Hormuz stays blocked — Iran demands crypto tolls from tankers; WTI +4.5% to $98.65, briefly clearing $100 intraday. Amazon (AMZN +5.6%) CEO Jassy disclosed AWS AI revenue hit $15B+ annualized. Meta signed a $21B AI cloud deal with CoreWeave through 2032. Anthropic’s Managed Agents launch hammered enterprise AI peers — PLTR -7.3%, ORCL -4%. IMF cut US 2026 growth forecast to 1.6%. S&P 500 +0.62% to 6,824 in post-ceasefire consolidation.
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MIB: Ceasefire Without Peace — Iran’s Crypto Tolls Keep Hormuz Blocked as Amazon’s AI Billions Power a Fractured Rally
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MIB: Ceasefire Euphoria — Oil Craters 14%, S&P Surges, Then the Strait Closes Again
S&P +2.51%, Dow +1,325 pts on Trump-Iran two-week ceasefire — but the Strait of Hormuz partially halted again by day’s end as the truce frayed. WTI -14.5%; semiconductors led: INTC +11%, LRCX +10%. Travel surged: UAL +10%, CCL +11%. Energy the only loser: XOM -5%, CVX -5%. UNH +9.4% on $13B Medicare Advantage windfall. FOMC minutes revealed rate hike discussions — Friday’s March CPI is the next test.
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MIB: Oil Shock, Semiconductor Selloff, and Powell’s Dovish Pivot Reshape the Market
Iran War Day 31: Trump threatens to obliterate Iran’s energy infrastructure unless Hormuz reopened immediately (Tehran: demands “unrealistic”). WTI +5.39% to $105; gas $3.99 nationally, up $1.01 in one month. Google TurboQuant AI compression crushes semiconductors: MU -9.92%, LRCX -5.43%, Nasdaq -0.73%. Powell “looks past” oil shock at Harvard — rate hike odds collapsed from 52% to 2%. Russell 2000 -1.51% vs Dow +0.11% — small caps pricing in recession. Nike earnings tomorrow.
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MIB: $100 Oil, Five Straight Down Weeks, and a Consumer Sentiment Reading From the Abyss
WTI crude above $100 for first time since 2022; Trump’s Iran deadline extension did nothing to calm markets. Dow enters correction; S&P posts 5th straight losing week — worst streak in 4 years. Macquarie warns 40% chance of $200 oil, $7/gallon gasoline if war lasts to June. Gold surges to $4,521/oz as VIX spikes 13% to 31. AZN +2.74% on Phase 3 COPD breakthrough. UMich crashes to 53.3 — bottom 1st percentile of all-time survey history.
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MIB: GTC Sparks Relief Rally — Nvidia’s $1T AI Forecast, FOMC Dot Plot, USMCA Launch, and the Hormuz Oil Clock
Nvidia’s GTC keynote delivers $1T AI chip order forecast (NVDA +2.2%), snapping the S&P’s 3-week losing streak (+1.01%). Meta plans to cut 20% of staff (16K jobs) to fund $135B AI build. USMCA formal review launches — US and Mexico
begin talks with a July 1 deadline. Oil retreats ~4% from overnight highs but Hormuz stays closed. FOMC convenes tomorrow; stagflation dot plot is the week’s defining risk. Bitcoin hits 6-week high ($74.5K, +3.7%).
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MIB: Rebound Day — Meta-AMD Deal Calms AI Fears, Novo Nordisk Enters Price War, & All Eyes Turn to Nvidia
Meta commits up to $100B to AMD GPUs (AMD +9.4%), reversing Monday’s AI selloff. S&P 500 bounced 0.77% from Monday’s “tariff disaster.” Novo Nordisk fell another 3% and announced 50% drug price cuts (dragging LLY -2.2%). PayPal surged 6.74% on Stripe acquisition reports. Bitcoin heading for worst February since 2022 crypto winter. All eyes on Nvidia earnings Wednesday.
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