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MIB Daily: MRVL +33%, S&P 7,600 on Huang’s Computex Crown — Hammack’s Hike Signal Makes Friday’s NFP the Market’s Next Binary

By RecessionALERT on June 2, 2026 in Reflections

Nvidia’s Jensen Huang named Marvell “the next trillion-dollar company” at Computex — MRVL +33%, chip equipment up 5-7%, S&P 500 crossed 7,600 for the first time. Alphabet’s $80B equity offering to fund AI capex sent GOOGL -4%; Berkshire took a $10B stake. FTC broadened antitrust probe into Microsoft’s cloud/AI bundling (MSFT -4%). JOLTS April surged 731K above consensus as Cleveland Fed’s Hammack warned a rate hike “may soon be appropriate,” pushing 2026 hike odds to 34% with WTI above $93.

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MIB: Yields Won Monday at 4.62% — $66.8B Utility AI Bet, $112 Brent; Rotate Into Energy and Financials, Exit REITs and Long-Tech

By RecessionALERT on May 19, 2026 in Reflections

NextEra acquires Dominion Energy in a $66.8B deal to lock in AI data center power demand across Northern Virginia (D +9.4%, NEE -4.6%). The 10-year held a 52-week high at 4.623%, driving a 45% probability of a December rate hike with 2026 cuts fully priced out. Trump postponed the Iran strike; Brent surged +2.68% to $112 as Hormuz supply destruction continues. Seagate’s CEO warned AI capacity is years away — MU -6%, AMAT -5.3% as SOX slides pre-NVDA May 20.

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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.