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MIB: S&P 500 All-Time High on Earnings Strength as GDP Miss, Oil Blockade, and No-Cut Odds Dominate

By RecessionALERT on April 30, 2026 in Reflections

Trump’s Hormuz blockade sent Brent to $126 intraday (settling $114); US gasoline hits $4.30/gallon, threatening $190B in annualized spending losses. S&P 500 set record 7,209 — best April since 2020 — as GOOGL, CAT, and LLY each surged ~10% on earnings beats while META fell -8.65% on $145B AI capex without ROI clarity. Q1 GDP +2.0% (slight miss), PCE 3.5%, ECI +0.9% — markets price 77% odds of no Fed cuts in 2026; Warsh clears Senate Banking 13-11, confirmation due May 11.

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MIB: Arrested, Crashed, and Breached — SMCI Co-Founder Busted, Semis Collapse, and S&P Falls Below Its 200-Day

By RecessionALERT on March 20, 2026 in Reflections

Fed’s hawkish echo crushes markets: S&P -1.51%, VIX +11%, 200-DMA breached for first time in 214 sessions. Semis rout: INTC -5%, MU -4.81%, NVDA -3.28% on post-GTC sell-the-news. SMCI co-founder arrested for smuggling $2.5B in Nvidia chips to China (SMCI -28%). 10Y yields spike +10 bps to 4.384%. Iran targets Gulf energy — WTI hits $98. FedEx surges +9% after blockbuster beat-and-raise.

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MIB: Precious metals rout, Qatar struck again — Hormuz Week 3 Rewrites Every Portfolio Playbook

By RecessionALERT on March 19, 2026 in Reflections

Gold crashes -5% through $5,000 as real yields spike — silver -6%, platinum -4%. Iran strikes Qatar’s LNG; Dutch TTF gas surges +13%. Chip equipment stocks surge (LRCX +4.13%, AMD +2.91%) on Micron AI beat, but MU -3.78% sell-the-news. Jobless claims 205K beat, defying stagflation fears. S&P -0.28% but Russell 2000 +0.64% as Israel pledges Hormuz reopening. FedEx beats AMC, raises guidance.

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