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MIB Daily: The AI Trade’s Weak Spot Is the Bill, Lam Research -11.76% and GE Vernova -10.64% as Staples and Treasuries Rally, Brent Hits $112.88 and Trump Invokes the DPA for Oil, Six Days Before the FOMC

By RecessionALERT on October 22, 2026 in Reflections

An AI-hardware rout sank the Nasdaq 100 2.90% and dragged the S&P 500 down 1.21%, yet two of three S&P stocks rose. Lam Research fell 11.76% and GE Vernova lost 10.64%. Treasuries caught a haven bid, cutting the 10-year yield 17.2 bps to 4.951%. Brent jumped 3.73% to $112.88, its highest close since May 4, after Houthi strikes on Saudi targets. Trump invoked the Defense Production Act for domestic oil. Moderna sank 17.57% on leaked Phase 3 melanoma data.

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MIB Daily: The AI Trade Failed a Funding Test, Not a Demand Test, Alibaba Paying 9.67% for $10.2bn; Steel Rallied on a Tariff Priced Out; Payments Led; Yield Relief Was Plumbing; Nvidia Reports Wednesday

By RecessionALERT on August 24, 2026 in Reflections

Samsung’s record $65-80bn payout still disappointed and took the US memory complex with it: SanDisk -6.49%, Micron -5.85%, the chip index into a bear market. Trump threatened 50% tariffs on Canadian autos and parts from 2027; Detroit sold off. Alibaba raised $10.2bn for AI at an 8.4% discount and fell 9.67%. Treasury’s broadest-ever Iran sanctions somehow knocked crude down 2.4%, though diesel still runs 52% above last year. Money hid in payments; Visa hit a 52-week high. Nvidia reports Wednesday.

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MIB Weekly: The Market Outvoted Five Fed Hawks and Bought a Record on a 23K Job Loss — AI Now Pays for Capital Discipline, Not Growth, and a Beat Buys Nothing; Wednesday’s CPI Can Undo All of It

By RecessionALERT on August 8, 2026 in Reflections

The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,757.46, up 3.57% on the week, after July payrolls contracted 23,000 against an +83,000 consensus and priced a September rate hike out of the front end — over the objections of five Fed officials who spent four sessions arguing for one. Crude round-tripped 8.8% lower on the Hormuz reopening trade, leaving Energy down 3.66% with the strait still shut. Palantir surged 39.78%; AMD beat on every line and fell 7% on its capex.

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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.