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MIB Daily: The Fed Can Raise Rates but It Cannot Pump Oil, 10Y at 5.006% on a Seventh Straight Rise With WTI +4.10%, as Carlyle Likens AI Lending to Subprime and Crypto’s Rulebook Dies 46-43

By RecessionALERT on September 15, 2026 in Reflections

The Senate killed crypto market structure 46-43 — Lummis: “I think we’re done. It’s over.” Bitcoin fell 3.84% to $76,058. The 10-year posted its first 5%-handle close, a seventh straight, on the eve of a hike priced at 96%. WTI +4.10% to $105.55 with Saudi’s pipeline up to six weeks from repair; EIA weekly diesel broke $6 at $6.285. Empire State collapsed to 7.6 from 20.60. Carlyle likened AI-infrastructure lending to subprime. Thermo Fisher +4.53%; Wells Fargo cut its S&P target to 7,700.

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MIB Daily: GOOGL -7.13%, TSLA -14.52% as AI Spending Meets Its Reckoning — Brent’s Run to $100 Leaves the Fed No Room, Energy Alone Gains

By RecessionALERT on July 23, 2026 in Reflections

Alphabet and Tesla cratered — GOOGL -7.13%, TSLA -14.52% — after both guided capex well above expectations, dragging the Nasdaq 100 down 1.87%. Brent crude topped $100/bbl as Houthi strikes hit Saudi tankers, opening a second Red Sea front alongside the Hormuz standoff. Rate markets threw a tantrum — July hike odds near 47%, September at 82% — as jobless claims hit a 1969 low leave the Fed with zero cover on oil-driven inflation. Oracle slid despite nearing a $20B Meta deal.

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MIB: Oil Shock Meets Software Selloff as Meta and Microsoft Fund AI With Layoffs

By RecessionALERT on April 23, 2026 in Reflections

S&P 500 and Nasdaq reversed off intraday record highs to close -0.41% / -0.57% as ServiceNow plunged 18% on a margin cut, snapping XLK’s 16-day streak. Trump ordered the Navy to “shoot and kill” Iranian boats in Hormuz; WTI spiked +4.35% to $97 as Brent held flat — a rare $9 spread. Meta cut 8,000 jobs and Microsoft launched its first-ever buyout (MSFT -3.97%) to fund AI capex. IBM -8.25% and AXP -4.31% on beat-and-fade; UNP +8.77%, CMCSA +7.73%. Intel crushed AMC. Spirit Airlines heads to court April 30 with 90% US government ownership on the table.

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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.