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MIB Daily: AI Is the Inflation the Fed Can’t Fight — JOLTS Beat #5 Lifts September Hike to 60%, USMCA Annual Track; Tech Most Exposed Thursday NFP

By RecessionALERT on June 30, 2026 in Reflections

JOLTS beat for a fifth straight month at 7.594M, driving September rate-hike probability to 60%+ — same session S&P 500 closed Q2 +14.9% (best since 2020) and the Dow hit an all-time high. Cleveland Fed’s Hammack: AI infrastructure demand is a structural inflation force; rate hikes may be necessary. USMCA clean extension rejected — $1.5T North American trade enters annual review limbo. House Select probed MRK, LLY (-2.48%), PFE, ABBV, BMY over PLA hospital trials. SNDK +10.89% on $3,000 Bernstein PT.

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MIB Weekly: Dow 50,000 on the Day Waller Declared Rate Cuts Dead — WMT’s Guidance Miss Confirms Tariff Squeeze Is Real; QCOM +18%, IBM +16% as AI Rotates to Auto and Quantum

By RecessionALERT on May 23, 2026 in Reflections

Iran ceasefire optimism crashed WTI 5.7% to below $100 mid-week — lifting the Dow above 50,000 for the first time — but talks stalled Friday on uranium retention, keeping Brent above $100. The same Friday, Fed Governor Waller dropped the easing bias on Warsh’s swearing-in day, with Polymarket pricing a 43% October hike. NVDA validated the AI supercycle (+85% revenue YoY) while QCOM surged +18% on the Stellantis automotive deal and IBM +16% on the CHIPS Act quantum foundry. Walmart’s guidance miss (–7.27%) and UMich’s all-time record low (44.8) confirmed the tariff-and-fuel squeeze is now in corporate income statements.

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