Tim Cook | RecessionAlert

Tag Archives | Tim Cook

MIB Digest: Intel’s 1987 Moment Lifts the Tape While the Consumer Breaks

By RecessionALERT on April 25, 2026 in Reflections

Records on a stagflation tape. S&P (+0.55% WoW) and Nasdaq 100 (+2.37%) closed at fresh highs only because Intel’s Q1 blowout (Data Center +22% YoY) detonated a Friday semi rip — INTC +23.6%, AMD +13.9%, NVDA back through $5T — while the Dow (-0.44%), NYSE Composite (-1.13%), and Healthcare (-3.51%) refused to confirm. Brent +16% above $100 on the Hormuz standoff, Cleveland Fed CPI nowcast at 3.7%, and Friday’s UMich crashing to a record-low 49.8 with 1-yr inflation expectations un-anchoring to 4.7%. Polymarket cut-odds slipped 7.5 pp.

Read full story · Comments are closed

MIB: Iran Deadline, Apple CEO Transition, and Record Retail Sales Crush Rate-Cut Hopes

By RecessionALERT on April 21, 2026 in Reflections

Iran ceasefire deadline Wednesday sent Brent crude surging toward $100 (S&P 500 -0.63%). Apple dropped a bombshell — Tim Cook stepping down, John Ternus in as CEO September 1 (AAPL -2.52%). Amazon’s $25B Anthropic deal is the largest AI infrastructure bet yet (AMZN +2.2%). Retail sales surged 1.7% but record gas station receipts flattered the number, crushing rate-cut hopes. UNH beat big (+6.96%); GE Aerospace sold off despite a 25% EPS beat (GE -5.56%).

Read full story · Comments are closed

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.