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MIB Daily: Dow 50,580 ATH While Bonds Price October Hike — Warsh’s June FOMC Test, Inflation De-Anchoring at 3.9%, QCOM’s Automotive Pivot

By RecessionALERT on May 22, 2026 in Reflections

Dow hit a new record (50,580) on US-Iran diplomatic progress; QCOM surged +11.6% on a Stellantis Snapdragon automotive chip deal. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair while Waller dropped the easing bias — markets now price a two-in-three October rate hike. UMich final May sentiment hit an all-time low of 44.8 with 5-year inflation expectations jumping to 3.9%. MRK +5.6% on Phase III lung cancer win with raised guidance; Walmart C-suite shakeup deepens with two senior departures.

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MIB: Yields Won Monday at 4.62% — $66.8B Utility AI Bet, $112 Brent; Rotate Into Energy and Financials, Exit REITs and Long-Tech

By RecessionALERT on May 19, 2026 in Reflections

NextEra acquires Dominion Energy in a $66.8B deal to lock in AI data center power demand across Northern Virginia (D +9.4%, NEE -4.6%). The 10-year held a 52-week high at 4.623%, driving a 45% probability of a December rate hike with 2026 cuts fully priced out. Trump postponed the Iran strike; Brent surged +2.68% to $112 as Hormuz supply destruction continues. Seagate’s CEO warned AI capacity is years away — MU -6%, AMAT -5.3% as SOX slides pre-NVDA May 20.

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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.