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MIB Daily: Brent Tops $102 on China’s Fuel-Export Halt and the 10-Year Hits 5.34%, Long Yields Tighten for the Fed as Banks and Junk Credit Strain, and a $2 Trillion Anthropic IPO Tests AI Leadership

By RecessionALERT on October 1, 2026 in Reflections

Brent jumped 4.3% to $102.22 as Chinese refiners suspended October fuel exports. The 10-year yield touched 5.34% intraday, its highest since 2002, then closed down 4.8 bps; UK 30-year gilts topped 6%. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson called energy “the predominant factor” in rising inflation as ISM’s prices gauge leapt to 77.9. Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage rate hit 7.28% and junk CDS widened to April levels. Anthropic eyes a November IPO at up to $2 trillion.

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MIB Daily: SOX +6% Record on Apple-Intel, Iran Unwinds Gold and Energy — Warsh Hikes, Housing Cracks, Bond Market Refuses to Celebrate

By RecessionALERT on June 18, 2026 in Reflections

Trump confirmed Apple will build chips at Intel’s foundry, sending SOX up 6% to a record and INTC +10.6% — AI hardware is now rate-cycle-agnostic as Nasdaq gained 2.48% on the day Warsh signaled a 2026 rate hike. Gold plunged 3.51% and silver 7.05% as Iran MOU execution unwound two risk premiums simultaneously. Accenture collapsed 16-18% on a guidance cut, crystallizing AI’s bifurcation: hardware thrives while IT consulting implodes. Housing starts plunged 15.4% in May; Philly Prices Paid surged to 53.2.

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