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MIB Daily: Housing Breaks Under 5.1% Yields Yet a December Hike Is Now Consensus, Nvidia Can’t Promise Supply on $35B of China Orders, Brent’s Floor Rises and Healthcare Lifts the Dow as Chips Slide

By RecessionALERT on October 20, 2026 in Reflections

Housing cracked under 5.1% Treasury yields: September starts fell 5.2% to 1.221M against a 1.30M consensus and pending sales plunged 7.3%. A Reuters poll now has nearly all economists expecting a December Fed hike. Healthcare led a rotation out of tech, lifting the Dow 1.02% to its highest close since September 11, while Brent reversed from a $111.99 intraday high. Anthropic’s draft IPO filing showed $16.3B first-half revenue and ~$450B of cloud commitments. Salesforce agreed to buy Braze; BRZE +51.7%.

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MIB Weekly: Dow Cracked 50,000 and a $2.1T IPO Debuted in the Same Week — Long Semis, Short AI Cash-Burn; Iran Holds the Key to Warsh’s June 17 FOMC

By RecessionALERT on June 13, 2026 in Reflections

Iran’s 14-point Hormuz draft MoU sent WTI from $91.78 to $84.24 by Friday, potentially deflating the energy surge that drove May CPI to a three-year high (4.2%) and locked out Fed cuts heading into Warsh’s June 17 inaugural FOMC — now with 47% hike odds. SpaceX debuted as the largest IPO in US history ($75B raised, +19.3%), while Intel’s Google foundry win and JPMorgan’s KLAC upgrade drove the semiconductor equipment complex +20–32% on the week.

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MIB Daily: This Isn’t a Dip — MRVL -7.6%, Nasdaq -1.12%, 4.2% CPI Due Wednesday, Hormuz Shut: Defensives Over Tech Through June 17

By RecessionALERT on June 9, 2026 in Reflections

AI mega-caps remain under distribution as SpaceX’s $75B IPO ($150B+ in orders) drains liquidity — MRVL -7.6%, AAPL -3.7%, Nasdaq -1.12%. Iran-Israel ceasefire cuts WTI -3% to $88.54 — but Hormuz stays blocked and Trump vowed a US response to the Apache downing. NFIB price plans hit 34% (4-year high); Wednesday’s CPI consensus is 4.2% YoY (3-year high) — make-or-break for Warsh’s June 17 FOMC debut. GSK bids $10.6B (40% premium) for Nuvalent’s oncology pipeline; 9 of 11 sectors advanced on defensive rotation.

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