Tag Archives | warning

COVID19 Recession Warning

Businesses are going to be shuttered in massive numbers as the U.S has to deal with the unavoidable nationwide lock-down that will be required to contain the highly contagious Coronavirus. From our Covid19 Dashboard we maintain for our subscribers, we can see that the number of cases is rising according to a quadratic equation that […]

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U.S Stock Market Valuations continue to warn

We have updated the RecessionALERT Valuation Index (RAVI) forecast models for the SP500 using 4Q2018 data. Stock market valuations continue to pose a “clear and present danger” to positive economic and SP500 returns outcomes, and have worsened since our last warning . One and two year SP500 forecasts continue to offer relatively accurate short-run estimates […]

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Stocks valuations pose “clear & present” danger.

Those clients who have been with us since 2010 will know our refrain from issuing unnecessary and/or sensationalist warnings about the economy and markets. In fact, in 2012, the general consensus was that the US economy was about to fall back into recession, a view we opposed to quite some ridicule from certain quarters. Whilst […]

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SP-500 Liquidity Crunch Warning

Losses on the SP-500 on Friday 11th saw all our measures of breadth-liquidity fall into contraction, warning of a highly vulnerable market subject to further liquidity tightness and raised volatility. To many of my staff that actively trade the SP-500, this is treated  as a bona fide correction warning. If you are scratching your heads […]

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