Producer prices jumped 1.3% in September, the hottest monthly print since March 2022, yet the 10-year yield fell 10.2 bps to 5.084%. The Dow gained 1.08% to retake 52,000 as the Russell 2000 rose 1.38%, while chips extended a rout nearing $2 trillion since last week — DELL -6.80%. CoreWeave’s credit gauge hit record default odds before Nvidia’s Huang defended it. Retail sales beat, but the control group rose just 0.1%. WTI jumped 2.63% on an 8.6M-barrel crude draw.
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MIB Daily: The Hottest PPI Since 2022 Sent the 10-Year Down 10 bps, Small Caps Rallied as Chips Neared a $2 Trillion Rout, and Diesel Keeps Inflation Hot Into Warsh’s Last Word
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MIB Daily: Oil’s Surge to $86 and 5.16% Yields Hand the Fed Its Excuse — Energy Leads as Alphabet, Tesla Defend $489B in AI Debt
Oil hit six-week highs — WTI +2.73%, Brent +3.32% — as an 11th night of US strikes on Iran, a Houthi Red Sea blockade threat, and a Caspian Pipeline attack compound at once, dragging gold to $4,140 while stocks slipped (S&P -0.14%, Nasdaq 100 -0.54%). Deutsche Bank and BofA now see 2-3 more Fed hikes after a weak 20-year auction pushed yields to 5.16%. Dell +9.32%, GE Vernova -8.69%, Palantir -6.10%. Alphabet and Tesla report after the bell.
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MIB Daily: Wall Street Punished TSM’s Beat-and-Raise (-4.6%, Nasdaq 100 -1.62%) as Yields Climb and Housing’s 15th Warning Sign Tests the Fed’s July 28-29 Call
Chipmakers cratered after TSMC’s (TSM) capex hike to $60-64B revived AI-spending fears, dragging the Nasdaq 100 down 1.62% as the S&P 500 held to -0.51%. Philly Fed manufacturing tripled estimates to a five-year high and claims hit a 10-week low, pushing yields up as Dallas Fed’s Logan pushed for “modestly higher” rates. The US struck Iran a fifth night and revoked its oil waiver, yet Brent eased on bearish inventories. Pending home sales sank 5.4% as mortgage rates hit 6.64%.
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MIB: Ceasefire Rip — Record Close, AI Chips Ignite, and a 10-Day Clock Starts Ticking
Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire triggers global risk-on rally, erasing Iran war equity losses worldwide. AMD surged +7.80% as TSMC’s 58% profit surge and 30%-plus AI chip demand guidance lit up the semiconductor sector. NFLX crushed Q1 EPS (+62%) but Q2 guidance disappointed and Reed Hastings stepped down as chairman. PLD beat by 30% as data centers now represent 40% of its development pipeline. US claims fell to 207K; industrial production missed badly at -0.5%.
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