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MIB Daily: Wall Street Sold the Fear, Not the Risk — Chips Reload on AI Capex as Defensives Fund the Trade and GDP’s 6.3% Price Index Keeps the Question Open

By RecessionALERT on July 30, 2026 in Reflections

Wall Street erased Wednesday’s Fed-day rout: Nasdaq 100 +3.36%, S&P 500 +1.67%, VIX -17.33%. Microsoft surged 15.5% on 43% Azure growth; Meta sank 7.95%. Semis went vertical — Micron +18%, Lam +18%, AMAT +15%, AMD +13%. But Q2 GDP undershot at 1.5% with the price index spiking to 6.3%, and Dow Transports fell 1.74%. June core PCE cooled to 3.3%; jobless claims held at 197K. US strikes hit Iran overnight, yet crude closed lower and the dollar broke below 100.

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MIB Daily: Twin Gulf Chokepoints Push Gas Past $4 as the Fed Holds the Line — AMD (+5%) Pulls Away From Oracle’s Cost Overruns (-4%)

By RecessionALERT on July 20, 2026 in Reflections

Iran’s IRGC torched two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and declared it sealed — then Yemen’s Houthis opened a second front, blockading Saudi Arabia’s export lifeline. Gasoline just crossed $4/gallon, landing days before Fed Chair Warsh’s “no tolerance” inflation stance faces its July 28-29 test. A judge blocked Paramount Skydance’s $110B Warner Bros. Discovery deal. AMD surged 5% on a new Azure AI mega-deal; Oracle sank another 4% on data-center cost overruns. Stocks fell a third day, though chips rebounded.

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