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MIB Daily: The Hedges Failed at the Moment of the Crisis, Gold -2.39% and Treasuries Sold Off as WTI Jumped 5.82% to $90.75, Debt-Financed AI Lost 5-7%, and Soft JOLTS Left Hike Odds at 66% Into Friday’s Payrolls

By RecessionALERT on September 1, 2026 in Reflections

US forces struck IRGC targets inside Iran; WTI jumped 5.82% to $90.75 and Energy was the only green sector of note. The 10-Year hit a one-year high of 4.799% and gutted software — Oracle -5.23%, CrowdStrike -6.90%. Soft JOLTS and a cooling ISM left September hike odds at 66%. Gold fell 2.39%; the safe-haven bid never came. Anthropic signed a $35 billion cloud deal with Nvidia-backed Lambda. A judge let the shale price-fixing case proceed against Exxon, EOG and Occidental.

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MIB: Oil Shock Meets Software Selloff as Meta and Microsoft Fund AI With Layoffs

By RecessionALERT on April 23, 2026 in Reflections

S&P 500 and Nasdaq reversed off intraday record highs to close -0.41% / -0.57% as ServiceNow plunged 18% on a margin cut, snapping XLK’s 16-day streak. Trump ordered the Navy to “shoot and kill” Iranian boats in Hormuz; WTI spiked +4.35% to $97 as Brent held flat — a rare $9 spread. Meta cut 8,000 jobs and Microsoft launched its first-ever buyout (MSFT -3.97%) to fund AI capex. IBM -8.25% and AXP -4.31% on beat-and-fade; UNP +8.77%, CMCSA +7.73%. Intel crushed AMC. Spirit Airlines heads to court April 30 with 90% US government ownership on the table.

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