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MIB: All-Time Low — Consumer Sentiment Collapses as CPI Stalls the Fed and Semis Soar on Tariff Relief

By RecessionALERT on April 10, 2026 in Reflections

March CPI hit 3.3% (gasoline +21.2%) but core held at 2.6% — Fed stuck. Michigan consumer sentiment crashed to an all-time low of 47.6. Semis surged on Trump tariff exemptions (AVGO +4.69%, AMD +3.55%). TSMC confirmed AI demand is booming: Q1 revenue +35% to $35.7B. Meta locked in $21B with CoreWeave through 2032 (META +3.4%). FICO plunged 14% as the Senate opened a probe into mortgage credit score pricing.

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MIB: Stagflation Trap — Iran Sends Oil Past $101 While Google’s AI Crushes Semis and Meta Faces $Billions in Verdicts

By RecessionALERT on March 26, 2026 in Reflections

Iran denies US peace talks, pushing Brent crude past $101 and extending the Hormuz chokehold. Google’s TurboQuant crushed semiconductor stocks (LRCX -9.4%, AMAT -8.3%, AMD -7.5%, MU -7%). Meta shed 8% on a landmark social media addiction verdict. Nasdaq entered correction territory (-10%). OECD raised US inflation forecast to 4.2% for 2026, highest in G7. BlackRock downgraded US equities to neutral as stagflation fears mount.

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MIB: Iran Diplomacy Lifts Stocks, ARM Disrupts Nvidia’s Supply Chain, and the Recession Clock Keeps Ticking

By RecessionALERT on March 25, 2026 in Reflections

Iran peace talks lift markets (S&P +0.54%) — Trump sends 15-point proposal; Tehran rejects, demands Hormuz control. ARM +12% on plan to sell own chips with Meta as anchor customer. SpaceX files for IPO this week — $1.75T valuation, biggest in history. Google TurboQuant 6x memory compression sends MU -3.4%. AMD and Intel +7% on CPU price hike reports. Gold +2.3% to $4,535 as stagflation hedge persists.

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MIB: Precious metals rout, Qatar struck again — Hormuz Week 3 Rewrites Every Portfolio Playbook

By RecessionALERT on March 19, 2026 in Reflections

Gold crashes -5% through $5,000 as real yields spike — silver -6%, platinum -4%. Iran strikes Qatar’s LNG; Dutch TTF gas surges +13%. Chip equipment stocks surge (LRCX +4.13%, AMD +2.91%) on Micron AI beat, but MU -3.78% sell-the-news. Jobless claims 205K beat, defying stagflation fears. S&P -0.28% but Russell 2000 +0.64% as Israel pledges Hormuz reopening. FedEx beats AMC, raises guidance.

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