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MIB Daily: WMT –7.3% converts soft data to hard guidance — Flash PMI prices hit 2022 high, IBM wins foundry, NVDA can’t hold its beat

By RecessionALERT on May 21, 2026 in Reflections

IBM surged +12% on a $1B CHIPS Act quantum foundry award, fueling a broad AI-semiconductor rally. Walmart cratered -7.27%, citing tariffs and fuel in a guidance miss that flags real consumer stress. The Philadelphia Fed collapsed 27 points to -0.4 as new orders turned negative, while Flash PMI input prices hit a post-2022 high. Richmond Fed’s Barkin questioned whether five-plus years above target still justifies the ‘look through’ doctrine. NVDA fell -1.77% despite 85% revenue growth — its fourth post-earnings decline.

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MIB: Rally on Borrowed Peace — Iran Hopes Lift S&P 2.9% but $100 Oil and a Quantum Threat Linger

By RecessionALERT on March 31, 2026 in Reflections

S&P 500 +2.91% and Nasdaq +3.43% on WSJ report Trump is willing to end Iran war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Gas hits $4/gallon — highest since 2022 — even as peace talks start. Oracle cut 30,000 jobs (18% of workforce) to fund AI data centers; $58B in new debt. Google warned quantum computers could crack Bitcoin in 9 minutes. Eli Lilly acquired Centessa for $7.8B to enter narcolepsy drugs. Nike beat Q3 estimates but fell 3% AH on weak China.

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