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MIB Weekly: NFP 172K Rate-Shocked the AI Bull Thesis — 53% Hike Odds, $1.77T SpaceX Debuts June 12, and Financials Outperform Semis

By RecessionALERT on June 6, 2026 in Reflections

May NFP 172K — double consensus — pushed Fed hike odds above 50% for the first time in 2026, snapping the S&P’s nine-week winning streak on its worst day since October as Computex’s AI semiconductor euphoria reversed simultaneously. The Iran arc ran all five sessions — WTI peaking at $96 on US strikes against Qeshm Island before retreating to $90.24 — keeping PCE elevated entering Warsh’s June 16-17 inaugural FOMC, where the rate-regime inflection now enters blackout locked in.

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MIB Daily: NFP 172K Locks Hike Odds at 50%+ Into Fed Blackout — AI Giants Turn to Equity Dilution as Tech Sector Breaks

By RecessionALERT on June 5, 2026 in Reflections

May NFP 172,000 — double the 85,000 consensus — snapped the S&P’s nine-week winning streak (-2.64%) and pushed Fed hike odds above 50% for the first time in 2026; FOMC blackout begins Saturday. AI semis cratered 11–17% (MRVL -16.74%, MU -13.25%) as Computex euphoria reversed, wiping $1T+. Meta reportedly weighing tens of billions in equity dilution for AI capex; META -5.5%. SpaceX priced $75B IPO at $1.77T valuation, Nasdaq debut June 12. Jun 10 CPI is the last print before Warsh’s June 17 debut.

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