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MIB: Triple Catalyst Day — Iran Ceasefire Crashes Oil, Record Bank Earnings Lift S&P Past 7,000, Trump Threatens Fed Independence

By RecessionALERT on April 15, 2026 in Reflections

Trump threatens to fire Powell by May if he doesn’t resign, rattling bond markets. Oil crashes 7.87% as Iran ceasefire extended — Trump says war ‘very close to over.’ Fed Beige Book warns gas at $4/gallon and hiring freezes spreading. IEA sees first global oil demand decline since COVID. S&P 500 hits record 7,022 — above 7,000 for the first time. Tesla rockets 8% on AI5 chip milestone (UBS upgrades from Sell). BAC, MS, BLK all post record/near-record Q1 earnings.

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MIB: Iran Blinks — WTI Craters 7%, S&P Rallies, But Gold at $4,866 Says the Market Doesn’t Believe It

By RecessionALERT on April 14, 2026 in Reflections

US-Iran talks could restart Thursday — WTI crude -6.86% to $92, S&P 500 +1.18% to 6,967. March PPI +0.5% vs +1.1% feared; core +0.1% — no second-wave inflation yet. IEA: 2026 oil demand to contract for first time since COVID. Gold hit new record $4,866/oz (+2.08%) even on a risk-on day. JPMorgan record $16.5B profit but NII cut (JPM -3%); WFC -5.70% on revenue miss. Oracle surged +4.74% on history’s largest AI fuel cell deal with Bloom Energy.

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MIB: Rebound Day — Meta-AMD Deal Calms AI Fears, Novo Nordisk Enters Price War, & All Eyes Turn to Nvidia

By RecessionALERT on February 24, 2026 in Reflections

Meta commits up to $100B to AMD GPUs (AMD +9.4%), reversing Monday’s AI selloff. S&P 500 bounced 0.77% from Monday’s “tariff disaster.” Novo Nordisk fell another 3% and announced 50% drug price cuts (dragging LLY -2.2%). PayPal surged 6.74% on Stripe acquisition reports. Bitcoin heading for worst February since 2022 crypto winter. All eyes on Nvidia earnings Wednesday.

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MIB: Sell America — Tariff Chaos & AI Disruption Send S&P Negative for 2026

By RecessionALERT on February 23, 2026 in Reflections

SCOTUS struck down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs 6-3 — hours later he imposed a new 15% global tariff under Section 122, sending the S&P 500 -1.04% to 6,837 and negative for 2026. IBM cratered 13.0%, its worst day since October 2000, and CrowdStrike fell 11.3% as Anthropic’s AI coding platform upended legacy tech and cybersecurity. Gold hit a new all-time record above $5,164 on a ‘Sell America’ rotation. Fed’s Waller called a March rate cut a ‘coin flip’ as tariff chaos scrambles the inflation outlook. J.P. Morgan raised recession odds to 35%.

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