.6% as Real Spending Stalls and Income Misses (BEA, Oct 29)

What they’re saying:The PCE price index rose 0.5% in September and 3.6% from a year earlier, both matching forecasts, up from 3.4% in August; core PCE rose 0.3% on the month and 3.1% on the year, also in line, from 3.0%. Personal income rose 0.2% against a 0.3% forecast and spending rose 0.5% against 0.6%, but real PCE increased by less than 0.1%, real disposable income fell 0.3% and the personal saving rate stood at 3.8%.

The context:Headline PCE inflation is now 1.8 times the Fed’s 2% target, and the print landed a day after the Fed held at 3.75%-4.00% with Cook and Hammack dissenting in favor of a hike. Of September’s $113.1 billion rise in nominal spending, only $2.6 billion survived as real growth once prices were stripped out, a squeeze on household purchasing power that sits awkwardly beside a 3.4% GDP quarter. Polymarket’s “Another Fed rate hike in 2026?” contract eased to 77% from 80%.

What to watch:Friday’s Q3 Employment Cost Index (0.8% expected) and Fed speaker Musalem’s 12:30 PM ET remarks, the first scheduled Fed appearance after the hold, ahead of the December 9 FOMC decision.

Initial Jobless Claims Slip to 194,000, Below 199,000 Forecast (Labor Department, Oct 29)

What they’re saying:Seasonally adjusted initial claims fell 1,000 to 194,000 in the week ending October 24, below the 199,000 consensus, after the prior week was revised up to 195,000. The four-week average fell 1,250 to 196,750, and continuing claims fell 21,000 to 1,701,000 in the week ending October 17, below the 1,720,000 forecast, with the insured unemployment rate unchanged at 1.1%.

The context:Layoffs remain scarce even though hiring has slowed sharply: September payrolls rose just 29,000, with unemployment at 4.2%. A labor market that is not shedding workers removes the labor-side case for easing and leaves inflation as the deciding variable for a Fed that drew two dissents in favor of a hike on Wednesday.

What to watch:JOLTS on Tuesday, November 3 (prior 7.079M), ADP on Wednesday, November 4 (prior 90K) and claims on Thursday, November 5, ahead of the October jobs report on Friday, November 6.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Opens Fourth-Quarter Tracking at 3.2% (Atlanta Fed, Oct 29)

What they’re saying:The Atlanta Fed’s initial GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter real GDP growth is 3.2%, published October 29. The BEA’s advance estimate of third-quarter growth, 3.4%, came in 0.1 percentage point above the model’s final Q3 nowcast of 3.3%.

The context:The opening read puts Q4 growth close to Q3’s pace, offering no early sign of the slowdown that would ease pressure on the Fed. The tracker’s close final call on Q3 lends weight to the figure, although an initial estimate rests on very little fourth-quarter data.

What to watch:The next update on Monday, November 2, after the ISM Manufacturing PMI (prior 54.5), and again on Wednesday, November 4, after the trade balance and ISM Services reports.

30-Year Mortgage Rate Eases to 7.24%, Still More Than a Point Above Year-Ago Level (Freddie Mac, Oct 29)

What they’re saying:The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.24% as of October 29, down from 7.32% the prior week, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey; a year ago it averaged 6.17%. The 15-year fixed rate fell to 6.60% from 6.68%, against 5.41% a year earlier.

The context:The weekly decline offers marginal relief, but the 30-year rate remains 1.07 points above a year ago, keeping affordability pressure on housing. The 10-year Treasury yield, the benchmark mortgage rates track most closely, fell 11.7 bps to 4.934% on Thursday.

What to watch:The MBA’s weekly 30-year rate on Wednesday, November 4 (prior 7.37%).

12. Microsoft (MSFT): -0.16% | Azure Grows 48% and Commercial Backlog Jumps 73% as Capex Doubles

The Numbers:Released: AMC, Wednesday, October 28. Fiscal first-quarter revenue $92.28B vs $90.62B est (+19%); non-GAAP EPS $4.89 vs $4.72 est, GAAP EPS $4.92 (+32%). Operating income $45.9B (+21%). Azure revenue +48%; Microsoft Cloud revenue $63.9B (+30%). Commercial remaining performance obligation $677B (+73%). Additions to property and equipment $39.4B vs $19.4B a year earlier. New segments: Agents and Infra $76.8B (+25%), Devices and Consumer $15.5B (-3%). The release carried no guidance, which was given on the call.

The Problem/Win:Azure’s acceleration and a backlog that grew faster than revenue show that demand for Microsoft’s AI capacity is outrunning supply. CFO Amy Hood said, “We still have demand that exceeds supply.” The cost is a capex bill that doubled year on year and is now being financed partly in the bond market (Story 4).

The Ripple:Microsoft held essentially flat while Alphabet fell 12.64% on the same night’s report, showing that the market is separating hyperscalers by visible return on spending rather than selling the group.

What It Means:Microsoft is the benchmark for AI monetisation this quarter; a $677B commercial backlog gives unusual visibility on revenue that offsets near-term free-cash-flow pressure.

What to watch:Final pricing of the bond deal and whether Azure capacity additions keep pace with backlog in the December quarter.

13. Alphabet (GOOGL): -12.64% | Cloud Revenue Doubles but Quarterly Free Cash Flow Turns Negative on $51.4B of Capex

The Numbers:Released: AMC, Wednesday, October 28. Revenue $127.58B vs $127.96B est (+25%); diluted EPS $2.12 vs $3.02 est and $2.87 a year earlier, after an $8.7B loss on equity securities cut EPS by $0.55. Google Services $96.3B (+11%), including Search & other $63.4B (+12%) and YouTube ads $11.2B; Google Cloud $30.7B (+103%) with operating income of $11.1B. Operating income $40.6B (+30%), margin 31.8%. Capex (purchases of property and equipment) $51.4B; free cash flow -$9.1B for the quarter, $19.7B trailing twelve months. Class C shares fell 12.29%.

The Problem/Win:Cloud growth was exceptional, and CEO Sundar Pichai said Alphabet is “now on a half-trillion dollar revenue run rate.” The problem was cash: capex consumed all of operating cash flow and more, revenue missed narrowly, and the EPS shortfall, though largely a mark-to-market loss, compounded the headline. Citizens downgraded the stock to Market Perform on search monetisation.

The Ripple:The drop was the stock’s worst since its 2004 listing and dragged Communication Services down 5.84%, spreading through software and semiconductors (Story 1).

What It Means:The market is no longer paying for AI revenue growth that arrives with negative free cash flow; Alphabet now needs either a capex plateau or visible cloud margin expansion to re-rate.

What to watch:Any 2027 capex framework from management and Alphabet’s bond issuance plans, given its stated intent to borrow in the US twice a year.

14. KLA (KLAC): +5.45% | Record $4.14B Quarter and a December Guide Near $4.7B

The Numbers:Released: AMC, Wednesday, October 28. Revenue $4.14B vs $4.04B est (+29% YoY), a record; non-GAAP EPS $1.22 vs $1.19 est. Operating margin 46.1%, the company’s first above 46%; gross margin 62.7%. December-quarter revenue guidance about $4.7B ±$200M, which one analyst note put roughly 5% above consensus; gross margin guided to 62.5% ±1 point. Sources differ on the EPS guide ($1.41 vs $1.44).

The Problem/Win:Management said AI infrastructure and leading-edge logic demand continues and expects wafer fab equipment spending to exceed $200 billion in calendar 2027.

The Ripple:KLA rose on a day semiconductors broadly sold off with Alphabet, showing that equipment demand tied to foundry and memory capacity is being read separately from hyperscaler cash-flow worries.

What It Means:A $200B-plus 2027 equipment outlook from the process-control leader supports the semicap group even as end-market AI spending is questioned.

15. ServiceNow (NOW): -26.95% | EPS Misses and Bookings Growth Is Guided Lower

The Numbers:Released: AMC, Wednesday, October 28. Revenue $4.11B vs $4.09B est; subscription revenue $3.988B (+21%); adjusted EPS $1.00 vs $1.02 est; GAAP EPS $0.27 vs $0.35 est. Current remaining performance obligation (cRPO) growth guided to about 18.5% for the fourth quarter, from 20.5% in the third. Full-year subscription revenue guidance raised slightly to $15.78B-$15.79B; free-cash-flow margin guidance raised to 36%.

The Problem/Win:CEO Bill McDermott attributed the 2-cent miss to interest costs from recent acquisitions. The CFO said strong early renewals pulled about half of the third quarter’s cRPO beat forward, creating a fourth-quarter headwind, and that guidance is what the stock was sold on.

The Ripple:With Fortinet, ServiceNow led a software selloff that took the IGV ETF down about 4% intraday and amplified the AI-monetisation concerns raised by Alphabet (Story 1).

What It Means:A deceleration in forward bookings at a premium software platform raises the bar for every enterprise-software name reporting in the coming weeks.

16. T-Mobile US (TMUS): -0.53% | Beats on EPS, but Account Additions Fall 31%

The Numbers:Released: AMC, Wednesday, October 28. GAAP EPS $3.22 vs $2.89 est; revenue $23.58B vs $23.15B est. Postpaid net account additions 274,000, down 31% from 396,000 a year earlier; total postpaid accounts 34.97M (+3%). Full-year postpaid net account additions now about 1.0M, the midpoint of the prior 950,000-1.05M range. Core adjusted EBITDA guidance $37.35B-$37.45B, adjusted free cash flow $18.7B-$18.8B, postpaid ARPA growth about 3.5%.

The Problem/Win:Profitability and pricing per account are strong, but account growth slowed sharply. The company no longer reports phone net additions or phone churn, and its CFO declined to give a postpaid phone churn figure. Management expects slower EBITDA and account growth in the fourth quarter.

The Ripple:The report landed hours after Bloomberg reported that Deutsche Telekom had held off on a formal combination bid, removing a near-term takeover catalyst.

What It Means:T-Mobile is converting slower subscriber growth into higher revenue per account; the stock’s muted move suggests investors accept that trade for now.

17. Fortinet (FTNT): -20.09% | Beats and Lifts Billings, but Cuts Service Revenue Guidance

The Numbers:Released: AMC, Wednesday, October 28. Adjusted EPS $0.91 vs $0.86 est; revenue $2.08B vs $2.06B est. Billings +29% to $2.34B; product revenue +37%. Billings and revenue outlook raised for the third time this year, but full-year service revenue guidance lowered to $5.15B-$5.17B from $5.18B-$5.22B, below the $5.2B Wall Street estimate, per Bloomberg data.

The Problem/Win:Bloomberg Intelligence said the service cut “implies lower attach rates” from bundled networking and secure access offerings on the firewall platform. Management described part of the weakness as timing on large enterprise deals and delayed activations. BofA downgraded the stock to Neutral with a $140 target, citing a “disappointing slowdown.”

The Ripple:Fortinet and ServiceNow together led software lower on the day.

What It Means:Service revenue is the recurring, high-margin part of the model, so a cut there outweighed a hardware-led beat.

18. Equinix (EQIX): +2.88% | Record Bookings and a Third Straight Guidance Raise

The Numbers:Released: AMC, Wednesday, October 28. Revenue $2.57B vs $2.56B est. AFFO $1,156M, or $11.64 per diluted share, up 20% as reported and 14% on a normalised constant-currency basis. Record annualised gross bookings of $533M (+35%). 2026 guidance raised for a third straight quarter: AFFO up $90M, including $31M from atNorth, with AFFO per share growth now 11%-12%; revenue growth about 12%. Market cap $102.29B on the calendar, up from $99.43B a day earlier. It is included because it now clears the $100B threshold.

The Problem/Win:Record bookings and firm pricing show that data-centre interconnection demand is broadening beyond the hyperscalers’ own builds.

The Ripple:Equinix’s gain fit the day’s Real Estate leadership (+2.18%), helped by the fall in Treasury yields.

What It Means:Data-centre REITs offer AI-infrastructure exposure with contracted cash flows, the profile the market rewarded on a day it punished capex-heavy hyperscalers.

19. Eli Lilly (LLY): +6.63% | Revenue Up 39% and 2026 Sales Guidance Raised by $5.5B

The Numbers:Released: BMO. Revenue $24.40B vs $22.58B est (+39%); non-GAAP EPS $7.48 vs $5.68 est. 2026 revenue guidance raised to $91B-$92B, up $5.5B at the midpoint. Non-GAAP EPS guidance $35.00-$36.00: the underlying raise of $4.07 at the midpoint was more than offset by $4.57 per share of acquired IPR&D charges. About $900M of quarterly revenue was one-time, including $410M of Jardiance milestones, and no further Jardiance milestones remain.

The Problem/Win:Tirzepatide (Mounjaro and Zepbound) drove the beat, with worldwide volume up 53% while realised prices fell 15%, reflecting China’s national reimbursement listing. Oral weight-loss drug Foundayo contributed $184M.

The Ripple:Lilly led Healthcare to a 2.11% gain, the session’s second-best sector, a day after its retatrutide data beat Ozempic head-to-head.

What It Means:Volume growth is more than absorbing price cuts, which is the test for the obesity franchise as it expands internationally; 2027 guidance comes with fourth-quarter results in January.

20. Mastercard (MA): +4.16% | Net Revenue Up 14% as Value-Added Services Grow 19%

The Numbers:Released: BMO. Net revenue $9.81B vs $9.66B est (+14% reported and currency-neutral); adjusted EPS $5.31 vs $5.17 est, GAAP EPS $5.28. Operating income about $5.9B (+16%). Payment network revenue +11%; value-added services +19%. Gross dollar volume +7% in local currency to $3.0T; cross-border volume +11% in local currency, slowing from 13% in Q1 and 12% in Q2. 2026 outlook for low-teens net revenue growth maintained.

The Problem/Win:Services and pricing carried the quarter, offsetting slower cross-border travel. Management cited the Middle East conflict and a new EU customs fee as drags.

The Ripple:The gain supported Financials’ 1.27% advance and confirmed steady US consumer spending, two days after Visa’s report.

What It Means:Card volumes show no consumer retrenchment despite the squeeze on real incomes in Section E, though the slowdown in cross-border growth is worth tracking.

21. Merck (MRK): +3.83% | Beats on EPS and Raises Guidance as Winrevair Nearly Doubles

The Numbers:Released: BMO. Worldwide sales $18.09B vs $17.33B est (+5%, +4% ex-FX); non-GAAP EPS $2.49 vs $2.09 est and $2.58 a year earlier. Keytruda and Keytruda Qlex combined $8.6B (+6%), with subcutaneous Qlex at $830M; Winrevair $694M (+93%). Purchase timing added about $550M to sales. Full-year EPS guidance raised; revenue guidance narrowed to $66.8B-$67.3B.

The Problem/Win:Winrevair’s growth and the shift of Keytruda patients to the subcutaneous Qlex form are the franchise’s answer to Keytruda’s coming patent cliff. The $550M timing benefit flatters the quarter and could weigh on later ones.

The Ripple:With Lilly and Bristol Myers, Merck helped make Healthcare one of the day’s leading sectors.

What It Means:The Qlex conversion rate is now the key measure of how much Keytruda revenue Merck can defend past loss of exclusivity.

22. Caterpillar (CAT): -9.25% | Record $78.1B Backlog, but Tariff Costs and a Low-End Margin Outlook Disappoint

The Numbers:Released: BMO. Adjusted EPS $7.20 vs $7.06 est; revenue $20.68B vs $20.76B est (+17% YoY). Record backlog of $78.1B. Tariff costs of about $600M in the quarter, excluding $128M of IEEPA-related recoveries, and about another $600M expected in Q4. Full-year adjusted operating margin expected near the bottom of the target range; full-year sales guidance unchanged, with moderate Q4 sales growth.

The Problem/Win:Demand is not the issue: power and energy equipment for AI data centres has driven orders to a record. The problem was a beat-and-hold report from a stock priced for upgrades, with tariff and freight costs squeezing margins. Shares fell as much as 12% intraday.

The Ripple:The $65.99-a-share drop was the main drag on the price-weighted Dow (-0.25%). Peers GE Vernova and Vertiv had raised guidance the day before, which made Caterpillar’s hold look weaker by comparison.

What It Means:Tariffs are now the binding constraint on industrial margins even where AI-linked demand is strongest; the stock is off nearly 40% from its June peak, per Yahoo Finance.

23. Linde (LIN): -0.99% | Beats and Raises Full-Year EPS Guidance to $17.82-$17.92

The Numbers:Released: BMO. Adjusted EPS $4.59 vs $4.52 est (+9%); GAAP EPS $3.66 (-11%). Sales $9.40B vs $9.16B est (+9%). Full-year adjusted EPS guidance raised to $17.82-$17.92 (8%-9% growth); Q4 guided to $4.40-$4.50. Total project backlog $11B, with sale-of-gas backlog at $7.9B (from $8.1B in the Q2 release). Operating cash flow $3.2B (+8%); $1.7B returned to shareholders.

The Problem/Win:Pricing and electronics demand delivered another steady beat. The slight decline in the sale-of-gas backlog was not explained in the results.

The Ripple:The stock slipped with Basic Materials (-0.62%), one of the four sectors that fell.

What It Means:Linde remains a defensive compounder; the backlog trend is the one metric to monitor for a slowdown in project awards.

24. TotalEnergies (TTE): n/a | Adjusted Net Income Jumps 51% to About $9.1B on Refining Margins; $2.5B Quarterly Buybacks Set

The Numbers:Released: Thursday, October 29, before the US open (the earnings calendar tags the name after the close, but the results and earnings call are dated October 29 and the shares traded on them that day). Adjusted net income about $9.1B, up roughly 51% from Q2; EPS $4.03 vs $3.82 est; revenue $61.86B vs $55.39B est. Cash flow from operations excluding working capital about $12.26B (+25% QoQ). European refining margin $33.2/bbl vs $13.5/bbl. $2.5B of buybacks approved for each of Q4 2026 and Q1 2027; interim dividend held at €0.90. 2026 cash flow projection kept at $42B-$43B, net investment at $15B. A US-session price change was not available.

The Problem/Win:Refining margins more than doubled and higher gas prices did the heavy lifting, translating the energy shock directly into shareholder returns.

The Ripple:The refining read-through is positive for US refiners ahead of Marathon Petroleum’s report on Tuesday, November 3, and for Exxon and Chevron on Friday.

What It Means:Integrated majors are capturing the diesel squeeze; Europe’s emergency release (Story 7) is the main near-term risk to those margins.

25. Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY): +1.35% | Beats and Raises Revenue Guidance; EPS Guidance Absorbs $0.58 of Deal Charges

The Numbers:Released: BMO. Adjusted EPS $1.35 vs $1.10 est; revenue $13.07B vs $12.72B est (+7%). Full-year revenue guidance raised to $49.75B-$50.25B; non-GAAP EPS guidance $6.35-$6.55, including a $0.58 per share impact from acquired IPR&D and licensing. Growth Portfolio $7.7B. Opdivo about $2.4B (-6%) as patients shift to subcutaneous Opdivo Qvantig ($334M, +28% sequentially). Cobenfy $57M.

The Problem/Win:The Growth Portfolio is now carrying the top line, but Cobenfy’s launch remains slow. Management cited inventory drawdown and the need for faster titration to the effective dose.

The Ripple:Management flagged a $1.5B-$2B revenue step-down for Eliquis in 2027 from European loss of exclusivity, a visible headwind for next year’s numbers.

What It Means:A clean beat sits beside a 2027 cliff that the growth assets have not yet been shown to offset.

26. Altria (MO): +5.15% | Raises Full-Year Guidance as Nicotine Pouch Shipments Grow 13%

The Numbers:Released: BMO. Adjusted EPS $1.52 vs $1.51 est (+4.8%); revenue net of excise taxes $5.44B vs $5.31B est. Full-year adjusted EPS guidance raised to $5.66-$5.74. On! pouch shipments +13.3% to 47.8M cans, though on!’s share of the pouch category fell 130 bps to 13.5%. Total oral tobacco shipments -4.3%.

The Problem/Win:Pricing kept profits growing, and new on! PLUS products drove pouch volumes, despite a shrinking share of a fast-growing category.

The Ripple:Altria’s gain contributed to Consumer Defensive’s 1.32% rise in a defensive rotation.

What It Means:A guidance raise from a high-yield defensive name was well rewarded on a day investors were rotating away from AI mega-caps.

27. Amazon (AMZN): -5.16% AH | AWS Grows 39%, but EPS Misses and Free Cash Flow Turns Deeply Negative

The Numbers:Released: AMC. Net sales $201.94B vs $202.22B est (+12%); EPS $1.89 vs $1.97 est. AWS revenue +39% to $46.0B, its fastest growth in almost five years, above the roughly $45.3B forecast; AWS operating income $17.8B vs $11.4B a year earlier. 2026 capex held at about $220B. Trailing twelve-month free cash flow an outflow of $42.4B vs an inflow of $14.8B a year earlier. Q4 net sales guidance $240B-$247B vs a $244.51B consensus. Regular session close $243.79 (-4.25%); $231.20 after hours at 5:41 PM ET.

The Problem/Win:AWS accelerated decisively, but group earnings missed and cash generation has reversed under the weight of AI infrastructure spending. Shares fell as much as 10% after hours before trimming the loss.

The Ripple:Amazon’s report extends the day’s question about hyperscaler free cash flow (Stories 1 and 4) into Friday’s session.

What It Means:Cloud growth is there, but so is the cash burn, and the market’s reaction to Alphabet suggests the second will weigh more.

What to watch:Friday’s regular-session move relative to the after-hours level, and any 2027 capex indication from the call.

28. Intel (INTC): -17% AH | Q4 Revenue and EPS Guidance Fall Well Short on PC Weakness

The Numbers:Released: AMC. Revenue $16.51B vs $16.56B est (+21% YoY); adjusted EPS $0.52 vs $0.41 est. Non-GAAP gross margin 44.1% (GAAP 43.0%), above the roughly 42% guide. Q4 revenue guidance $15B-$16B vs about $17B expected; adjusted EPS guidance $0.25 vs about $0.43 expected. Regular session close $92.07 (-3.62%); shares fell more than 20% after hours before paring losses.

The Problem/Win:Intel blamed a worse-than-expected drop in PC revenue on difficult comparisons with last year’s Windows 10 end-of-support upgrade cycle and on rising PC prices hurting demand. Supply constraints in data centre also weighed. Intel expects the PC market to contract about 10% in 2027 after a roughly 12% drop in 2026.

The Ripple:A forecast of two years of PC contraction is a negative read for PC makers and their component suppliers, and comes as memory costs push device prices higher.

What It Means:A beat on the quarter has been overwhelmed by a guide that halves expected EPS; the turnaround now depends on data-centre and foundry execution while the PC base shrinks.

29. Gilead Sciences (GILD): AH: n/a | EPS and Revenue Clear Consensus by Wide Margins

The Numbers:Released: AMC. Adjusted EPS $2.55 vs $2.19 est; GAAP EPS $1.94 vs $1.78 est; revenue $8.30B vs $7.81B est. Guidance and product detail were not established at writing. The stock rose 4.03% in the regular session ahead of the report.

The Problem/Win:A 16% EPS beat and 6% revenue beat point to strength in the HIV franchise, where the twice-yearly prevention drug Yeztugo is in launch. The product split was not available at writing.

The Ripple:The report lands on a day Healthcare led the market (+2.11%), with Lilly, Merck and Bristol Myers all beating.

What It Means:The size of the beat matters most if it comes with a raised full-year revenue range; that detail decides Friday’s reaction.

30. Sandisk (SNDK): AH: n/a | Revenue of $11.03B Beats as Data-Centre Sales Jump 61% Sequentially

The Numbers:Released: AMC. Fiscal first-quarter revenue $11.03B vs $10.72B est, above the $10.3B-$10.8B guide; adjusted EPS $49.51 vs $46.67 est. Per 24/7 Wall St.: data-centre revenue $4.80B (+61% sequentially), December-quarter revenue guidance $12.2B-$12.6B, and an 8-for-1 stock split effective November 19. Regular session close $1,330.05 (-5.32%).

The Problem/Win:AI storage demand and NAND price increases are driving revenue well above guidance; 24/7 Wall St. counts it as a sixth straight beat on both lines.

The Ripple:The result is a positive memory-cycle read for Micron, which fell 4.98% in the session.

What It Means:Memory remains the strongest pocket of AI hardware pricing, though the stock was cut nearly in half from June before this report.

31. Starbucks (SBUX): AH: n/a | Global Comparable Sales Rise 7.2%; Revenue Misses on the China Transaction

The Numbers:Released: AMC. Fiscal fourth-quarter non-GAAP EPS $0.80 vs $0.72 est, GAAP EPS $0.59; revenue $9.14B vs $9.22B est, down 4% year on year, which the release attributes to the China transaction. Global comparable store sales +7.2%, from a 5.2% rise in average ticket and a 1.8% rise in transactions; North America +7.9%, International +0.9%. 303 net new stores, ending at 41,607. Fiscal 2027 guidance was introduced in the release; details not established at writing.

The Problem/Win:Positive transaction growth in North America is the turnaround’s key proof point. The revenue miss is structural, from deconsolidating China, rather than a demand problem.

The Ripple:Strong US comps are a positive read for restaurant demand ahead of McDonald’s report on Wednesday, November 4.

What It Means:The quarter supports the comeback narrative; the fiscal 2027 guidance figures will determine whether that is already in the price.

32. Stryker (SYK): AH: n/a | Misses on Revenue and EPS and Cuts Full-Year Guidance

The Numbers:Released: AMC. Net sales $6.52B vs $6.62B est (+7.7%); adjusted EPS $3.52 vs $3.55 est (+10.3%), GAAP EPS $1.96 (-11.7%). Organic growth: MedSurg and Neurotechnology +9.1%, Orthopaedics +5.9%. Full-year guidance cut to organic net sales growth of 6.5%-7.0% and adjusted EPS of $14.80-$14.90, from $14.95-$15.10.

The Problem/Win:CEO Kevin Lobo said the quarter “did fall short of our expectations,” while expecting a solid fourth quarter and momentum into 2027.

The Ripple:A guidance cut from a medtech bellwether comes on the same day Oppenheimer and Jefferies downgraded Boston Scientific, with Oppenheimer saying it had never seen “such a dramatic boom and bust” in medical technology.

What It Means:Two large-cap medtech disappointments in a week put the group’s growth premium under pressure, even as pharma led Healthcare higher.

Q3 2026 earnings season was 24% complete as of FactSet’s October 23 update; the next five sessions bring 27 names above $100 billion, led by Apple, Exxon, AMD and Palantir, in a week that also includes the November 3 midterms.

ExxonMobil (XOM) — BMO, Friday, October 30 — EPS est $4.12; upstream realisations with WTI above $100 and the pace of buybacks, after TotalEnergies’ refining-led beat.

AbbVie (ABBV) — BMO, Friday, October 30 — EPS est $3.73; Skyrizi and Rinvoq growth as the post-Humira growth engine, on a day pharma peers mostly beat.

Chevron (CVX) — BMO, Friday, October 30 — EPS est $4.87; production growth and capital returns at triple-digit crude.

AstraZeneca (AZN) — BMO, Friday, October 30 — EPS est $2.59; oncology growth and US pricing exposure.

General Dynamics (GD) — BMO, Friday, October 30 — EPS est $4.12; market cap $100.33B, just above the threshold; Gulfstream deliveries against the company’s 160-aircraft 2026 target.

Marriott International (MAR) — BMO, Monday, November 2 — EPS est $2.84; market cap $104.22B; US RevPAR trend and travel demand amid Middle East disruption.

Apple (AAPL) — AMC, Monday, November 2 — EPS est $1.99; iPhone demand and the effect of rising memory costs on margins, after Intel forecast a shrinking PC market.

Palantir (PLTR) — AMC, Monday, November 2 — EPS est $0.41; US commercial revenue growth, a test of AI software demand after ServiceNow’s sell-off.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) — AMC, Monday, November 2 — EPS est $4.80; cystic fibrosis franchise growth and new-launch uptake.

Shopify (SHOP) — BMO, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $0.47; gross merchandise volume heading into the holiday quarter.

Pfizer (PFE) — BMO, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $0.73; full-year guidance and the obesity pipeline.

Eaton (ETN) — BMO, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $3.54; data-centre electrical orders, after Caterpillar’s hold and GE Vernova’s raise.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) — BMO, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $25.37; refining margins, after TotalEnergies’ European margin more than doubled.

AMD (AMD) — AMC, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $1.95; data-centre GPU revenue and the AI demand outlook, the week’s key semiconductor test.

Amgen (AMGN) — AMC, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $5.79; obesity pipeline updates and the base business.

Arista Networks (ANET) — AMC, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $1.08; AI networking orders from hyperscalers now under cash-flow scrutiny.

Booking Holdings (BKNG) — AMC, Tuesday, November 3 — EPS est $4.49; room-night growth and travel demand.

McDonald’s (MCD) — BMO, Wednesday, November 4 — EPS est $3.38; US comparable sales and low-income consumer traffic, after Starbucks’ 7.9% North America comp.

Uber Technologies (UBER) — BMO, Wednesday, November 4 — EPS est $0.86; delivery growth and its response to the DoorDash-Instacart deal.

CVS Health (CVS) — BMO, Wednesday, November 4 — EPS est $1.65; medical cost trends and PBM economics.

Qualcomm (QCOM) — AMC, Wednesday, November 4 — EPS est $2.17; handset chip demand and memory-cost pressure on phone makers.

McKesson (MCK) — AMC, Wednesday, November 4 — EPS est $10.72; drug distribution volumes, including GLP-1 drugs.

ConocoPhillips (COP) — BMO, Thursday, November 5 — EPS est $3.05; production against its 2.29-2.32 million BOE/d third-quarter guide and cash returned at $100-plus crude.

Parker-Hannifin (PH) — BMO, Thursday, November 5 — EPS est $8.21; aerospace orders and backlog, now reported on a 12-month rolling basis.

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) — BMO, Thursday, November 5 — EPS est $1.04; oil sands production growth and capital returns.

Southern Company (SO) — BMO, Thursday, November 5 — EPS est $1.71; data-centre load growth and contracted large-load demand, against guidance for 2026 adjusted EPS near the top of $4.50-$4.60.

Cloudflare (NET) — AMC, Thursday, November 5 — EPS est $0.34; revenue against the $736M-$737M guide and adoption of its agentic AI platform.

Excluded as ADRs: BP (Oct 30), Arm and Novo Nordisk (Nov 4), Toyota and Sony (Nov 5). Just below the $100B threshold: Airbnb ($99.67B, Nov 5 AMC), Duke Energy ($98.16B, Nov 5 BMO) and Datadog ($95.46B, Nov 4 BMO).

1. Does Friday’s Employment Cost Index confirm the cooler quarterly price read and let the 10-year hold below 5%, or does a hot wage print revive the December hike that two Fed dissenters already wanted?

2. Will the market keep punishing negative free cash flow through Amazon’s first full session on Friday, and how will Microsoft’s jumbo bond sale price at the long end as hyperscaler debt supply competes with Treasuries?

3. With Brent above $110 and both escalation and diplomacy live, does Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting or an independently confirmed Hormuz incident break the crude stalemate before Tuesday’s midterms?

No chart compelling enough for today.

Stocks rose as the Fed’s hawkish hold met a dovish market read: the S&P 500 gained 0.28% and the Nasdaq 100 0.55%, and the 2-year yield fell 4.1 bps after the statement dropped September’s promise of a “timelier” return to 2% and Warsh declined to give forward guidance. Leadership came from the AI supply chain rather than rates, as SK Hynix’s sold-out-through-2029 signal lifted memory and equipment makers and Oracle’s 10.73% jump on a $20 billion fundraising cap eased fears over debt-funded build-outs. WTI’s 2.05% rise to $101.95 keeps energy inside the Fed’s reaction function, the pressure Warsh cited on the day two colleagues dissented for a hike. Seven of 11 sectors rose, led by Technology (+0.99%), while Utilities, Real Estate and Consumer Defensive lagged and the Dow Transports fell 2.46% on freight earnings, a growth-over-defence rotation rather than a broad risk-on day.

Fed Holds at 3.75%-4.00% in a 10-2 Vote as Cook and Hammack Dissent in Favour of a Hike (Federal Reserve, Oct 28)

What they’re saying:The FOMC left the federal funds target range at 3.75%-4.00% on a 10-2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack preferring to raise it by a quarter point at this meeting. The statement said “Economic activity is expanding at a strong pace” and “Inflation remains elevated,” adding that uncertainty “remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments” and that more information will help the Committee determine the appropriate policy stance.

The context:This is a pause after September’s hike, not an end to tightening: two voters wanted another increase now, and a Governor joining a regional president in a hawkish dissent widens the camp beyond the regional banks. Markets read the hold as relief at the front end, with the 2-year yield down 4.1 bps to 4.700% while the 10-year was essentially flat at 4.999% (+0.5 bps), steepening 2s10s to 29.9 bps. The VIX fell 3.60% and the dollar index slipped 0.17%. Polymarket’s “Another Fed rate hike in 2026?” market, which settles at the December 9 FOMC, rose to 80% from 77%.

What to watch:Thursday’s September PCE (core expected +0.3% MoM, headline YoY expected 3.6% from 3.4%) and Q3 advance GDP; Friday’s Q3 Employment Cost Index; and St. Louis Fed President Musalem on Friday, the first scheduled Fed speech after the blackout.

Goods Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Widens to $134.9 Billion in September as Imports Outpace Exports (Census Bureau, Oct 28)

What they’re saying:The advance goods trade deficit widened to $134.9 billion in September from $132.1 billion in August, against a consensus of $130 billion. Exports rose $5.3 billion to $209.2 billion, but imports rose $8.1 billion to $344.1 billion. In the same report, advance wholesale inventories rose 0.6% to $1,011.5 billion (consensus +0.5%), up 7.4% year on year, and retail inventories rose 0.3% to $885.3 billion.

The context:A miss of roughly $5 billion lands directly on Thursday’s GDP print. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow cut its estimate of net exports’ contribution to Q3 growth to -2.95 percentage points from -2.86 on this report, a heavy drag already offset by domestic demand. Inventory building is the other side of the trade: imports are partly landing on shelves, which adds to measured output this quarter but can borrow from the next.

What to watch:Thursday’s Q3 advance GDP for the net-export and inventory contributions; the full September trade report on Wednesday, November 4 (August deficit $105.6 billion including services).

GDPNow Closes Q3 at 3.3%, Above the 3.2% Consensus for Thursday’s Advance GDP (Atlanta Fed, Oct 28)

What they’re saying:The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model put third-quarter real GDP growth at 3.3% (seasonally adjusted annual rate), down from 3.4% on October 27. After the morning’s Census advance indicators, the nowcast of real gross private domestic investment growth slipped to 19.1% from 19.4%, and the net-export contribution fell to -2.95 percentage points from -2.86. This is the model’s last Q3 estimate; its first Q4 estimate comes Thursday.

The context:The final nowcast sits a tenth above the 3.2% consensus for the advance estimate and well above Q2’s 2.2%, which supports the FOMC statement’s “strong pace” language. Investment growth near 19% is carrying the quarter against a net-export drag of almost three points. Growth running above 3% with inflation elevated is the combination that keeps a December hike live.

What to watch:Thursday’s Q3 advance GDP (consensus 3.2%) and GDP price index (consensus 3.5% from 6.1%), and GDPNow’s first Q4 estimate the same day.

EIA Reports Surprise 1.9 Million-Barrel Crude Draw as WTI Closes Above $100 (EIA, Oct 28)

What they’re saying:US commercial crude inventories fell 1.892 million barrels to 410.6 million in the week ending October 23, against a consensus of no change, leaving stocks 5.3 million barrels below a year earlier. Gasoline stocks rose 3.87 million barrels against an expected 0.9 million draw. WTI closed at $101.95/bbl, up 2.05%, and Reuters tied the gain to renewed Middle East supply worries as well as the draw.

The context:This is the second straight weekly crude draw (prior week -3.06 million barrels), and it keeps oil above $100 as the Fed weighs a further hike. The large gasoline build tempers the read-through to pump prices, but sustained triple-digit crude feeds headline inflation at a moment when September headline PCE is already expected to accelerate to 3.6% year on year.

What to watch:Thursday’s September PCE price index (headline +0.5% MoM expected); the API inventory report on Tuesday, November 3 and EIA’s next weekly report on Wednesday, November 4.

Mortgage Applications Rise 3.4% as 30-Year Rate Falls to 7.37%, but Purchases Run 18% Below Last Year (MBA, Oct 28)

What they’re saying:The MBA’s Market Composite Index rose 3.4% in the week ending October 23, as the average 30-year fixed rate fell for a second week to 7.37% from 7.41%, its lowest in three weeks. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index rose 4% but was 18% below the same week last year, and refinance applications rose 3% but were 61% lower year on year. The adjustable-rate share climbed to 11.3%, which the MBA called “the highest level in more than a year.”

The context:The weekly bounce does not change the trend. MBA Deputy Chief Economist Joel Kan said rates are “still more than a percentage point higher than the same week last year” and that “many homebuyers have put their purchase plans on hold.” The shift toward ARMs to lower monthly payments is a stress signal on affordability, with the 10-year Treasury yield holding near 5%.

What to watch:The next MBA weekly survey on Wednesday, November 4, and whether a post-FOMC move in the 10-year yield extends or reverses the two-week decline in mortgage rates.

13. Visa (V): -0.31% | Fiscal Q4 Beat, but Fiscal 2027 EPS Growth Guided Slower Than This Year

The Numbers:Released AMC, Tuesday, October 27. Adjusted EPS $3.48 vs $3.44 estimate; net revenue $12.14 billion vs $12.09 billion, up 13%. Cross-border volume up 14%. Fiscal 2027 EPS growth guided to low double digits to low teens, slower than this year. Quarterly dividend raised 16% to $0.78.

The Problem/Win:The quarter cleared estimates on both lines and cross-border travel spending stayed strong. The guide set the tone, though: earnings growth stepping down next year shifts the debate from volume strength to whether pricing and value-added services can sustain margins.

The Ripple:Financials rose 0.20% on the day; Mastercard reports before Thursday’s open and will be read against Visa’s cross-border figures.

What It Means:A small decline on a clean beat says the market is pricing a deceleration year. The 16% dividend increase signals confidence in cash generation even as growth slows.

What to watch:Mastercard’s cross-border growth and 2027 commentary before Thursday’s open.

14. Seagate Technology (STX): +4.51% | Revenue Up 61% and a December-Quarter Guide Far Above Consensus; Shares Recover With the Memory Rally

The Numbers:Released AMC, Tuesday, October 27. Non-GAAP EPS $7.68 vs $7.45 estimate; revenue $4.23 billion vs $4.15 billion, up 61%. Fiscal Q2 guidance: revenue $4.8 billion plus or minus $100 million and EPS $9.20 plus or minus $0.20, far above consensus.

The Problem/Win:Mass-capacity storage demand from AI data centers drove another sharp step-up. The guide implies revenue rising roughly 13% quarter on quarter. The shares traded lower after hours on Tuesday, then closed up 4.51% as SK Hynix’s sold-out outlook lifted the whole storage and memory complex.

The Ripple:Sandisk (+7.66%) and Micron (+5.86%) led the memory group’s gains; Western Digital is the closest read-across in hard drives.

What It Means:Storage now has pricing power alongside DRAM and HBM. The overnight fade reversing into a gain shows how much the group trades on sector-wide supply signals rather than any single print.

What to watch:Sandisk’s results after Thursday’s close for confirmation of NAND pricing strength.

15. GE Vernova (GEV): -1.90% | Orders Nearly Double, 2026 Guidance Raised, a $9.0 Billion Trench Deal and a Doubled Buyback, but Shares Close Lower

The Numbers:Released BMO. EPS $4.81 vs $4.03 estimate; revenue $12.64 billion vs $11.99 billion, up 27% (18% organically). Orders $29.3 billion, up 96% organically; backlog $197 billion, up $20 billion in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margin 15.4%; free cash flow $5.4 billion. 2026 guidance raised: revenue $46.5-$47.5 billion (from $45.5-$46.5 billion), adjusted EBITDA margin 13.5%-14.5% (from 12%-14%) and free cash flow $16-$17 billion (from $11.5-$12.5 billion).

The Problem/Win:Power carried the quarter: orders of $21.8 billion, up 178% organically, and a 21.4% segment margin. Electrification orders fell 9% organically. Alongside the results, GE Vernova agreed to buy high-voltage grid equipment maker Trench Group from Triton for $9.0 billion, expected to close in late 2027, and doubled its buyback authorization to $20 billion.

The Ripple:The shares rose before the open and then closed down 1.90%, making GE Vernova one of the session’s mega-cap decliners; Industrials slipped 0.10%.

What It Means:Gas-turbine demand from data centers is running well ahead of plan, but after a large run the stock now needs more than a beat-and-raise to rise. The Electrification order decline is the detail the market chose to weigh.

What to watch:Whether Electrification orders recover next quarter, and the financing plan for Trench, which the company has not yet set out.

16. Amphenol (APH): +3.52% | Revenue Beats by $740 Million and Fourth-Quarter Sales Are Guided About 60% Above Last Year

The Numbers:Released BMO. Adjusted EPS $0.80 vs $0.73 estimate; revenue $10.23 billion vs $9.49 billion. Q4 guidance: sales of about $10.3-$10.5 billion, roughly 60% above a year earlier, and adjusted EPS of $0.81-$0.83. Full-year 2026 sales are now expected at $36.9-$37.1 billion.

The Problem/Win:AI data-center interconnect demand and the CommScope acquisition drove the beat. Amphenol now expects $5.1 billion of 2026 CommScope sales, up from $4.6 billion, with $0.18 of EPS accretion. The guidance excludes several pending acquisitions.

The Ripple:Its gain fits the day’s AI-hardware leadership, with Technology up 0.99%; TE Connectivity, a smaller connector peer, fell 1.82% after its own report.

What It Means:Amphenol is one of the cleanest ways the AI build-out reaches earnings outside the chipmakers. A guide this far above last year confirms the demand is still accelerating.

What to watch:Hyperscaler capex guidance from Microsoft and Alphabet tonight and Amazon on Thursday, which sets interconnect demand for 2027.

17. UBS Group (UBS): -0.21% | Revenue Beat, Adjusted EPS Below Estimates

The Numbers:Released BMO. EPS $0.85 vs $0.91 estimate; GAAP EPS $0.93 vs $0.91; revenue $13.39 billion vs $13.07 billion. Figures from the earnings calendar.

The Problem/Win:Revenue came in ahead of expectations while adjusted earnings fell short. Segment detail on wealth-management flows and capital return could not be confirmed before publication.

The Ripple:European bank reactions to this morning’s reports were widely dispersed: Santander fell 6.26% while Deutsche Bank rose 4.33%.

What It Means:A near-flat reaction to mixed headline numbers suggests investors are waiting for the detail on wealth flows and the capital-return path rather than reacting to the EPS miss.

18. Automatic Data Processing (ADP): -2.64% | Small Beat and a Raised Full-Year Outlook, but Shares Fall

The Numbers:Released BMO. Adjusted EPS $2.82 vs $2.77 estimate, up 13%; revenue $5.49 billion vs $5.48 billion, up 6% (6% organic constant currency). ADP raised its fiscal 2027 guidance for revenue growth and adjusted EPS growth, from prior ranges of 5%-6% and 9%-11%; the new ranges were not confirmed before publication.

The Problem/Win:A raised outlook in the first quarter of the fiscal year is a solid start. But revenue only matched expectations, and the shares sold off on a print that offered little upside surprise.

The Ripple:Read-across to Paychex and payroll processors; ADP also announced an embedded small-business payroll product with PNC Bank the same day.

What It Means:ADP’s revenue tracks employment and client wages, so a mid-single-digit pace with a raised guide is consistent with a labour market the Fed chair called “quite positive.”

What to watch:The size of the guidance raise once the full release and call details are digested, and Thursday’s jobless claims.

19. Phillips 66 (PSX): +1.95% | EPS Beats by 20% on Wider Crack Spreads as Revenue Misses

The Numbers:Released BMO. EPS $14.08 vs $11.73 estimate; revenue $42.41 billion vs $44.91 billion. Adjusted earnings $5.6 billion, up from $3.8 billion in the second quarter.

The Problem/Win:Refining drove the quarter. The company attributed the rise in refining income to higher realized margins and volumes as market crack spreads widened. Marketing, chemicals and midstream earnings fell from the second quarter on weaker fuel-marketing, polyethylene and gas-transport margins.

The Ripple:Energy rose 0.55% as crude climbed; Marathon Petroleum reports November 3 and Valero is the closest refining read-across.

What It Means:Refiners are the clearest equity winners from triple-digit crude while product cracks stay wide. The revenue miss mostly reflects pass-through pricing rather than weaker volumes.

What to watch:Marathon Petroleum’s results on November 3 and the direction of diesel cracks into winter.

20. Microsoft (MSFT): AH: n/a | Azure Accelerates to 48% Growth and Revenue Beats by $1.7 Billion as Spending on Property and Equipment Doubles

The Numbers:Released AMC, fiscal Q1 2027 (quarter ended September 30). Revenue $92.28 billion vs $90.62 billion estimate, up 19%; GAAP EPS $4.92 and non-GAAP EPS $4.89 vs $4.72 estimate. Microsoft Cloud revenue $63.9 billion, up 30%; Azure revenue up 48% (48% in constant currency) against guidance of about 45%. Operating income $45.9 billion, up 21%. Additions to property and equipment $39.4 billion, against $19.4 billion a year earlier.

The Problem/Win:Azure beat its own guide by about three points and Microsoft Cloud growth accelerated, which CFO Amy Hood highlighted. The quarter is the first reported under the recast segments: Agents and Infra ($76.8 billion, up 25%) and Devices and Consumer ($15.5 billion, down 3%).

The Ripple:The Azure figure is the first hyperscaler read of the week for the memory, equipment and interconnect names that led today’s session, and for Oracle’s capacity plan.

What It Means:Demand is not the constraint. The market’s verdict will turn on whether doubling capital spending is matched by guidance showing the returns, which the call will need to supply.

What to watch:Fiscal Q2 Azure guidance and full-year capex commentary on the call, and the stock’s opening move Thursday.

21. Alphabet (GOOGL): AH: n/a | Revenue Slightly Below Estimates; Calendar Shows GAAP EPS Well Short

The Numbers:Released AMC. Revenue $127.58 billion vs $127.96 billion estimate. The earnings calendar records GAAP EPS of $2.12 against a $3.02 estimate; adjusted EPS was not yet posted. Figures from the earnings calendar; the company release had not been confirmed before publication.

The Problem/Win:On the calendar figures the quarter missed on both lines. What drove the gap in GAAP EPS, whether an operating shortfall or a one-time charge or investment mark, had not been established at publication, and it is the number that decides how the print is read.

The Ripple:Alphabet’s cloud growth and capex guidance feed directly into the chip, memory and interconnect names that led today; Communication Services is down 4.76% over the past week.

What It Means:Until the composition of earnings is known, treat the headline miss as unexplained rather than as a demand signal.

What to watch:Google Cloud revenue growth, the 2026 capex range and the reconciliation of GAAP to adjusted EPS in the release and on the call.

22. KLA (KLAC): AH: n/a | Beats on Revenue and EPS After a 3.33% Regular-Session Gain

The Numbers:Released AMC, September quarter. EPS $1.22 vs $1.19 estimate; GAAP EPS $1.18 vs $1.16; revenue $4.14 billion vs $4.04 billion, above the company’s prior guide of about $4.0 billion plus or minus $200 million. Figures from the earnings calendar.

The Problem/Win:A beat in the upper half of the guide range, delivered on the day a major memory customer said its supply is sold out through 2029. December-quarter guidance was not confirmed before publication.

The Ripple:Lam Research (+5.39%) and Applied Materials (+5.07%) led the equipment rally into the print; KLA’s guide will be read across the group.

What It Means:Process-control spending is a leading indicator for new fab capacity. A beat now supports the case that memory makers are converting sold-out demand into equipment orders.

What to watch:The December-quarter revenue guide against the roughly $4.5 billion implied by management’s earlier second-half comments.

23. ServiceNow (NOW): AH: n/a | Subscription Revenue Up 21% and AI Contract-Value Target Raised; GAAP EPS Below Estimate

The Numbers:Released AMC. Subscription revenue $3.988 billion, up 21% (20.5% in constant currency); total revenue $4.11 billion vs $4.09 billion estimate. GAAP EPS $0.27 vs $0.35 estimate. Remaining performance obligations $29.7 billion. 2026 AI annual contract value target raised to $1.7 billion.

The Problem/Win:Subscription growth held above 20% and the AI target went up, but GAAP earnings missed. ServiceNow also announced an expanded partnership with OpenAI covering ChatGPT integration, a joint cybersecurity product and Codex in its workflow tools, with no financial terms disclosed.

The Ripple:The print is a read on whether enterprise software can monetise AI agents; Palo Alto Networks fell 1.79% in the regular session with no specific catalyst identified.

What It Means:Steady growth plus a higher AI target supports the thesis. The GAAP shortfall puts the focus on margins and stock-based compensation.

What to watch:Fourth-quarter subscription revenue guidance and current remaining performance obligation growth on the call.

24. T-Mobile US (TMUS): AH: n/a | Beats on GAAP EPS and Revenue on the Day Deutsche Telekom’s Combination Plan Stalls

The Numbers:Released AMC. GAAP EPS $3.22 vs $2.89 estimate; revenue $23.58 billion vs $23.15 billion. Figures from the earnings calendar; subscriber additions and guidance were not confirmed before publication.

The Problem/Win:Both headline lines beat. The context is unusual: hours earlier Bloomberg reported that Deutsche Telekom has opted against a formal bid to combine with T-Mobile for now (Story 7).

The Ripple:Verizon and AT&T are the read-across on postpaid phone competition and pricing.

What It Means:Thursday’s move will blend the earnings beat with the loss of near-term deal optionality, so the stock’s reaction will not be a clean read on the quarter.

What to watch:Postpaid phone net additions and any updated 2026 guidance, plus management comment on the parent’s plans.

25. Fortinet (FTNT): AH: n/a | EPS and Revenue Beat, With Revenue Inside the Company’s Guided Range

The Numbers:Released AMC. EPS $0.91 vs $0.86 estimate, above the company’s guide of $0.83-$0.87; GAAP EPS $0.86 vs $0.77; revenue $2.08 billion vs $2.06 billion, inside the guided $2.010-$2.100 billion. Figures from the earnings calendar.

The Problem/Win:Earnings cleared the top of guidance while revenue landed in the upper half of its range. Billings, the metric that drove the stock after the last two reports, was not confirmed before publication.

The Ripple:Cybersecurity peers enter Thursday on a weak footing after Palo Alto Networks’ 1.79% decline.

What It Means:Profitability is holding up. The full-year billings range, last set at $9.35-$9.55 billion, will decide whether the firewall refresh cycle is still accelerating.

What to watch:Third-quarter billings growth and any change to the full-year billings guide.

Q3 2026 earnings season enters its heaviest stretch, with 24% of the S&P 500 reported as of FactSet’s October 23 update. Thursday brings Amazon, Lilly and Mastercard alongside Q3 GDP and September PCE.

Amazon (AMZN) — AMC, Thursday, October 29 — consensus EPS $1.97 on $202.22 billion of revenue; AWS growth and capex against the hyperscaler bar Microsoft set tonight.

Eli Lilly (LLY) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — consensus EPS $5.68 on $22.58 billion; incretin volumes and the read-through from Wednesday’s retatrutide head-to-head win.

Mastercard (MA) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — consensus EPS $5.17 on $9.66 billion; cross-border growth against Visa’s 14%.

Intel (INTC) — AMC, Thursday, October 29 — consensus EPS $0.41 on $16.54 billion; foundry progress and data-center CPU demand.

Merck (MRK) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — consensus EPS $2.09 on $17.34 billion; Keytruda trajectory.

Caterpillar (CAT) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — consensus EPS $7.06 on $20.76 billion; power-generation demand from data centers and the read-across from GE Vernova’s orders.

Linde (LIN) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — consensus EPS $4.52 on $9.16 billion; industrial-gas pricing and electronics demand.

TotalEnergies (TTE) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — consensus EPS $3.82 on $55.39 billion; upstream realisations at triple-digit crude and LNG.

Sandisk (SNDK) — AMC, Thursday, October 29 — +7.66% today; consensus EPS $46.67 on $10.72 billion; NAND pricing after SK Hynix’s sold-out outlook.

Gilead Sciences (GILD) — AMC, Thursday, October 29 — consensus EPS $2.19 on $7.80 billion; HIV franchise and lenacapavir uptake.

Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — consensus EPS $1.10 on $12.73 billion; growth portfolio against patent erosion.

Altria (MO) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — consensus EPS $1.51 on $5.31 billion; cigarette volume declines and smoke-free products.

Starbucks (SBUX) — AMC, Thursday, October 29 — consensus EPS $0.72 on $9.22 billion; US comparable-store traffic under the turnaround plan.

Stryker (SYK) — AMC, Thursday, October 29 — consensus EPS $3.55 on $6.62 billion; procedure volumes after Boston Scientific’s guidance cut today.

Trane Technologies (TT) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — consensus EPS $4.73 on $6.50 billion; data-center cooling orders. Market cap now $98.67 billion, just below the $100 billion line (carried at $101.45 billion in the October 27 preview).

Exxon Mobil (XOM) — BMO, Friday, October 30 — consensus EPS $4.12 on $105.43 billion; production growth and buybacks at $100-plus crude.

AbbVie (ABBV) — BMO, Friday, October 30 — consensus EPS $3.73 on $17.32 billion; Skyrizi and Rinvoq growth.

Chevron (CVX) — BMO, Friday, October 30 — consensus EPS $4.86 on $61.33 billion; Hess integration and capital returns.

AstraZeneca (AZN) — BMO, Friday, October 30 — consensus EPS $2.59 on $16.00 billion; oncology growth and US pricing.

Apple (AAPL) — AMC, Monday, November 2 — consensus EPS $1.99 on $113.39 billion; iPhone demand and the December-quarter guide.

Palantir (PLTR) — AMC, Monday, November 2 — consensus EPS $0.41 on $2.18 billion; US commercial growth.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) — AMC, Monday, November 2 — consensus EPS $4.80 on $3.42 billion; cystic fibrosis franchise and pain launch.

Marriott International (MAR) — BMO, Monday, November 2 — consensus EPS $2.85 on $6.93 billion; RevPAR and travel demand. Market cap $102.85 billion, within 3% of the line.

AMD (AMD) — AMC, Tuesday, November 3 — consensus EPS $1.95 on $13.09 billion; data-center GPU ramp after its Meta custom-GPU deployment.

Amgen (AMGN) — AMC, Tuesday, November 3 — consensus EPS $5.79 on $10.08 billion; obesity pipeline in a week of GLP-1 competition news.

Arista Networks (ANET) — AMC, Tuesday, November 3 — consensus EPS $1.08 on $3.33 billion; AI networking demand.

Shopify (SHOP) — BMO, Tuesday, November 3 — consensus EPS $0.47 on $3.74 billion; holiday-season merchant volumes.

Pfizer (PFE) — BMO, Tuesday, November 3 — consensus EPS $0.73 on $15.86 billion; cost cuts and the obesity pipeline.

Eaton (ETN) — BMO, Tuesday, November 3 — consensus EPS $3.54 on $8.53 billion; data-center electrical orders.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) — BMO, Tuesday, November 3 — consensus EPS $25.37 on $46.60 billion; refining margins after Phillips 66’s beat.

Booking Holdings (BKNG) — AMC, Tuesday, November 3 — consensus EPS $4.49 on $9.55 billion; travel demand.

Qualcomm (QCOM) — AMC, Wednesday, November 4 — consensus EPS $2.17 on $10.14 billion; handset demand and AI PC chips.

McDonald’s (MCD) — BMO, Wednesday, November 4 — consensus EPS $3.38 on $7.29 billion; US traffic among lower-income consumers.

Uber Technologies (UBER) — BMO, Wednesday, November 4 — consensus EPS $0.86 on $14.67 billion; bookings growth and the FTC’s new personalized-pricing inquiry.

CVS Health (CVS) — BMO, Wednesday, November 4 — consensus EPS $1.66 on $104.72 billion; Caremark after Thursday’s expected PBM disclosure rule.

McKesson (MCK) — AMC, Wednesday, November 4 — consensus EPS $10.72 on $109.90 billion; drug-distribution volumes including GLP-1s.

ADRs above $100 billion reporting this window are not covered here: Shell, AB InBev and BBVA (Oct 29), BP (Oct 30), Arm and Novo Nordisk (Nov 4). Datadog ($99.97 billion, Nov 4 BMO) sits just below the line.

1. Does Thursday’s September PCE, with headline inflation expected to accelerate to 3.6% year on year, confirm a December 9 hike that futures priced at roughly 82.6% after the decision, or give the committee room to wait?

2. Does the oil premium keep building into Tuesday’s midterms on US strike reports, or unwind if the vote passes quietly and the Qatar-led push to restart US-Iran talks gains ground?

3. Can memory and chip-equipment names keep carrying the AI trade if Microsoft and Alphabet tonight, or Amazon on Thursday, signal any moderation in capex?

America’s reactors found 40% more electricity between 1990 and 2007 without adding capacity — they found it in the calendar. Every year or two a reactor must shut down to refuel, and those outages shrank from nearly three months in the early 1990s to about 32-35 days now. Each week cut from a shutdown became a week of full-power output, lifting capacity factor, the share of full-power output the plants actually deliver, from 66% to above 90%. But the trick is spent: a refuelling stop cannot shrink to nothing, and since 2013 the fleet has delivered 90.8-93.4% every year. Output can now grow only if capacity does, and capacity has hovered near 100 GW for 35 years. That is the yardstick for Constellation’s conditional Energy Department loan of up to $5bn for uprates, which raise the output of existing reactors. The lever is old and small: about 8 GW of uprates approved since 1977, which, with two new Georgia reactors, roughly held the fleet near 97 GW as older plants closed. All US generation is up 6.6% since 2007 while nuclear is down 2.7%, its share sliding to 17.7%, the lowest since 1987 — the grid has grown around a near-fixed nuclear pool, not through it. Watch whether yearly net summer capacity clears its 2012 high of 101.9 GW. The calendar has given all it can; from here, more nuclear power has to be built.

What it means: Extra nuclear power will now arrive only as fast as capacity is added, and uprates add it in small steps. For investors, companies that already own reactors control output that buyers cannot quickly add to, which should strengthen their hand when they sign long supply contracts with power-hungry customers. For the economy, growth that depends on round-the-clock power, from factories to data centres, will lean on other sources for most of its extra electricity. That changes only if yearly nuclear capacity climbs past its 2012 high of 101.9 GW.

Stocks climbed into Wednesday’s Fed decision on a narrow, AI-hardware-led advance: the S&P 500 rose 0.60% to 7,722.60 and the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.29%, while the NYSE Composite added only 0.10% and Boeing’s 10.69% post-earnings slide held the Dow to +0.03%. The driver was supplier capital flowing into the AI build-out, with AMD committing $1 billion to Meta’s equity raise and Oracle planning a multi-gigawatt Nvidia build, and investors rewarded the vendors while Meta, the issuer, fell 1.64%. Treasuries did not share the calm: the 2-year yield rose 2.5 bps to 4.741%, its third straight gain, and the dollar firmed 0.42% on the day confidence printed 91.7 against an 81 forecast, even as the VIX fell 4.79%. Seven of 11 sectors rose, led by Basic Materials (+2.19%) and Technology (+1.58%), while Energy, the year’s leader, lagged at -1.75% as WTI slipped to $100.18 on Iranian diplomacy.

Consumer Confidence Jumps to 91.7, Far Above the 81 Forecast, as Present Situation Index Climbs 8.6 Points (The Conference Board, Oct 27)

What they’re saying:The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose 7.5 points to 91.7 in October, from a revised 84.2 in September and against a consensus of 81. The Present Situation Index rose 8.6 points to 120.4 and the Expectations Index rose 6.9 points to 72.6. The labor differential (consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” minus those saying jobs are “hard to get”) improved 2.4 points to +5.3%.

The context:The 10.7-point beat is the largest upside surprise among Tuesday’s releases. Every major component improved, but the gains are concentrated in current conditions: the Expectations Index still trails the Present Situation Index by 47.8 points. Twelve-month inflation expectations eased from September but remain elevated at 5.8%. Conference Board senior economist Fergus McCormick cautioned that “despite the increase in October, consumer confidence remained on the long-term downward trend.”

What to watch:September personal income and spending on Thursday, October 29 (spending expected +0.5%, prior +0.9%), and September PCE inflation the same morning (headline expected 3.6% year over year, prior 3.4%). Together they will show whether firmer sentiment is reaching consumption, and whether the 5.8% inflation expectations are being borne out.

Durable Goods Orders Rise 1.8%, Beating 1.5% Forecast, but Orders Excluding Transportation Miss at 0.5% (Census Bureau, Oct 27)

What they’re saying:New orders for manufactured durable goods rose $6.3 billion, or 1.8%, to $345.4 billion in September, above the 1.5% consensus and after a 0.1% gain in August. Transportation equipment led, up 4.6% to $119.8 billion. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.5% against 0.6% expected (0.3% prior); excluding defense, they rose 2.2%. Nondefense capital goods orders jumped 6.2% to $107.8 billion.

The context:The headline beat rests on transportation equipment. The miss excluding transportation shows underlying factory demand running slightly below forecast, although it still picked up from August’s 0.3%. Shipments rose 0.9% to $336.8 billion, and unfilled orders rose 0.8% to a $1,623.6 billion backlog, up in 26 of the last 27 months. That backlog supports output into the fourth quarter. After Tuesday’s Census releases, the Atlanta Fed cut its third-quarter private investment nowcast to 19.4% from 19.9%.

What to watch:The ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday, November 2 (prior 54.5), then revised durable goods data with factory orders on Tuesday, November 3 (factory orders prior +0.1%).

New Home Sales Beat at 676,000 Annualized but Run 5.3% Below a Year Earlier; Median Price Falls 3.9% (Census Bureau/HUD, Oct 27)

What they’re saying:Sales of new single-family homes ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000 in September, above the 650,000 consensus. That was 0.6% below August’s revised 680,000 and 5.3% below the 714,000 rate of September 2025. The median sales price was $400,400, up 3.9% from August but down 3.9% from a year earlier; the average price of $472,800 was down 6.7% year over year.

The context:The beat came against a lowered bar: August was revised down from 684,000. The Census Bureau also states that neither the monthly nor the annual change is statistically significant (confidence intervals of ±13.8% and ±12.5%). Builders held 476,000 homes for sale, 8.4 months’ supply at the current pace, against 8.2 months a year earlier. The year-over-year fall in new home prices contrasts with the firmer resale price indexes released the same morning.

What to watch:The MBA 30-year mortgage rate on Wednesday, October 28 (prior 7.41%), and the FOMC rate decision at 2:00 PM ET the same day, which sets the path for mortgage financing costs.

Home Price Growth Picks Up: Case-Shiller Annual Gain Rises to 2.7%, Above 2.5% Forecast; FHFA Index Up 0.3% in August (S&P Cotality / FHFA, Oct 27)

What they’re saying:S&P Cotality Case-Shiller home prices rose 2.7% year over year in August, above the 2.5% consensus and up from 2.5% in July. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s House Price Index rose 0.3% month over month in August and 2.4% from August 2025.

The context:Both resale price measures firmed in August even with 30-year mortgage rates above 7%. The gains are still below inflation, however: headline PCE prices rose 3.4% year over year in August, so home values continue to fall in real terms. The two resale indexes rose even as the new-home median price fell 3.9% from a year earlier.

What to watch:September PCE inflation on Thursday, October 29 (headline expected 3.6% year over year). A print at or above that would widen the gap between home price gains and inflation.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Edges Down to 3.4% for the Third Quarter Ahead of Thursday’s Advance GDP Estimate (Atlanta Fed, Oct 27)

What they’re saying:The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimated third-quarter real GDP growth at a 3.4% annualized rate on October 27, down from 3.5% on October 20. After Tuesday’s Census Bureau releases, the nowcast for real gross private domestic investment growth fell to 19.4% from 19.9%.

The context:The model sits above the 3.2% consensus for Thursday’s advance estimate and well above the second quarter’s 2.2%. A third-quarter print above 3% would show growth running well above trend just as the Fed weighs further tightening. Polymarket puts the probability of another Fed rate hike in 2026 at 77%, unchanged from Monday, and the Fed is expected to hold its target range at 3.75%-4.00% on Wednesday.

What to watch:The third-quarter advance GDP estimate on Thursday, October 29 (expected 3.2%), with the GDP price index (expected 3.5%, prior 6.1%), and the third-quarter Employment Cost Index on Friday, October 30 (expected +0.8%, prior +0.9%).

12. Welltower (WELL): -5.77% | Normalized FFO Up 24.6% and Guidance Raised, but Net Income Misses

The Numbers:Released: AMC, Monday, October 26. Net income $0.54 per share vs $0.64 estimate; revenue $3.72B vs $3.64B estimate. Normalized FFO $1.67 per share, up 24.6% year on year; same-store NOI +15.8%, with seniors housing operating same-store NOI +21.0%. Full-year normalized FFO guidance raised to $6.47-$6.53 from $6.36-$6.44, and net income guidance to $3.31-$3.37 from $3.11-$3.19.

The Problem/Win:The operating business accelerated — seniors housing demand is driving double-digit same-store growth and a $0.10 lift to the FFO midpoint — but the shares fell 5.77% as the net income line missed; one outlet tied the drop to that miss rather than the raised outlook.

The Ripple:Real Estate was among the four declining sectors at -0.79%, with the 10-year yield edging up to 4.994%.

What It Means:A 6% drop on a raised FFO outlook says the valuation already priced the growth; the stock now needs rates to stop rising more than it needs another beat.

13. Coca-Cola (KO): -1.64% | Volume Up 5% and Guidance Raised, but Shares Slip on a 2027 Refranchising Headwind

The Numbers:Released: BMO. Comparable EPS $0.91 vs $0.88 estimate, up 11%; revenue $13.35B vs $12.92B estimate, up 7%. Organic revenue +7%; global unit case volume +5%. Full-year organic revenue growth guidance raised to at least 5%; comparable EPS growth of at least 11%; free cash flow guidance raised to at least $13.0B from about $12.4B.

The Problem/Win:Volume did the work rather than price, which is the quality investors want from a staples name. The offset was forward: the CFO flagged an 8-point revenue headwind and a 2-point EPS headwind in 2027 from refranchising Coca-Cola Beverages Africa.

The Ripple:Consumer Defensive fell 0.84%, one of four declining sectors, as money rotated into chips.

What It Means:A beat-and-raise met with selling reflects rotation and the 2027 optics more than the quarter; reported 2027 growth will look weaker than the underlying business.

14. Boeing (BA): -10.69% | Wider Core Loss and a 777 Parts Shortage Overshadow a Record $745 Billion Backlog

The Numbers:Released: BMO. Core loss $0.34 per share vs $0.25 loss estimate; GAAP loss $0.26 per share; revenue $24.19B vs $23.95B estimate. Free cash flow about $0.5B, after roughly $0.7B of Justice Department settlement payments. Total backlog a record $745B. Long-term free cash flow targets kept at about $2B for 2026, $3B for 2027, $6B for 2028 and $10B for 2029.

The Problem/Win:The core loss was wider than expected, and Boeing disclosed a parts shortage at a key 777 supplier that has disrupted factory operations and is expected to last through the first half of 2027, while its 2027 target assumes 777X certification by mid-year.

The Ripple:Boeing was the Dow’s worst performer and held the average to a 0.03% gain, while Industrials still rose 0.89% and the Dow Transports 1.70%.

What It Means:Demand is not the issue; execution is. A supplier-driven delay to 777 output puts the 2027 cash target at risk, and the stock will trade on production rates rather than orders.

What to watch:Monthly delivery data in early November for 737 and 787 rates, and any update on the 777 supplier.

15. S&P Global (SPGI): -0.38% | Beat, Raised Guidance and a Strategic Review of Capital IQ

The Numbers:Released: BMO. Adjusted EPS $4.58 vs $4.43 estimate, up 9%; revenue $3.68B vs $3.64B estimate, up 7%. Indices revenue +20%, a 14th straight record quarter; Market Intelligence +7%; Ratings +2%. Several outlets report guidance raised to 7.5%-8.5% organic constant-currency growth and adjusted EPS of $17.70-$17.95.

The Problem/Win:S&P Global opened a strategic review of Capital IQ and related data businesses, including a possible separation, while keeping RatingsDirect, RatingsXpress and Enterprise Solutions; it gave no timeline.

The Ripple:An opening gain of about 4% faded to a fractional loss as Financial slipped 0.17%.

What It Means:Indices strength carried a quarter in which ratings issuance slowed; a Capital IQ separation would leave a higher-margin ratings-and-indices company, but the market wants a timeline before paying for it.

16. Corning (GLW): -1.13% | Optical Communications Sales Jump 44% on AI Demand; Fourth-Quarter Guide Above Consensus

The Numbers:Released: BMO. Core EPS $0.91 vs $0.88 estimate, up 36%; core sales $5.08B vs $5.03B estimate, up 19%. Optical Communications sales +44% to $2.38B, with Enterprise Networks +84% and products for generative AI more than doubling. Fourth-quarter guidance: core sales $5.2B-$5.3B and core EPS $0.96-$1.00.

The Problem/Win:AI data-centre fibre is now Corning’s growth engine; display and solar profitability remain weak spots.

The Ripple:The shares slipped on a day Technology rose 1.58%, as AI-hardware buying concentrated in chips and servers.

What It Means:Corning confirms that AI demand is broadening into optical connectivity; a beat-and-raise sold on the day suggests the optical trade is already heavily owned.

17. HCA Healthcare (HCA): -3.29% | Beat on Volumes, but Lost Exchange Coverage Costs About $400 Million and 2027 Looks Flat

The Numbers:Released: BMO. Adjusted EPS $7.22 vs $6.65 estimate; revenue $19.85B vs $19.33B estimate, up 3.6%. Same-facility admissions +2.7%, equivalent admissions +3.0%, emergency room visits +5.1%; inpatient surgeries -1.4% and outpatient surgeries -3.7%. Market cap $97.42B on today’s calendar; included because it was carried forward at $100.73B on October 26.

The Problem/Win:A shift in payer mix, as patients who lost exchange coverage arrived uninsured, cut pre-tax income by about $400 million, and management said 2027 earnings should be broadly consistent with 2026.

The Ripple:Healthcare rose 0.20%, leaving HCA’s fall stock-specific.

What It Means:Hospital demand is holding, but the loss of exchange coverage is now a measurable earnings drag that a flat 2027 outlook does not yet offset.

18. Visa (V): -1.2% AH | Beat on Cross-Border Strength, but Fiscal 2027 EPS Growth Guided Lower

The Numbers:Released: AMC. Adjusted EPS $3.48 vs $3.44 estimate; GAAP EPS $3.19; net revenue $12.14B vs $12.09B estimate, up 13%. Payments volume +9% in constant dollars, from 10% last quarter; cross-border volume +14%; processed transactions 74.2B, +10%. Fiscal 2027 EPS growth guided to low double digits to low teens; quarterly dividend raised 16% to $0.78.

The Problem/Win:Travel-driven cross-border volume carried the beat, but the 2027 outlook implies slower earnings growth than this year, and the shares slipped about 1.2% after hours, per Seeking Alpha.

The Ripple:Mastercard reports Thursday before the open; a cooling in US payments volume would read across to card issuers and consumer spending.

What It Means:The consumer is still spending, but more slowly at the margin; Visa’s guidance resets 2027 growth expectations for the payments group.

What to watch:Mastercard’s results before the open on Thursday, October 29, for confirmation of the volume slowdown.

19. Seagate Technology (STX): AH: n/a | Revenue Up 61% and Next-Quarter Guidance Far Above the July Outlook

The Numbers:Released: AMC. Non-GAAP EPS $7.68 vs $7.45 estimate; revenue $4.23B vs $4.15B estimate, up 61%. Non-GAAP gross margin 57.8%; free cash flow $1.5B; about $1.2B of debt retired; quarterly dividend raised about 3% to $0.76. Fiscal second-quarter guidance: revenue $4.8B plus or minus $100M and non-GAAP EPS $9.20 plus or minus $0.20.

The Problem/Win:AI-driven demand for mass-capacity drives, served by Seagate’s HAMR roadmap, is lifting both price and margin. Reports said the shares fell after hours despite the beat; no after-hours figure was available at writing.

The Ripple:The guide sets a high bar for Sandisk, which reports Thursday after the close.

What It Means:Storage is now an AI-capex beneficiary in its own right; a sell-off on a guide this strong would signal positioning, not fundamentals.

Q3 2026 earnings season reaches its peak, with 42 companies above $100 billion reporting over the next five sessions, including Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Apple, around Wednesday’s FOMC decision and Thursday’s GDP and PCE releases. Consensus EPS is from the earnings calendar.

GE Vernova (GEV) — +4.67% today — BMO, Wednesday, October 28 — consensus EPS $4.03; gas-turbine and grid backlog, and power-equipment demand from data centres.

Amphenol (APH) — BMO, Wednesday, October 28 — consensus EPS $0.73; AI data-centre connector and interconnect orders.

UBS Group (UBS) — BMO, Wednesday, October 28 — consensus EPS $0.91; wealth-management flows and Swiss capital-rule costs.

Automatic Data Processing (ADP) — BMO, Wednesday, October 28 — consensus EPS $2.77; pays-per-control trends as a read on US hiring.

Phillips 66 (PSX) — BMO, Wednesday, October 28 — consensus EPS $11.73; refining margins and chemicals.

Microsoft (MSFT) — AMC, Wednesday, October 28 — consensus EPS $4.71 on $90.62B revenue; Azure growth, capex guidance and AI capacity constraints.

Alphabet (GOOGL) — AMC, Wednesday, October 28 — consensus EPS $3.02 on $127.94B revenue; Google Cloud growth, TPU demand after Oracle’s deal (Story 2) and capex.

KLA (KLAC) — AMC, Wednesday, October 28 — consensus EPS $1.19; wafer-fab equipment demand and China exposure.

ServiceNow (NOW) — AMC, Wednesday, October 28 — consensus EPS $1.02; subscription growth and agentic-AI monetisation.

T-Mobile US (TMUS) — AMC, Wednesday, October 28 — consensus EPS $2.89; postpaid phone net adds against Verizon’s quarter.

Fortinet (FTNT) — AMC, Wednesday, October 28 — consensus EPS $0.86; firewall refresh cycle and billings.

Eli Lilly (LLY) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — consensus EPS $5.68 on $22.58B revenue; GLP-1 volumes and pricing.

Mastercard (MA) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — consensus EPS $5.17; payments volume after Visa’s slower guide (Story 18).

Merck (MRK) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — consensus EPS $2.09; Keytruda trajectory and pipeline replacement.

Caterpillar (CAT) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — consensus EPS $7.06; power-generation demand from data centres and construction volumes.

Linde (LIN) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — consensus EPS $4.52; industrial-gas pricing and project backlog.

TotalEnergies (TTE) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — consensus EPS $3.82; realised prices with Brent above $100 and LNG exposure.

Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — consensus EPS $1.10; growth portfolio against patent losses.

Altria (MO) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — consensus EPS $1.51; cigarette volumes and smoke-free products.

Trane Technologies (TT) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — consensus EPS $4.73 (market cap $101.45B, near the $100B line); data-centre cooling orders.

Amazon (AMZN) — AMC, Thursday, October 29 — consensus EPS $1.97 on $202.24B revenue; AWS growth, capex and Amazon Leo after the Globalstar approval (Story 11).

Intel (INTC) — AMC, Thursday, October 29 — consensus EPS $0.41 on $16.54B revenue; server-CPU demand and foundry progress.

Gilead Sciences (GILD) — AMC, Thursday, October 29 — consensus EPS $2.18; HIV franchise growth.

Sandisk (SNDK) — AMC, Thursday, October 29 — consensus EPS $46.67; NAND pricing after Seagate’s guide (Story 19).

Starbucks (SBUX) — AMC, Thursday, October 29 — consensus EPS $0.72; US comparable sales and turnaround progress.

Stryker (SYK) — AMC, Thursday, October 29 — consensus EPS $3.55; procedure volumes, a check on HCA’s weaker surgery counts.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) — -2.51% today — BMO, Friday, October 30 — consensus EPS $4.10; upstream realisations with crude near $100 and buybacks.

AbbVie (ABBV) — BMO, Friday, October 30 — consensus EPS $3.73; Skyrizi and Rinvoq growth.

Chevron (CVX) — -1.63% today — BMO, Friday, October 30 — consensus EPS $4.86; production growth and capital returns.

AstraZeneca (AZN) — BMO, Friday, October 30 — consensus EPS $2.59; oncology growth including the Imdelltra combination data.

Marriott International (MAR) — BMO, Monday, November 2 — consensus EPS $2.85; RevPAR trends and travel demand.

Apple (AAPL) — AMC, Monday, November 2 — consensus EPS $1.99 on $113.39B revenue; iPhone demand and Services growth.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) — AMC, Monday, November 2 — consensus EPS $0.41; US commercial growth and government contracts.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) — AMC, Monday, November 2 — consensus EPS $4.80; cystic-fibrosis franchise and pain launch.

Shopify (SHOP) — BMO, Tuesday, November 3 — consensus EPS $0.47 on $3.74B revenue; merchant volume heading into the holiday quarter.

Pfizer (PFE) — BMO, Tuesday, November 3 — consensus EPS $0.73 on $15.86B revenue; oncology pipeline after Tuesday’s positive Elrexfio Phase 3 readout.

Eaton (ETN) — BMO, Tuesday, November 3 — consensus EPS $3.54; electrical orders from data centres and utilities.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) — BMO, Tuesday, November 3 — consensus EPS $25.37; refining cracks, read alongside Phillips 66.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) — +5.45% today — AMC, Tuesday, November 3 — consensus EPS $1.94 on $13.08B revenue; MI450 ramp and the Meta custom-GPU deployment (Story 1).

Amgen (AMGN) — AMC, Tuesday, November 3 — consensus EPS $5.79; obesity pipeline and the Imdelltra data.

Arista Networks (ANET) — +5.51% today — AMC, Tuesday, November 3 — consensus EPS $1.08; AI back-end networking orders.

Booking Holdings (BKNG) — AMC, Tuesday, November 3 — consensus EPS $4.49; room nights and travel demand alongside Visa’s cross-border data.

Excluded as ADRs: Banco Santander, Equinor and GSK (Wednesday); Shell, Anheuser-Busch InBev and BBVA (Thursday); BP (Friday). Just below the $100 billion line: Equinix ($98.61B, Wednesday) and General Dynamics ($96.02B, Friday).

1. Does Chair Warsh’s press conference on Wednesday validate the 2-year yield’s three-session climb and the 77% odds of another hike, or is the VIX at 17.51 right to look through it — and do Thursday’s GDP and PCE prints settle the argument?

2. Is chip suppliers’ capital flowing into customers’ equity raises a sign of secured AI demand or of financing strain, and will Oracle’s investor day later this week show how it funds a multi-gigawatt build with an unchanged $90-95 billion capex range?

3. With WTI at the edge of $100 and Energy priced for a peace dividend, does Iran’s outreach to Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan produce a second round of talks before an attack on core Saudi export infrastructure is confirmed?

Monday’s 2-year sale looked like a retreat yet drew perfectly ordinary demand. Investors bidding through a dealer or the New York Fed won 45.7%, against a 58.8% average earlier this year, and the easy reading is that foreign buyers walked away. The labels cannot say that. Treasury’s own definitions put foreign money on both sides — central banks bid indirectly through the New York Fed, while any investor, foreign or domestic, can bid directly for its own account. “Indirect” names a route into the auction, not a passport. The measure that would catch buyers leaving barely moved: bid-to-cover — total bids divided by the amount sold — sat inside this year’s 2.44-2.75 range, and dealers, who absorb what others leave, took their usual share. In dollars, bids kept pace as the sale grew from $26bn in 2016 to $69bn: about $70bn was bid then, about $180bn now. The route shift is not a one-day event either: before July 2025, direct bidders had taken 34% or more of a 2-year sale just once since 2008, in October 2012; they have done it seven times from July 2025 on. The foreign signal worth watching sits outside the auction: Treasuries the Fed holds in custody for foreign official accounts are down about $184bn this year, a drift in holdings rather than proof of selling, and no explanation for Monday. This week’s 5-year and 7-year sales should be judged on the amount of buying, not the label on the buyer. Buyers are coming through a different door — the warning would be an emptier room.

What it means: The 2-year yield helps set what savers earn on CDs and what borrowers pay on car loans, and this sale shows ordinary demand setting it. So any jump this week is more likely to come from Wednesday’s Fed decision than from buyers walking away. For stock investors, the feared chain of foreign money leaving, yields jumping and shares falling would show up at these sales first. For the economy, the government’s short-term borrowing should stay routine. The warning: a 2-year sale covered less than 2.44 times, with dealers left over a fifth, last seen in November 2021.

Anthropic’s public S-1 revived the AI trade, lifting the Nasdaq 100 1.09% and the S&P 500 0.70%, but the same morning showed how the build-out is now being paid for: Meta launched roughly $35 billion of common and mandatory convertible stock and SpaceX committed to a $40 billion GPU lease, turning AI capex from an earnings question into a financing question. Bonds refused to share the relief, with the 2-year yield up 3.0 bps after a $69 billion auction while the 10-year slipped 1.4 bps, a front-end repricing that keeps year-end hike odds near 75% two days before an expected Fed hold, with CPI inflation at 3.7%. Crude fell as envoys opened de-escalation talks in Tehran, and Brazil’s post-election rout stayed contained to Brazilian assets. Breadth was thin: six of 11 sectors rose, Technology (+1.47%) and Industrials (+1.09%) led, and Communication Services (-1.36%) extended a 6.75% weekly slide.

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index Rises to 13.4, but Texas Production and New Orders Slow Sharply as Input Prices Climb (Dallas Fed, Oct 26)

What they’re saying:The Dallas Fed’s Texas general business activity index rose to 13.4 in October from 9.8, and the company outlook index climbed to 16.1 from 8.7. Beneath the headline, the production index nearly halved to 15.8 from 29.5, new orders fell to 9.3 from 30.7, and capacity utilization dropped to 13.7 from 23.9.

The context:The Dallas Fed summarized the month as “Texas manufacturing activity remains solid, though pace of growth moderates,” with production still above its series average. Price pressure moved the other way: raw materials prices rose to 55.3 from 52.2 and finished goods prices to 29.9 from 27.6, while wages and benefits eased to 20.8 from 27.4. Respondents cited fuel costs, the freight market, data center spending, interest rates and the USMCA negotiations, and the future general business activity index jumped to 38.1 from 20.8.

What to watch:Tuesday’s September durable goods orders (headline expected +1.5% after 0%; ex-transportation +0.6%), Friday’s Chicago PMI (expected 55.5 from 58.8), and ISM Manufacturing on Monday, November 2 (prior 54.5).

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Turns Positive at 0.07 in September (Chicago Fed, Oct 26)

What they’re saying:The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to 0.07 in September from -0.08 in August, swinging back into positive territory. August’s reading now stands at -0.08, revised down from the -0.04 previously reported.

The context:The Chicago Fed scales the index so that zero corresponds to growth at the economy’s historical trend rate, with positive readings signalling above-trend growth. September’s print is only marginally above trend, and the Chicago Fed associates rising recession risk with a three-month average below -0.70, a level the two latest monthly readings are nowhere near. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model put third-quarter growth at 3.5% as of October 20.

What to watch:Thursday’s Q3 advance GDP (expected 3.2% annualized versus 2.2% in Q2), with GDPNow updates on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of it.

Fed Expected to Hold at 3.75%-4.00% Wednesday as Hike Odds by Year-End Stay Near 75% (CNBC, Oct 26)

What they’re saying:The Fed is expected to leave its target range at 3.75%-4.00% when its two-day meeting ends Wednesday, with CME FedWatch pricing less than a 10% chance of another quarter-point hike this week but nearly 75% odds of at least one hike by year-end, per CNBC. September’s CPI lifted annual inflation to 3.7%. “Inflation is still the No. 1 problem in the U.S. economy, and there are a lot of signs it is getting more broad-based,” said Navy Federal Credit Union chief economist Heather Long, adding that “given that it’s right before an election,” the Fed “won’t hike in October.”

The context:Bank of America’s Aditya Bhave warned in an October 23 note that “If the Fed holds, markets could question the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility.” Bonds leaned hawkish today: the 2-year yield rose 3.0 bps to 4.716% while the 10-year slipped 1.4 bps to 4.980%, flattening the 2s10s curve by about 4.4 bps to 26 bps, and Polymarket’s contract on another Fed hike in 2026 eased to 77% from 78%. CME Group’s Mark Shore noted that the four times the Fed raised rates near a midterm, in 1978, 1982, 2018 and 2022, were all tied to rising inflation.

What to watch:The decision on Wednesday, October 28 at 2:00 PM ET and Chair Warsh’s 2:30 PM ET press conference; Thursday’s Q3 advance GDP and September PCE (headline expected 3.6% year over year from 3.4%, core 0.3% month over month from 0.2%); and Friday’s Q3 Employment Cost Index (expected 0.8% quarter over quarter).

13. Verizon Communications (VZ): -3.49% | Raises 2026 Guidance for a Third Straight Quarter on 406,000 Postpaid Phone Additions, but Revenue Falls Short

The Numbers:Released: BMO, Monday, October 26. Adjusted EPS of $1.31 beat the $1.27 consensus by 2.81% (GAAP EPS $1.25, up 6.8%). Revenue of $34.31 billion, up 1.5%, missed the $34.77 billion estimate by 1.31%. Adjusted EBITDA rose 8.0% to $13.8 billion, which the company called its highest quarterly result. Postpaid phone net additions were 406,000 and broadband net additions 314,000 (155,000 fiber, 159,000 fixed wireless). Free cash flow for the first nine months was $18.0 billion, up 14.3%. Full-year 2026 guidance was raised: postpaid phone net additions of 1.1 million-1.2 million (from the upper half of 750,000-1.0 million), adjusted EPS of $5.04-$5.06 (growth of 7.0%-7.5%), and free cash flow growth approaching 12% (from 9%-10%).

The Problem/Win:Subscriber momentum is the win: CEO Dan Schulman called it “another record-breaking quarter,” and the net-add guidance lift is large. Alongside the results, Verizon announced an AI infrastructure agreement with AWS valued at more than $2.0 billion to scale distributed compute for AI workloads. The problem is the top line: revenue grew only 1.5% and missed, leaving it the clearest weak point as the shares fell 3.49% despite the guidance raise.

The Ripple:Communication Services was the weakest sector at -1.36%, though Meta’s equity offering (Story 2) did most of the damage there. Verizon’s stronger net-add guidance raises the bar for T-Mobile US, which reports after the close on Wednesday.

What It Means:Verizon is delivering subscriber volume and cash flow, but with revenue growing about 1.5% the market needs to see the net additions convert into faster service-revenue growth. The raised free cash flow outlook adds balance-sheet flexibility in the meantime.

What to watch:T-Mobile US’s postpaid account additions and churn after the close on Wednesday, October 28.

14. Welltower (WELL): AH: n/a | Normalized FFO Rises 24.6% to $1.67 and 2026 Guidance Is Raised Again, but GAAP EPS Trails the Estimate

The Numbers:Released: AMC, Monday, October 26. Normalized FFO of $1.67 per diluted share rose 24.6% year over year. Net income attributable to common stockholders was $0.54 per diluted share, against a $0.64 estimate. Total-portfolio same-store NOI grew 15.8% and Seniors Housing Operating same-store NOI 21.0%, with average occupancy up 320 basis points year over year, same-store revenue up 9.1% and RevPOR up 5.3%. Full-year 2026 normalized FFO guidance was raised to $6.47-$6.53 per diluted share from $6.36-$6.44. Shares rose 1.39% in the regular session before the release; no after-hours move was available at the time of writing.

The Problem/Win:Senior-housing operating fundamentals are the win: 21.0% same-store NOI growth in the operating portfolio, driven by occupancy and pricing. Capital deployment continues at scale, with $4.1 billion of gross investments in the third quarter and $21.0 billion closed or under contract year to date. The GAAP shortfall against the estimate is the blemish, though normalized FFO is the measure the guidance is built on.

The Ripple:Real Estate rose 0.50% on Monday. The raise is a read-through for senior-housing operators and healthcare REIT peers as the 10-year yield holds just below 5%.

What It Means:Welltower is growing through operating gains in senior housing and heavy acquisition volume, and a third guidance raise this year shows that growth holding with the 10-year yield near 5%.

What to watch:Tuesday’s 9:00 AM ET conference call for the acquisition pipeline and the occupancy outlook into 2027.

Q3 2026 earnings season hits its peak: 41 companies above $100 billion report over the next five sessions, including Microsoft and Alphabet on the afternoon of the Fed’s October 28 decision, Amazon on October 29, ExxonMobil and Chevron on October 30, and Apple on November 2.

Visa (V) — AMC, Tuesday, October 27 — Consensus EPS $3.44. Key focus: cross-border volume growth, which ran at 13% in the fiscal third quarter, and fiscal 2027 net revenue guidance, after American Express’s 8% billed-business growth.

Coca-Cola (KO) — BMO, Tuesday, October 27 — Consensus EPS $0.88. Key focus: organic revenue growth and price/mix against full-year guidance of about 5% organic growth.

Boeing (BA) — BMO, Tuesday, October 27 — Consensus EPS -$0.25. Key focus: a first 737-10 delivery date after the FAA certification, 737 production rates and cash burn.

Seagate Technology (STX) — AMC, Tuesday, October 27 — Consensus EPS $7.45. Key focus: nearline supply allocated into 2028 and the HAMR ramp, after Western Digital’s beat and $5.1 billion guide last week.

S&P Global (SPGI) — BMO, Tuesday, October 27 — Consensus EPS $4.43. Key focus: ratings revenue as debt issuance holds up, in its first quarter excluding the spun-off Mobility business.

Corning (GLW) — BMO, Tuesday, October 27 — Consensus EPS $0.88. Key focus: optical communications growth from AI data centers and progress toward its Springboard sales targets.

HCA Healthcare (HCA) — BMO, Tuesday, October 27 — Consensus EPS $6.65; market cap $100.7 billion, just above the threshold. Key focus: same-facility admissions, which rose 2.5% in the second quarter, the 2026 net income outlook of $6.3 billion-$6.7 billion, cut in July, and any comment on the proposed ACA subsidy-verification rule.

Microsoft (MSFT) — AMC, Wednesday, October 28 — Consensus EPS $4.71. Key focus: Azure growth against guidance of about 45% at constant currency, and fiscal first-quarter capex of about $50 billion, after Meta turned to equity markets to fund its AI build-out (Story 2).

Alphabet (GOOGL) — AMC, Wednesday, October 28 — Consensus EPS $3.03. Key focus: Google Cloud growth after 82% in the second quarter, 2026 capex guidance of $195 billion-$205 billion, and the OpenAI distribution deal.

GE Vernova (GEV) — BMO, Wednesday, October 28 — Consensus EPS $4.01; +4.92% today. Key focus: gas-turbine orders and slot reservations against a target of at least 125 GW by year-end, the backlog, $176 billion in the second quarter, and any comment on the wind-turbine Section 232 proclamation.

KLA (KLAC) — AMC, Wednesday, October 28 — Consensus EPS $1.19. Key focus: results against guidance of $4.0 billion in revenue, and wafer-fab equipment demand after Lam Research’s rebound today.

Amphenol (APH) — BMO, Wednesday, October 28 — Consensus EPS $0.73. Key focus: IT datacom sales driven by AI data centers and record orders, and the CommScope integration.

ServiceNow (NOW) — AMC, Wednesday, October 28 — Consensus EPS $1.02. Key focus: subscription revenue against guidance of about 20.5% growth, and AI monetisation through Now Assist.

T-Mobile US (TMUS) — AMC, Wednesday, October 28 — Consensus EPS $2.89. Key focus: postpaid account additions, now its headline metric, after Verizon added 406,000 postpaid phones and raised its full-year target (Story 13), and its response to SpaceX’s push into US wireless service.

UBS Group (UBS) — BMO, Wednesday, October 28 — Consensus EPS $0.91 (no ADR label; NYSE-listed shares). Key focus: the pace of its $3 billion buyback under proposed Swiss capital reforms, and wealth-management net new assets.

Fortinet (FTNT) — AMC, Wednesday, October 28 — Consensus EPS $0.86. Key focus: billings against guidance of $2.25 billion-$2.35 billion and the firewall refresh cycle, after cybersecurity’s rebound last week.

Automatic Data Processing (ADP) — BMO, Wednesday, October 28 — Consensus EPS $2.77. Key focus: US pays per control, which grew just 1% last quarter, as a read on payroll growth, and interest income on client funds.

Phillips 66 (PSX) — BMO, Wednesday, October 28 — Consensus EPS $11.73. Key focus: refining margins and utilization, including the supply disruption at Lake Charles that drew an emergency SPR exchange last week.

Amazon (AMZN) — AMC, Thursday, October 29 — Consensus EPS $1.97. Key focus: AWS growth after 36.8% in the second quarter, its fastest in 18 quarters, and 2026 capex of about $220 billion; Q3 guidance was $197 billion-$202 billion in net sales.

Eli Lilly (LLY) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — Consensus EPS $5.68. Key focus: Mounjaro and Zepbound volumes against 2026 revenue guidance of $85 billion-$87 billion, raised in July.

Mastercard (MA) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — Consensus EPS $5.17; -1.62% today. Key focus: net revenue growth after 12% underlying growth in the second quarter, with full-year guidance held, and cross-border volumes.

Intel (INTC) — AMC, Thursday, October 29 — Consensus EPS $0.40; +4.04% today. Key focus: revenue against guidance of $15.8 billion-$16.8 billion and server-CPU supply, after New Street’s upgrade on an agentic-AI CPU shortage (Story 7).

Merck (MRK) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — Consensus EPS $2.09; -3.21% today. Key focus: Keytruda sales and the commercial outlook for intismeran after the INTerpath-001 melanoma data presented at ESMO.

Caterpillar (CAT) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — Consensus EPS $7.04. Key focus: power-generation sales to data centers, which grew 72% in the second quarter, a record $72.1 billion backlog, and 2026 sales growth guidance of mid to high teens.

Linde (LIN) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — Consensus EPS $4.52. Key focus: industrial gas volumes and pricing as a read on global manufacturing, and energy cost pass-through with European gas at its highest close since at least April 15.

TotalEnergies (TTE) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — Consensus EPS $3.82 (no ADR label). Key focus: refining and LNG earnings with Brent at $110.46 on the January contract and Gulf supply disrupted.

Gilead Sciences (GILD) — AMC, Thursday, October 29 — Consensus EPS $2.18. Key focus: HIV franchise growth and how guidance absorbs the $0.79-$0.83 fourth-quarter EPS charge from the PepStar acquisition announced on October 22.

Sandisk (SNDK) — AMC, Thursday, October 29 — Consensus EPS $46.61. Key focus: results against its guidance of $44-$46 in EPS and $10.3 billion-$10.8 billion in revenue, and NAND pricing.

Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — Consensus EPS $1.10. Key focus: Eliquis sales, which rose 22% to $4.48 billion in the second quarter, against non-GAAP EPS guidance of $6.75-$7.00, and the zola-cel restart timeline after last Friday’s disclosure of a patient death.

Altria (MO) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — Consensus EPS $1.51. Key focus: smokeable volumes and pricing against adjusted EPS guidance of $5.61-$5.72, narrowed in July.

Stryker (SYK) — AMC, Thursday, October 29 — Consensus EPS $3.55. Key focus: organic growth against 2026 guidance of 8.3%-9.3%, which analysts said requires a significant second-half step-up.

Starbucks (SBUX) — AMC, Thursday, October 29 — Consensus EPS $0.72. Key focus: US comparable sales against guidance of 6.5% or greater for the quarter, after 7.9% in the third quarter.

Trane Technologies (TT) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — Consensus EPS $4.73; market cap $100.1 billion, newly above the threshold. Key focus: data-center demand behind record applied bookings, against third-quarter guidance of about 10% organic revenue growth and adjusted EPS of about $4.70, and full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $15.20-$15.30.

ExxonMobil (XOM) — BMO, Friday, October 30 — Consensus EPS $4.10. Key focus: the roughly $4.5 billion refining-margin boost to Energy Products that the company pre-flagged against a $1.3 billion hit from lower liquids prices, and $2.5 billion of negative timing effects.

AbbVie (ABBV) — BMO, Friday, October 30 — Consensus EPS $3.73. Key focus: Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which AbbVie expects to exceed $31 billion in combined 2026 sales, after the FDA approved a subcutaneous Skyrizi induction regimen in Crohn’s disease on October 23, per the company.

Chevron (CVX) — BMO, Friday, October 30 — Consensus EPS $4.86. Key focus: refining margins, which UBS said lifted its third-quarter EPS estimate to $4.93, and cash flow with crude above $100.

AstraZeneca (AZN) — BMO, Friday, October 30 — Consensus EPS $2.59 (no ADR label; NYSE-listed ordinary shares). Key focus: whether it reaffirms 2026 guidance of mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth and low double-digit core EPS growth, after ESMO data for Imfinzi with Amgen’s Imdelltra and for Tagrisso with savolitinib (Story 11).

Apple (AAPL) — AMC, Monday, November 2 — Consensus EPS $1.99. Key focus: John Ternus’s first call as CEO, revenue against guidance of 9%-11% growth with iPhone up in the mid-teens, gross margin guided to 47%-48%, and the first nine days of iPhone 18 Pro sales.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) — AMC, Monday, November 2 — Consensus EPS $0.41. Key focus: revenue against third-quarter guidance of $2.160 billion-$2.164 billion, and US commercial growth against a full-year outlook of more than $3.424 billion, at least 134% growth.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) — AMC, Monday, November 2 — Consensus EPS $4.80. Key focus: the cystic fibrosis franchise and Alyftrek uptake, Casgevy infusions and the Journavx launch ramp, and the November 30 FDA decision date for povetacicept in IgA nephropathy.

Marriott International (MAR) — BMO, Monday, November 2 — Consensus EPS $2.85; market cap $102.9 billion, just above the threshold. Key focus: results against third-quarter adjusted EPS guidance of $2.74-$2.82, and international RevPAR as Middle East travel demand weakens.

Excluded as ADRs: SK Hynix, HSBC and Novartis (October 27); Banco Santander, Equinor and GSK (October 28); Shell, Anheuser-Busch InBev and BBVA (October 29); BP (October 30). Just below the $100 billion threshold: Waste Management at $96.3 billion (October 27), Equinix at $95.5 billion (October 28) and General Dynamics at $96.6 billion (October 30). Berkshire Hathaway has not announced its third-quarter release date; last year it reported on a Saturday, November 1. The Fed decides on October 28, followed by the Q3 GDP advance estimate and September PCE on October 29.

1. Will Chair Warsh’s press conference on Wednesday validate the nearly 75% odds of a hike by year-end, and does the 2-year yield hold above 4.7% after the decision?

2. After Meta’s $35 billion equity raise, will Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon capex guidance this week point to more AI spending funded by stock and leases rather than cash flow?

3. Do the Tehran talks produce a follow-up round, or does a confirmed strike on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline reverse crude’s decline?

Europe’s gas costs about a third of its 2022 peak, yet the gap with America is wider. In September Europe averaged $25.49 per million BTU, against $69.98 in August 2022; divided by America’s price, that came to 8.6, above that August’s 7.9. The extreme is coming from the bottom of the fraction. In 2022 the Henry Hub benchmark, America’s reference price, climbed alongside Europe’s to $8.81. This time its futures are -8% since the Iran war began on 28 February, while Europe’s are +179%. The reason is arithmetic. In its October outlook, the Energy Information Administration expects US output to rise by 3.9 billion cubic feet a day in 2027 while exports of liquefied gas — the only way American gas reaches Europe — rise by just 1.0 billion. Exports take about a sixth of what America produces; the rest stays home and competes for American buyers, which is why the agency sees Henry Hub averaging $3.16 next year. The war lifted Europe’s side of the fraction; America’s growing supply keeps the other side pinned near $3 — short of a hard winter at home, with US storage only 1% above normal. That pairing is new: the only two other months since 1997 at 8 or more, December 2021 and March 2022, came in the run-up to and opening of Europe’s Russian gas crisis. An 8x ratio used to take a European emergency — now it takes little more than cheap American gas.

What it means: Europe’s gas shock should stay out of American winter bills. Cheap wholesale gas is not cheap gas at home, though: utility gas prices are still up 5% on a year, faster than inflation. US chemical and fertiliser makers, which use gas as fuel and raw material, keep paying a fraction of what European rivals pay. That edge supports their margins while it lasts. For the economy, cheap fuel is a buffer against an energy war abroad. The test is a hard American winter: two straight months above $5 at Henry Hub, last seen in 2022.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.47% to 7,623.68 for a second straight weekly loss while the Russell 2000 gained 2.00%, as a Gulf escalation that carried Brent to $116.62 collided with a renewed AI-financing scare that cost the Nasdaq 100 2.90% on Thursday alone. Leadership broadened rather than broke, and Treasuries, not gold, took the haven bid, pulling the 10-year yield below 5%. The market heads into Wednesday’s Fed decision pricing a softer policy path even as the week’s price data ran hotter.

1. The Gulf War Moves Onshore: Houthi Strikes on Saudi Airports and Aramco Sites, Iran’s Hormuz Claims and Talk of a Long War Carry Brent 6.3% Higher to $116.62

The core facts:The escalation built every day. On Monday the Houthis claimed strikes on an Aramco site at Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield and airports in Riyadh and Abha, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said two tankers had struck mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and Saudi Arabia postponed its Future Investment Initiative conference to 2027; none of the military claims was independently confirmed. On Tuesday Brent touched $111.99 before reversing as Pakistan’s army chief, a key US-Iran mediator, met Iran’s president, while the IEA’s Fatih Birol said he saw no “credible pathway” to normalisation in 2027. On Wednesday Iran’s foreign minister said the strait would not reopen to everyone without an understanding, the State Department ordered non-emergency staff out of Saudi Arabia, and drone debris killed two near Shaybah. On Thursday a Houthi strike on King Fahd International Airport near Dammam killed two, Reuters reported Aramco told staff to evacuate its Dhahran headquarters, and Iran claimed seven tankers hit near Hormuz, which CENTCOM disputed. On Friday UN Ambassador Mike Waltz said the war could last another year and ambassador Tom Barrack said a weekend strike on Iran was possible. Brent closed at $116.62, its highest settle since April 29.

Why it matters:The risk moved from transit to source. Yanbu is the Red Sea outlet Saudi Arabia uses to bypass Hormuz, so attacks there threaten the region’s escape valve rather than a single route, and Washington’s talk of a year-long conflict pushes the expected duration of the premium out by months. The seaborne benchmark carried it: Brent’s third straight weekly gain came with a wider spread over WTI (see Energy table in Section B). What did not move is as telling as what did. MUFG said Hormuz flows are still close to pre-conflict levels, so the premium prices the risk of lost barrels rather than barrels already lost; gold fell 4.3% and the VIX ended the week lower; and the Energy sector gained only 1.5%, falling on Thursday while crude jumped. Investors are treating the war as an inflation and margin shock, which is exactly the channel that reaches Wednesday’s Fed decision.

What to watch:Any US or Israeli action against Iran over the weekend and Monday’s crude open; whether tanker traffic through Hormuz falls from near-normal levels; and ExxonMobil and Chevron results on Friday, October 30.

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2. AI-Financing Fear Returns: Lam Research’s Supply-Capped Guidance and Meta’s Higher Spending Floor Sink the Nasdaq 100 2.90% on Thursday, Erasing a Three-Day Rebound

The core facts:The week opened with relief: the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.17% on Monday as chip stocks snapped their longest losing streak since 2008, though CoreWeave, the centre of the prior week’s rout, could not hold an early gain after a Goldman Sachs upgrade. Wednesday added another 1.13% on Nvidia’s supply-chain announcements and Super Micro’s raised outlook. That evening Meta reported record revenue of $64.6 billion but narrowed its 2026 capex range to $135-$145 billion, raising the floor, and created a non-voting Class C share, while Lam Research posted record revenue with December-quarter guidance only modestly above consensus, which management said supply constraints had held back. Thursday reversed everything: the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.90%, its steepest drop since June 23, with Lam down 11.76%, Applied Materials 8.16%, AMD 8.10%, Intel 8.04%, Nvidia 4.40% and CoreWeave 10.1%. The selloff spread to AI power, with GE Vernova down 10.64% and Vistra 9.93%, while Meta fell 6.98% and Reuters reported the cost of insuring its debt against default touched a record. AP tied the move to worries that the cost of borrowing to build data centers could threaten the AI boom.

Why it matters:The AI debate has moved from whether demand exists to who pays for the build-out, and the credit market is now part of the answer: a record default-insurance price at one of the world’s most profitable companies says lenders, not just shareholders, are pricing the capex. The market also showed how little room for disappointment is left in the supply chain, punishing Lam for guidance that merely matched expectations. Yet Thursday was a rotation, not a liquidation: about two of every three S&P 500 stocks rose that day and regulated utilities rallied while merchant power producers fell, and over the week small caps gained 2% while the Nasdaq 100 lost 0.8% (see Major Indices table in Section B). Four of the week’s five worst megacaps — Lam, GE Vernova, Meta and Applied Materials — sit on this one fault line (see weekly movers table in Section B).

What to watch:Alphabet’s and Microsoft’s capex guidance after the close on Wednesday, October 28, the same afternoon as the Fed decision, then Amazon and Intel on October 29; KLA’s results on October 28 test the chip-equipment group.

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3. Treasuries Take the Haven Bid: The 10-Year Falls 17.2 bps on Thursday, Its Biggest Drop in Nearly Four Years, and Ends the Week Below 5% on a Day Crude Jumped

The core facts:Bonds started the week against the market. On Monday the 10-year rose 5.5 bps to 5.145% while stocks bounced, and Utilities, Real Estate and the big banks led eight sectors lower; the mortgage REIT ETF hit its lowest level since April 2020. On Tuesday a Reuters poll found 94 of 100 economists expect the Fed to hold on October 28 and nearly all expect a December hike. Then on Thursday the 10-year fell 17.2 bps to 4.951%, its largest one-day decline in nearly four years per Reuters, and the 2-year fell 16.0 bps. AP said investors were buying government bonds for safety as AI stocks tumbled; the rally came on the same day Brent jumped 3.7% and jobless claims beat forecasts, two inputs that would normally push yields up. Friday recovered 4.3 bps, leaving the 10-year at 4.994%, 9.6 bps lower on the week, with futures pricing December hike odds at 76%, down from 87% a week earlier.

Why it matters:A drop of this size driven by equity risk rather than data is the bond market signalling that the AI selloff could tighten financial conditions on its own, which changes the calculus for a Fed that has been weighing more tightening with the 10-year above 5% for most of October. Rate-sensitive equities caught it immediately: Home Depot rose 4.33% and Blackstone 8.38% on Thursday. The weakness is in the foundation. The move rested on positioning, not on a change in the inflation outlook, and Friday’s data pointed the other way, with flash PMI selling prices rising at their fastest pace since 2022 and household inflation expectations at their highest since May (see Section D). The curve bull-flattened over the week (see Vol & Treasuries table in Section B), a shape that leaves the front end exposed to a hawkish surprise.

What to watch:Whether the 10-year holds below 5% into Wednesday’s 2:00 PM ET decision and press conference, then the Q3 GDP advance estimate and September PCE on Thursday, October 29.

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4. SpaceX and Tesla Edge Toward a Merger: Special Committees, Hired Advisers and a Week of Whiplash in Both Stocks

The core facts:SpaceX opened the saga on Tuesday evening with third-quarter revenue up 161% to $14.58 billion, against $12.87 billion expected, as its AI segment ($7.56 billion) overtook Starlink ($5.2 billion), and Musk said special committees at SpaceX and Tesla were discussing a merger. SpaceX rose 7.79% and Tesla 3.41% on Wednesday, while AT&T fell 6.45% after its own results, with competition from Starlink’s mobile service among the concerns cited. On Thursday Reuters reported that both companies had hired advisers and were weighing structures including SpaceX buying Tesla or a new holding company, with an all-stock deal among the options; Barclays said an announcement could come before Tesla’s December annual meeting. SpaceX fell 9.14% that day while CLSA and BNP Paribas Exane upgraded Tesla, citing merger sentiment. On Friday PhillipCapital double-upgraded SpaceX to Buy, and Reuters tied a 1.40% fall in Communication Services to a report that SpaceX is exploring a US wireless carrier program.

Why it matters:A combination of two companies worth more than $3 trillion together would put a controlling shareholder on both sides of the table, a governance test for every Tesla holder and index fund, and Musk himself has called the required approval of 50% of all Tesla shares “quite a high hurdle.” The split reaction is the signal: SpaceX holders sold the prospect of absorbing a slower-growing auto business, while Tesla’s week was carried by deal optionality rather than its quarter, leaving it among the week’s top megacap gainers (see weekly movers table in Section B). The second-order effect lands on telecoms. SpaceX’s push into direct-to-phone service is now being priced into carrier valuations, and Communication Services was the worst sector of the week (see sector rotation table in Section B).

What to watch:Any statement from either special committee and the date of Tesla’s December annual meeting; Verizon’s results on Monday, October 26, and T-Mobile’s on Wednesday, October 28, for how the carriers address the satellite threat.

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5. Cybersecurity Tops the Weekly Leaderboard: The “PHP2Shell” Flaws and a Friday Rally Lift CrowdStrike 13% and Palo Alto Networks 11%

The core facts:On Wednesday Calif.io, Wiz, OpenAI and Quarkslab disclosed two vulnerabilities in the PHP runtime, CVE-2026-109618 and CVE-2026-109619, which affect PHP 5.4 and later and allow remote code execution or data exposure through crafted web traffic. Cloudflare said the flaws leaked before their official release and that it had already observed attack traffic against customers, and it warned that updating website code alone does not fix them. CrowdStrike rose 5.26% that day, also announcing an expanded AI-security collaboration with Nvidia, and Zscaler 7.84%. On Friday CrowdStrike jumped another 8.25% and Palo Alto Networks 7.22%, the session’s largest gains among US companies above $200 billion, on a day eight of 11 sectors fell; Investing.com tied that move to an Evercore ISI channel-partner survey, an explanation that could not be independently confirmed. Both stocks had fallen about 7% on the prior Friday in the AI-financing selloff.

Why it matters:A flaw in the language runtime rather than in an application puts the patching burden on every server operator at once, and a leak with live attack traffic removes the usual grace period, the kind of event that pulls security budgets forward. It also sharpened a distinction the market drew all week inside the AI trade: the companies that defend AI workloads were bought while the companies that supply AI hardware were sold. CrowdStrike and Palo Alto finished as the week’s top two megacap gainers, and both extended runs that have more than doubled their shares this year (see weekly movers table in Section B), which makes this momentum continuation rather than a relief bounce.

What to watch:Reports of mass exploitation of the PHP flaws, and Fortinet’s billings after the close on Wednesday, October 28, the first read on whether the incident shows up in demand.

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6. “Capacity Is the Constraint”: Nvidia Prepays Its Suppliers, Chinese Buyers Order More Than $35 Billion of Workstation Cards and Anthropic’s Draft Filing Shows $450 Billion of Cloud Commitments

The core facts:On Monday Bloomberg reported that Nscale is in talks to sell Anthropic about $45 billion more computing power from a West Virginia campus. On Tuesday Reuters reported that ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent have ordered more than three million of Nvidia’s export-compliant RTX PRO 5500 cards, above $35 billion at sticker price, and that Nvidia has told customers it cannot guarantee supply. The same afternoon the Wall Street Journal reported Anthropic’s draft IPO prospectus: first-half revenue of $16.3 billion, up from $1.1 billion, a net loss of $80.7 billion, about $72 billion of it non-cash, and roughly $450 billion of noncancelable cloud commitments, including $111 billion with Google Cloud, $110 billion with AWS and $31 billion with Microsoft; the draft says it sought more capacity than the hyperscalers would supply. On Wednesday Nvidia announced capacity agreements with six supply-chain partners at GTC Berlin, including a $1.1 billion advance to King Yuan Electronics, and Jensen Huang said “Capacity is the constraint.” On Thursday CNBC reported OpenAI is nearing a raise of up to $30 billion at a $1.25 trillion pre-money valuation, below earlier reports of more than $1.4 trillion.

Why it matters:Every disclosure this week said the same thing about demand: it outruns supply. That is the bull case in its strongest form, and it explains Lam Research’s capped guidance (Story #2), which was a statement about tools it cannot ship, not orders it cannot win. The same documents expose the financing chain the market sold on Thursday. About $252 billion of contracted demand at Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft rests on one customer that lost about $8.7 billion in six months excluding financing charges, depends on two clients for a fifth of its revenue and needs public equity to keep building, while the largest private AI buyer is now raising at a lower valuation than it sought. Demand is not the question any more; the balance sheets behind it are.

What to watch:Cloud-backlog commentary from Alphabet and Microsoft on October 28 and Amazon on October 29, and the public flip of Anthropic’s registration statement, expected after the November 3 midterms.

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7. Washington Reaches for Fuel-Supply Levers Before the Midterms: A Russia Tariff Waiver, a Heating-Oil Loan, the Defense Production Act and an Emergency SPR Exchange

The core facts:An executive order released late on October 16 and reported Monday waived the Graham Act’s tariffs of up to 100% on the largest buyers of Russian crude and gas, along with a list of its sanctions provisions, with no fixed expiry; lawmakers from both parties criticised it. On Wednesday the Energy Department offered to loan up to 315,000 barrels, a third of the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve, with bids due October 27, as Moscow said the first Russian diesel cargo for the US would sail Thursday; the same day Putin agreed “in principle” to resume trilateral Ukraine talks after November 10. On Thursday a Presidential Determination under the Defense Production Act declared domestic petroleum production, refining and logistics essential to national defense and authorized federal purchases and financial support, naming no dollar amount or projects. On Friday the Energy Department authorized an emergency exchange of up to 400,000 barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to Phillips 66’s Lake Charles refinery.

Why it matters:Four measures in five days show where the administration sees the squeeze: in refined products, not crude. Distillate stocks are 9% below their five-year average, New England heating oil is up about 70% in a year, and the IEA says diesel prices have doubled since before the war. The volumes are small — the heating-oil loan and the Russian cargo together come to roughly a sixth of a single day’s US distillate demand — so the near-term price effect is marginal and the signal is political, two weeks before the November 3 midterms. The Defense Production Act order is the one with lasting reach: federal money for refining and pipeline capacity is a long-run margin risk for refiners earning peak-cycle profits, with Valero’s refining operating income up to $8.8 billion from $1.6 billion a year earlier.

What to watch:The heating-oil reserve bids on Tuesday, October 27; any first purchase commitments under the Defense Production Act; and Phillips 66’s results on Wednesday, October 28, after the Lake Charles disruption.

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Housing Breaks Under 7% Mortgages: Builder Confidence Hits a 14-Year Low, Starts Miss by 79,000 and Pending Sales Plunge 7.3% (NAHB, Census, NAR, MBA, Freddie Mac, Mon, Oct 19 – Thu, Oct 22)

What they’re saying:The NAHB builder index fell three points to 29 on Monday against a 32 consensus, its lowest since June 2012, with 43% of builders cutting prices. On Tuesday September housing starts fell 5.2% to a 1.221 million annual pace against 1.30 million expected, with single-family permits down 4.0%, and NAR’s pending home sales index fell 7.3% against an expected 0.5% dip, which Lawrence Yun blamed on “fast-rising mortgage rates.” On Wednesday MBA mortgage applications fell 5.3% even as the 30-year contract rate eased to 7.41%, with purchase applications 18% below a year earlier. On Thursday Freddie Mac’s 30-year rate slipped to 7.32% from 7.40%, still 1.13 points above a year ago.

The context:Four days, five releases, one message: housing is the channel through which 5% Treasury yields reach the real economy, and it is the only one breaking. The Atlanta Fed trimmed its third-quarter GDP estimate after Tuesday’s data precisely through private fixed investment, while the consumer component rose. Washington responded on Thursday with an executive order targeting mortgage and title insurance costs and a proposed Treasury rule barring investors with 350 or more homes from buying more from January 7, both aimed at costs around the loan rather than the rate itself. The market offered less relief than the headlines suggest: Real Estate rose under 1% on the week on lower yields (see sector rotation table in Section B), and the mortgage REIT ETF had hit its lowest level since April 2020 on Monday. Thursday’s 17.2 bp fall in the 10-year came after Freddie Mac’s survey window, so it is not yet in mortgage rates.

What to watch:September new home sales (expected 0.66 million) and Case-Shiller home prices on Tuesday, October 27, then the MBA survey on Wednesday, October 28, the first to capture the lower 10-year yield.

Price Signals Run Hot: Flash PMI Selling Prices Rise at the Fastest Pace Since August 2022 and Year-Ahead Inflation Expectations Climb to 4.7% (S&P Global, University of Michigan, Fri, Oct 23)

What they’re saying:S&P Global’s flash composite output index eased to 57.6 from 58.4, while the manufacturing PMI rose to 56.0, a 53-month high, and selling prices rose at the sharpest rate since August 2022. Chris Williamson said prices are rising “at a pace that indicates consumer price inflation is likely to rise further above the Fed’s target in the coming months,” pointing to the renewed surge in oil. The University of Michigan’s final October sentiment index came in at 48.0 against a 46.3 consensus, but current conditions fell 8.3% to 46.7, year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7% from 4.6% and long-run expectations to 3.5% from 3.4%, both the highest since May. Earlier in the week the New York Fed’s services survey (Monday) showed selling-price increases at the fastest pace since 2022, and Atlanta Fed survey firms (Wednesday) reported unit cost growth rising to 2.6%.

The context:Three surveys in one week, from businesses and households, all pointed to firmer prices, and the common source is energy: Brent gained 6.3% on the week (see Energy table in Section B), and Michigan’s year-ahead expectations stood at 3.4% in February, before the Iran conflict. The bond market did not trade it. The 10-year rose only 4.3 bps on Friday, no source tied the move to the data, and the week still ended 9.6 bps lower. That leaves a gap between firming inflation signals and easing hike expectations going into a meeting with no new Fed projections.

What to watch:September PCE on Thursday, October 29 (headline expected 0.5% m/m, core 0.3%), and the Q3 Employment Cost Index on Friday, October 30 (expected 0.8%).

A December Hike Becomes the Consensus, Then Fades in Futures: 94 of 100 Economists Expect a Hold Then a Hike, While Market Odds Ease to 76% From 87% (Reuters poll, Tue, Oct 20; Fed funds futures, Fri, Oct 23)

What they’re saying:A Reuters poll conducted October 16-20 found 94 of 100 economists expect the Fed to hold its 3.75%-4.00% range on October 28, and nearly all expect a December hike, up from fewer than half a month earlier; nearly 60% see the policy rate peaking at 4.00%-4.25%, and PCE inflation is not expected back at 2% until at least 2028. Mizuho’s Alex Pelle said, “They’ll go 25 in December, but the risk is greater they end up going 50 than they don’t go at all.” By Friday afternoon fed funds futures priced a 92% chance of a hold on Wednesday and a 76.3% chance of at least one more hike by the December 9 meeting, down from 86.5% a week earlier; Polymarket’s new “Another Fed hike in 2026” contract stood at 78%.

The context:Forecasters and traders moved in opposite directions within the same week. Economists hardened toward a December hike on the inflation outlook, while futures softened after Thursday’s haven rally in Treasuries, which had nothing to do with the data. The front end moved less than the long end, the 2-year down 2.9 bps against 9.6 bps for the 10-year (see Vol & Treasuries table in Section B), so the market has trimmed rather than abandoned its hike pricing. Morgan Stanley’s Michael Gapen framed the asymmetry: “The risks are in the direction of a Fed that ultimately needs to hike rates more than we expect.” With officials in their blackout, Wednesday’s statement and press conference are the first chance for the Fed to say which camp it is in.

What to watch:The FOMC decision at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, and the 2:30 PM press conference language on December.

Growth Holds Up Outside Housing: GDPNow Tracks 3.5%, the Leading Index Holds Flat and the Conference Board Raises Its 2026 Forecast to 2.2% (Atlanta Fed, Tue, Oct 20; Conference Board, Thu, Oct 22)

What they’re saying:The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model trimmed its third-quarter estimate to 3.5% from 3.6% on Tuesday, as modest gains in consumer spending and inventories were offset by weaker private fixed investment, net exports and government spending. On Thursday the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index was unchanged at 99.6, slightly better than the 0.1% decline expected, and the Board raised its real GDP forecast to 2.2% for 2026 and 2.0% for 2027, from 1.9% and 1.8%. The Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index slowed to 16 from 20 but stayed in expansion, and Friday’s flash PMI output readings were, in S&P Global’s words, consistent with GDP growing at a 5% annualized rate. The weak outlier was the New York Fed’s services activity index, which dropped 12 points to −20.7.

The context:Away from housing the economy is running warm, which is exactly why housing’s collapse buys no rate relief. The Conference Board described the leading index as “becoming less dependent on consumer spending and more dependent on business investment,” with falling consumer expectations the largest drag, a split that fits a week of strong business surveys and weak household ones. Physical activity agreed: Union Pacific reported carloads up 6% on Thursday. Polymarket’s recession odds rose only a point to 8% (see Polymarket table above).

What to watch:The Q3 GDP advance estimate on Thursday, October 29 (expected 3.0%, against the PMI’s 4% signal for the quarter), with the Dallas Fed index on Monday and durable goods orders on Tuesday as earlier reads.

Layoffs Stay Low as Hiring Slows: Jobless Claims Fall to 194,000 Against 200,000 Expected While ADP’s Weekly Pace Drops to 18,500 (Labor Department, Thu, Oct 22; ADP, Tue, Oct 20)

What they’re saying:Initial jobless claims fell 6,000 to 194,000 in the week ending October 17, below the 200,000 consensus, and the four-week average eased to 197,750; continuing claims rose 25,000 to 1.728 million, with the insured unemployment rate steady at 1.1%. ADP’s preliminary weekly estimate showed private employers adding an average of 18,500 jobs a week in the four weeks to October 3, down from 26,000. Friday’s flash PMI, by contrast, showed employment rising at the second-fastest pace in over four years.

The context:The labor picture is low-fire and slower-hire: layoffs are near cycle lows, with unadjusted claims well below a year ago, while ADP points to softer hiring and the PMI to stronger hiring, so the hiring signal is contested. For the Fed that leaves no labor-market slack to argue against tightening. The claims beat also proved irrelevant to markets on the day: the 10-year fell 17.2 bps on Thursday as haven buying swamped the data (see Vol & Treasuries table in Section B).

What to watch:Jobless claims on Thursday, October 29, alongside GDP and PCE, and the Q3 Employment Cost Index on Friday, October 30, for whether firm hiring is reaching wages.

1. Meta Platforms (META): −6.98% on Results Day | Record Revenue and a Beat, but a Higher Spending Floor and a Non-Voting Share Class Turn the Quarter Into a Funding Question

The Numbers:Released Wednesday, October 21, after the close. Revenue a record $64.60 billion vs. $63.34 billion expected, up from $51.2 billion a year earlier. GAAP EPS $3.83 including a legal charge tied to its teen mental-health settlement; $7.40 excluding it vs. $6.54 expected. Fourth-quarter revenue guidance midpoint above the Street, per CNBC. 2026 capex range narrowed to $135-$145 billion from $130-$145 billion. A non-voting Class C share, one for each Class A share, to begin trading in late January 2027. Shares closed Thursday at $648.85.

The Problem/Win:Win: the core business accelerated, with revenue up about 26% year over year, Instagram time spent per user at an all-time high, Threads time spent up 20%, and Zuckerberg guiding Reality Labs’ operating loss down to about $15 billion next year. Problem: the two capital decisions. Raising the bottom of the capex range removes the possibility of a spending cut, and a new non-voting share class lets Meta raise equity for the build-out without diluting Zuckerberg’s control, which investors read as a signal of issuance ahead. A 2% after-hours gain reversed in Thursday’s session.

The Ripple:Communication Services was the week’s worst sector, with Meta joined by Netflix and Alphabet among the ten largest megacap decliners. The Street did not turn on the stock: Mizuho raised its target to $950 from $750, Susquehanna to $850 from $650 and BofA to $845 from $810, with no rating changes, while TD Cowen trimmed to $850 from $865.

What It Means:Advertising is funding AI with room to spare, so the problem is not the income statement but the funding mix: with the share class in place, Meta now trades on capex discipline and the cost of capital rather than on revenue beats.

What to watch:Record and distribution dates for the Class C shares, and Meta’s first 2027 capex framework.

2. Lam Research (LRCX): −11.76% on Results Day | A Record Quarter and an Above-Consensus Guide, Capped by Supply, Fail to Clear the Bar

The Numbers:Released Wednesday, October 21, after the close. EPS $2.20 vs. $2.18 expected; revenue a record $8.22 billion vs. $8.14 billion, with a non-GAAP operating margin of 40.2%. December-quarter guidance: revenue $8.60 billion plus or minus $400 million vs. $8.53 billion expected, and adjusted EPS $2.33 plus or minus $0.15 vs. $2.31. Shares closed Thursday at $230.15.

The Problem/Win:Win: record revenue at a 40% operating margin. Problem: a beat of two cents and a guide less than 1% above consensus for a stock AP noted had surged 52.4% this year, and management said supply-chain constraints held back what could have been a stronger December quarter, which caps the near-term upside however strong orders are.

The Ripple:Applied Materials fell 8.16% on Thursday with no company-specific news, leading the chip-equipment group lower, and both names finished among the week’s five worst megacaps. Brokers cut targets but kept positive ratings: Needham to $290 from $390, Morgan Stanley to $339 from $385 and Mizuho to $360 from $365.

What It Means:Wafer-fab equipment demand is intact but priced for upside, so an in-line guide is now treated as a miss across the group; the binding variable is how fast suppliers can ship, not how much customers want.

What to watch:KLA’s results after the close on Wednesday, October 28, against its $4.0 billion revenue guidance.

3. Procter & Gamble (PG): +5.58% on Results Day | Volume-Led Organic Growth Across Every Category Gives the Defensive Rotation Its Earnings Anchor

The Numbers:Released Thursday, October 22, before the open. Core EPS $2.00 vs. $1.88 expected; diluted EPS $1.97. Net sales $23.3 billion, up 4%, vs. $22.80 billion. Organic sales +4.0% (volume +2.4 points, pricing +0.4, mix +1.1), against +2% a year earlier. Full-year organic sales and EPS guidance unchanged. Shares closed at $165.59, the session’s top megacap gainer.

The Problem/Win:Win: growth led by volume in all 10 categories and all six regions, the quality investors had doubted after a period of price-led staples growth. Problem: management warned that cost headwinds will increase over the next few quarters, and CEO Shailesh Jejurikar said he expects “geopolitical and economic challenges” to continue, with oil above $100 feeding input costs.

The Ripple:Consumer Defensive led all sectors with a 3.13% gain on Thursday, and AP credited P&G with limiting the S&P 500’s loss on the day of the AI rout. The support did not last: on Friday P&G fell 2.76% and Consumer Defensive finished last of 11 sectors, leaving it up only 0.40% on the week.

What It Means:Staples are being bought for growth, not just safety, which makes the defensive rotation more durable than a simple flight from tech; Friday’s give-back shows how much of the sector’s move is still positioning around the AI trade.

What to watch:Coca-Cola’s results before the open on Tuesday, October 27, for whether volume-led growth extends across staples.

Q3 2026 earnings season reaches its heaviest stretch, with 38 companies above $100 billion reporting over the next five sessions, including Alphabet and Microsoft on the afternoon of the Fed’s October 28 decision, Amazon on October 29, and ExxonMobil and Chevron on October 30.

Verizon Communications (VZ) — BMO, Monday, October 26 — Consensus EPS $1.27. Key focus: postpaid phone net additions and churn, after Friday’s telecom selloff on a report that SpaceX is exploring a US wireless carrier program.

Welltower (WELL) — AMC, Monday, October 26 — Consensus EPS $0.64. Key focus: senior-housing occupancy and same-store NOI growth against a full-year normalised FFO midpoint of $6.40, raised in July, with the 10-year yield just below 5%.

Visa (V) — AMC, Tuesday, October 27 — Consensus EPS $3.44. Key focus: cross-border volume growth, which ran at 13% in the fiscal third quarter, and fiscal 2027 net revenue guidance, after American Express’s 8% billed-business growth.

Coca-Cola (KO) — BMO, Tuesday, October 27 — Consensus EPS $0.88; -2.76% today. Key focus: organic revenue growth and price/mix against full-year guidance of about 5% organic growth, as Consumer Defensive finished the week’s last session as the weakest sector.

Boeing (BA) — BMO, Tuesday, October 27 — Consensus EPS -$0.25. Key focus: a first 737-10 delivery date after the FAA certification, 737 production rates and cash burn.

S&P Global (SPGI) — BMO, Tuesday, October 27 — Consensus EPS $4.43. Key focus: ratings revenue as debt issuance holds up, in its first quarter excluding the spun-off Mobility business.

Corning (GLW) — BMO, Tuesday, October 27 — Consensus EPS $0.88. Key focus: optical communications growth from AI data centers and progress toward its Springboard sales targets.

HCA Healthcare (HCA) — BMO, Tuesday, October 27 — Consensus EPS $6.65; market cap $101.6 billion, just above the threshold. Key focus: same-facility admissions, which rose 2.5% in the second quarter, the 2026 net income outlook of $6.3 billion-$6.7 billion, cut in July, and any comment on Friday’s ACA subsidy-verification proposal (Story 9).

Seagate Technology (STX) — AMC, Tuesday, October 27 — Consensus EPS $7.42. Key focus: nearline supply allocated into 2028 and the HAMR ramp, after Western Digital’s beat and $5.1 billion guide (Story 12).

Alphabet (GOOGL) — AMC, Wednesday, October 28 — Consensus EPS $3.03. Key focus: Google Cloud growth after 82% in the second quarter, 2026 capex guidance of $195 billion-$205 billion, and the OpenAI distribution deal.

Microsoft (MSFT) — AMC, Wednesday, October 28 — Consensus EPS $4.71. Key focus: Azure growth against guidance of about 45% at constant currency, and fiscal first-quarter capex of about $50 billion, as investors question AI spending.

GE Vernova (GEV) — BMO, Wednesday, October 28 — Consensus EPS $3.99. Key focus: gas-turbine orders and slot reservations against a target of at least 125 GW by year-end, the backlog, $176 billion in the second quarter, and any comment on the wind-turbine Section 232 proclamation.

KLA (KLAC) — AMC, Wednesday, October 28 — Consensus EPS $1.18. Key focus: results against guidance of $4.0 billion in revenue, and wafer-fab equipment demand after Lam Research’s 11.76% slide on Thursday.

Amphenol (APH) — BMO, Wednesday, October 28 — Consensus EPS $0.73. Key focus: IT datacom sales driven by AI data centers and record orders, and the CommScope integration.

ServiceNow (NOW) — AMC, Wednesday, October 28 — Consensus EPS $1.02. Key focus: subscription revenue against guidance of about 20.5% growth, and AI monetisation through Now Assist.

T-Mobile US (TMUS) — AMC, Wednesday, October 28 — Consensus EPS $2.89. Key focus: postpaid account additions, now its headline metric, and its response to SpaceX’s push into US wireless service.

UBS Group (UBS) — BMO, Wednesday, October 28 — Consensus EPS $0.91 (no ADR label; NYSE-listed shares). Key focus: the pace of its $3 billion buyback under proposed Swiss capital reforms, and wealth-management net new assets.

Fortinet (FTNT) — AMC, Wednesday, October 28 — Consensus EPS $0.86. Key focus: billings against guidance of $2.25 billion-$2.35 billion and the firewall refresh cycle, after CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks rallied more than 7% on Friday (Story 6).

Automatic Data Processing (ADP) — BMO, Wednesday, October 28 — Consensus EPS $2.77. Key focus: US pays per control, which grew just 1% last quarter, as a read on payroll growth, and interest income on client funds.

Phillips 66 (PSX) — BMO, Wednesday, October 28 — Consensus EPS $11.73. Key focus: refining margins and utilization, including the supply disruption at Lake Charles that drew an emergency SPR exchange on Friday (Story 1).

Amazon (AMZN) — AMC, Thursday, October 29 — Consensus EPS $1.96. Key focus: AWS growth after 36.8% in the second quarter, its fastest in 18 quarters, and 2026 capex of about $220 billion; Q3 guidance was $197 billion-$202 billion in net sales.

Eli Lilly (LLY) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — Consensus EPS $5.70; -2.54% today. Key focus: Mounjaro and Zepbound volumes against 2026 revenue guidance of $85 billion-$87 billion, raised in July.

Mastercard (MA) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — Consensus EPS $5.17. Key focus: net revenue growth after 12% underlying growth in the second quarter, with full-year guidance held, and cross-border volumes.

Intel (INTC) — AMC, Thursday, October 29 — Consensus EPS $0.40. Key focus: revenue against guidance of $15.8 billion-$16.8 billion and the rising equipment and capacity spending its CFO flagged, after this week’s chip selloff.

Merck (MRK) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — Consensus EPS $2.09. Key focus: Keytruda sales and the commercial outlook for intismeran after the INTerpath-001 melanoma data.

Caterpillar (CAT) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — Consensus EPS $7.04. Key focus: power-generation sales to data centers, which grew 72% in the second quarter, a record $72.1 billion backlog, and 2026 sales growth guidance of mid to high teens.

Linde (LIN) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — Consensus EPS $4.52. Key focus: industrial gas volumes and pricing as a read on global manufacturing, and energy cost pass-through with European gas at its highest close since at least April 15.

TotalEnergies (TTE) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — Consensus EPS $3.82 (no ADR label). Key focus: refining and LNG earnings with Brent above $116 and Gulf supply disrupted.

Gilead Sciences (GILD) — AMC, Thursday, October 29 — Consensus EPS $2.18. Key focus: HIV franchise growth and how guidance absorbs the $0.79-$0.83 fourth-quarter EPS charge from the PepStar acquisition announced on October 22.

Sandisk (SNDK) — AMC, Thursday, October 29 — Consensus EPS $46.20. Key focus: results against its guidance of $44-$46 in EPS and $10.3 billion-$10.8 billion in revenue, and NAND pricing.

Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — Consensus EPS $1.10. Key focus: Eliquis sales, which rose 22% to $4.48 billion in the second quarter, against non-GAAP EPS guidance of $6.75-$7.00, and the zola-cel restart timeline after Friday’s disclosure of a patient death (Story 8).

Altria (MO) — BMO, Thursday, October 29 — Consensus EPS $1.51. Key focus: smokeable volumes and pricing against adjusted EPS guidance of $5.61-$5.72, narrowed in July.

Stryker (SYK) — AMC, Thursday, October 29 — Consensus EPS $3.55. Key focus: organic growth against 2026 guidance of 8.3%-9.3%, which analysts said requires a significant second-half step-up.

Starbucks (SBUX) — AMC, Thursday, October 29 — Consensus EPS $0.72. Key focus: US comparable sales against guidance of 6.5% or greater for the quarter, after 7.9% in the third quarter.

ExxonMobil (XOM) — BMO, Friday, October 30 — Consensus EPS $4.10; +2.79% today. Key focus: the roughly $4.5 billion refining-margin boost to Energy Products that the company pre-flagged against a $1.3 billion hit from lower liquids prices, and $2.5 billion of negative timing effects.

AbbVie (ABBV) — BMO, Friday, October 30 — Consensus EPS $3.74. Key focus: Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which AbbVie expects to exceed $31 billion in combined 2026 sales, after the FDA approved a subcutaneous Skyrizi induction regimen in Crohn’s disease on Friday, per the company.

Chevron (CVX) — BMO, Friday, October 30 — Consensus EPS $4.86; +2.88% today. Key focus: refining margins, which UBS said lifted its third-quarter EPS estimate to $4.93, and cash flow with crude above $100.

AstraZeneca (AZN) — BMO, Friday, October 30 — Consensus EPS $2.59 (no ADR label; NYSE-listed ordinary shares). Key focus: whether it reaffirms 2026 guidance of mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth and low double-digit core EPS growth, days after the ESMO oncology congress.

Excluded as ADRs: SK Hynix, HSBC and Novartis (October 27); Equinor and GSK (October 28); Shell, Anheuser-Busch InBev and BBVA (October 29); BP (October 30). Just below the $100 billion threshold: Waste Management at $95.7 billion (October 27), Trane Technologies at $97.9 billion (October 29) and General Dynamics at $94.5 billion (October 30). The Fed’s decision on October 28 lands in the middle of the season’s peak, followed by the Q3 GDP advance estimate and September PCE on October 29.

1. Will Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon calm the AI-financing scare or deepen it? Meta’s higher spending floor triggered Thursday’s rout in chips and AI power; when Alphabet and Microsoft report after Wednesday’s close and Amazon on Thursday, investors need capex growth matched by cloud backlog, not just bigger budgets.

2. Can the Fed hold on Wednesday without reviving the December hike the bond market just priced down? Futures cut those odds to 76% while survey price gauges and household inflation expectations firmed; Thursday’s core PCE, expected at 0.3%, is the first hard data to settle the argument.

3. Does Brent’s premium survive a weekend of strike threats, and does it reach earnings? A third straight weekly gain left Brent at $116.62 with Washington talking about a long war; ExxonMobil and Chevron report on Friday, October 30, the first test of how much of the price is reaching producers’ profits.

4. Will the 10-year’s break below 5% reach housing in time? Every housing release this week weakened under mortgage rates above 7%; Tuesday’s new home sales and Wednesday’s MBA survey, the first to capture Thursday’s bond rally, show whether relief arrives before the Fed speaks.

WHY THIS CHARTFriday’s chart won because it is the one candidate that ties the week’s dominant story to the credit market: Thursday’s AI rout began with Meta’s spending plans and ended with a record price on insuring its debt, and this chart shows the balance-sheet shift that explains why lenders, not just shareholders, now have a vote on the build-out. The other four — mortgage spreads, Chinese import prices, the 2-year yield’s term premium and global factory surveys — each map to the week’s secondary rates-and-growth thread rather than to the AI-financing question that moved the Nasdaq 100.

ORIGINAL CHART ANALYSIS — FROM FRIDAY’S MIBFor two years Meta handed its spare cash back to shareholders; now it owes bondholders more than it holds in cash and investments. At end-2024 its cash and investments exceeded its bonds by $49bn; by September they fell $1.2bn short, the first time as a public company Meta has crossed that line — before counting a single lease. Nothing forced it. In the 2022 advertising slump, spending reached 97% of cash flow because both moved against Meta: spending rose while cash from the business fell by almost a third. This time that cash rose 9% on the year while spending on buildings and equipment rose 80%, to $33.9bn on the chart’s measure. A squeeze ends when advertisers come back; a decision ends only when management changes its mind. Meanwhile buybacks stopped — $62.3bn in the eight quarters to Q3 2025, none in the four since — and $54.8bn of new bonds covered what Meta’s own cash did not; the interest bill has roughly quadrupled in a year. Its own guidance says the climb continues: fourth-quarter spending of $49-59bn on Meta’s broader measure, against a $34.9bn record. Reuters reported on 22 October that the cost of insuring Meta’s debt against default had touched an all-time high, as investors grappled with concerns about its AI spending. Lenders now have a say over whatever the business’s own cash does not cover. The company that used to buy back its own shares is now selling its own IOUs. What it means: Meta is no longer buying its own shares, so its stock price will rest more heavily on whether the AI spending pays off. Many households own Meta through index funds and retirement plans, so that bet now sits inside ordinary savings. For the economy, the data-centre build-out continues, but more of it now rests on borrowed money. That leaves it more exposed to the credit market than it was a year ago. Watch the fourth quarter: a return to buybacks, or cash and investments climbing back above bonds, would say the shift is reversing.

Blue chips absorbed the cost of a widening Gulf conflict: the Dow fell 1.23% and the S&P 500 lost 0.52% as Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia lifted Brent 3.05% to $116.62, while UN Ambassador Waltz’s warning that the Iran war could last another year argued for a durable oil premium rather than a spike. The shock is travelling through inflation rather than fear — the VIX rose just 2.21% to 19.45 and gold fell 1.25%, while the 10-year yield rose 4.3 bps to 4.994% on a day the flash PMI showed selling prices rising at the sharpest rate since August 2022. That leaves Wednesday’s FOMC meeting facing firmer price signals even as futures cut the odds of another hike by December to 76% from 87%. Breadth was poor, with eight of 11 sectors lower and Consumer Defensive (-1.75%) last; only Energy, Technology and Real Estate rose, a rotation into oil and a chip-and-cybersecurity rebound rather than a broad retreat.