US-Iran talks could restart Thursday — WTI crude -6.86% to $92, S&P 500 +1.18% to 6,967. March PPI +0.5% vs +1.1% feared; core +0.1% — no second-wave inflation yet. IEA: 2026 oil demand to contract for first time since COVID. Gold hit new record $4,866/oz (+2.08%) even on a risk-on day. JPMorgan record $16.5B profit but NII cut (JPM -3%); WFC -5.70% on revenue miss. Oracle surged +4.74% on history’s largest AI fuel cell deal with Bloom Energy.
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MIB: Iran Blinks — WTI Craters 7%, S&P Rallies, But Gold at $4,866 Says the Market Doesn’t Believe It
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MIB: Blockade Economics — Hormuz Chokes Oil Markets, Traps the Fed, and Markets Bet on Diplomacy
S&P 500 +1% as investors bet on Iran diplomacy despite Hormuz blockade and oil near $98. Oracle soared 12.7% on AI utilities platform launch (ORCL). Goldman Sachs beat Q1 estimates but fell 2% on FICC miss (GS). Trump threatened 50% tariffs on China over Iran arms shipment reports. Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting hit 3.56% — rate cuts now a 2027 story. Meta set to overtake Google in global digital ad revenue for first time ever.
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MIB: Precious metals rout, Qatar struck again — Hormuz Week 3 Rewrites Every Portfolio Playbook
Gold crashes -5% through $5,000 as real yields spike — silver -6%, platinum -4%. Iran strikes Qatar’s LNG; Dutch TTF gas surges +13%. Chip equipment stocks surge (LRCX +4.13%, AMD +2.91%) on Micron AI beat, but MU -3.78% sell-the-news. Jobless claims 205K beat, defying stagflation fears. S&P -0.28% but Russell 2000 +0.64% as Israel pledges Hormuz reopening. FedEx beats AMC, raises guidance.
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MIB: Stagflation Trap — Hot PPI, Hawkish Fed, and $100 Oil Push Recession Odds to 49%
Hot PPI (+0.7% MoM) and a hawkish FOMC dot plot slam markets — S&P -1.36%, Dow -768 pts. WTI crude near $100 as Strait of Hormuz enters week three; Moody’s raises US recession odds to 49%. AbbVie -5.20% as J&J wins FDA approval for competing oral psoriasis drug. Mastercard -3.57% on $1.8B stablecoin BVNK acquisition. Micron (MU) reports record Q2 revenue of $23.86B AMC (+196% YoY); markets react Thursday.
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MIB: GTC Sparks Relief Rally — Nvidia’s $1T AI Forecast, FOMC Dot Plot, USMCA Launch, and the Hormuz Oil Clock
Nvidia’s GTC keynote delivers $1T AI chip order forecast (NVDA +2.2%), snapping the S&P’s 3-week losing streak (+1.01%). Meta plans to cut 20% of staff (16K jobs) to fund $135B AI build. USMCA formal review launches — US and Mexico
begin talks with a July 1 deadline. Oil retreats ~4% from overnight highs but Hormuz stays closed. FOMC convenes tomorrow; stagflation dot plot is the week’s defining risk. Bitcoin hits 6-week high ($74.5K, +3.7%).
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MIB: January PPI Beats, China Tariffs Escalate, Iran Risk Surges, and Dell Defies the Tech Rout
Hot PPI (+0.5%) ignites stagflation fears, sending Dow -521 pts and 10Y yield below 4% for first time in 4 months. Trump announces extra 10% China tariff effective March 4. S&P 500 logs worst February since March 2025 on AI-inflation-tariff triple threat. Gold surges to $5,200+ record as US evacuates Israel embassy staff on Iran war fears. Dell (DELL +16.64%) bucks the selloff with record $9B AI server quarter.
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