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MIB Daily: Nvidia Says AI Is Short of Factories, Not Buyers, as Chipmakers Lead a Narrow Rally and Gulf Risk Reaches Saudi Oil Fields, Leaving the Fed to Weigh $110 Brent Against Cooling Housing

By RecessionALERT on October 21, 2026 in Reflections

A New Mexico judge ordered Meta to pay $25 billion plus 15% annual interest; Meta will appeal. Nvidia unveiled capacity deals with six suppliers at GTC Berlin as chipmakers lifted the Nasdaq 100 1.13% on a narrow tape where six of 11 sectors fell. Washington ordered non-emergency staff out of Saudi Arabia as Houthi attacks escalate. The EIA crude draw nearly quadrupled forecasts. Mortgage applications fell 5.3% despite lower rates. CrowdStrike jumped 5.26% as leaked PHP flaws lifted cybersecurity stocks.

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MIB Daily: Wall Street Punished TSM’s Beat-and-Raise (-4.6%, Nasdaq 100 -1.62%) as Yields Climb and Housing’s 15th Warning Sign Tests the Fed’s July 28-29 Call

By RecessionALERT on July 16, 2026 in Reflections

Chipmakers cratered after TSMC’s (TSM) capex hike to $60-64B revived AI-spending fears, dragging the Nasdaq 100 down 1.62% as the S&P 500 held to -0.51%. Philly Fed manufacturing tripled estimates to a five-year high and claims hit a 10-week low, pushing yields up as Dallas Fed’s Logan pushed for “modestly higher” rates. The US struck Iran a fifth night and revoked its oil waiver, yet Brent eased on bearish inventories. Pending home sales sank 5.4% as mortgage rates hit 6.64%.

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MIB: Ceasefire Rip — Record Close, AI Chips Ignite, and a 10-Day Clock Starts Ticking

By RecessionALERT on April 16, 2026 in Reflections

Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire triggers global risk-on rally, erasing Iran war equity losses worldwide. AMD surged +7.80% as TSMC’s 58% profit surge and 30%-plus AI chip demand guidance lit up the semiconductor sector. NFLX crushed Q1 EPS (+62%) but Q2 guidance disappointed and Reed Hastings stepped down as chairman. PLD beat by 30% as data centers now represent 40% of its development pipeline. US claims fell to 207K; industrial production missed badly at -0.5%.

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