MIB: Oil Crosses $100, Record G7 SPR Release, FOMC Blackout Begins & February CPI Due Tomorrow

TABLE OF CONTENTS

A. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
B. MARKET DATA
C. HIGH-IMPACT STORIES (5)
D. MODERATE-IMPACT STORIES (5)
E. EARNINGS WATCH (1)
F. ECONOMY WATCH (5)
G. WHAT’S NEXT

A. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -> TOP

MARKET SNAPSHOT:

Monday delivered the most extreme single-session price range of the Iran conflict: WTI crude touched $119/bbl overnight and early morning — the first time oil crossed $100 since 2022 and the highest print since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine shock — before a dramatic intraday reversal brought markets from deeply negative to positive closes. The catalyst was a dual announcement: G7 and IEA finance ministers convened an emergency meeting and authorized the largest coordinated strategic petroleum reserve release in the IEA’s 52-year history (300-400 million barrels globally), followed hours later by President Trump telling CBS News that “the war is very complete, pretty much — they have no navy, no communications, no Air Force.” The S&P 500, which had been down 1.5% and the Dow down 900 points at session lows, closed up 0.83% and +239 points respectively. WTI settled at $94.77 — still up 7.7% from Friday’s $88.00 close, but well off the $119 peak. The session’s character: defense and energy led; cruise lines and airlines were devastated; the 10-year yield rose to 4.22% as rate cut expectations were pushed back from July to September, and gold fell 1.3% as the DXY surged to 99.69 (3-month high). Sector breadth was mixed — 6 of 11 S&P sectors advanced, making this a geopolitical-sentiment story rather than a broad bull move: the gains were concentrated in defense and tech while consumer discretionary and travel names extended severe losses.

TODAY AT A GLANCE:

KEY THEMES:

B. MARKET DATA -> TOP

CLOSING PRICES – Monday, March 9, 2026:

MAJOR INDICES

VOLATILITY & TREASURIES

COMMODITIES

TOP LARGE-CAP MOVERS:

Selection criteria: US-listed companies with market cap above $25 billion that moved ±1.5% or more during the session. Movers are ranked by percentage change and capped at 5 gainers and 5 decliners. On muted trading days when fewer than 3 names meet the threshold, the largest moves are shown regardless. Moves driven by earnings, M&A, analyst actions, sector rotation, or macro catalysts are prioritized over low-volume or technical moves.

GAINERS

DECLINERS

C. HIGH-IMPACT STORIES -> TOP

1. WTI Crude Breaches $100 Intraday — Biggest Oil Supply Disruption in History as Hormuz Closes Day 10

The core facts:WTI crude oil breached $100/bbl intraday Monday for the first time since 2022, peaking at approximately $119/bbl in overnight and early morning trading before pulling back to settle at $94.77 (+7.69% from Friday’s $88.00 close). Brent crude similarly crossed $100 and peaked at $119, before settling near $106. Rapidan Energy and CNBC cited the closure as the biggest oil supply disruption in recorded history: approximately 20% of global oil supply has been disrupted for 10 consecutive days — more than double the previous record set during the 1956 Suez Crisis. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to civilian commercial traffic. National average gasoline prices rose to $3.45/gallon on March 9, up from $2.95 pre-conflict (February 27) — a 16% surge in 10 days. Jet fuel at the US Gulf Coast remains at $4.12+/gallon, the highest level in nearly four years.

Why it matters:The $100 threshold is not just psychological — it is a mathematical inflection point for the US economy. The IMF’s model projects that every 10% sustained oil price increase generates 0.4 percentage points of additional inflation and 0.15 percentage points of GDP reduction globally. From the pre-conflict $63 baseline, WTI at $95 represents a 51% increase — implying roughly 2.0 additional percentage points of inflation and 0.75 percentage points of GDP reduction at sustained levels. These estimates compound the already-weakening labor market (February NFP -92,000) and consumer confidence deterioration, meaning the oil shock is amplifying a pre-existing economic deceleration rather than hitting a resilient baseline. Even though crude pulled back from $119 to $95 on the G7+IEA announcement and Trump comments (see Story 2 and 3), the settlement price of $94.77 remains well within “stagflation territory” — high enough to accelerate CPI, reduce consumer spending, and constrain the Fed simultaneously.

What to watch:Tuesday’s WTI open (overnight futures) is the immediate test of whether Trump’s “very complete” comment has genuine market staying power. A re-breach above $97-100 Tuesday morning would signal markets are discounting Trump’s statement; a sustained move below $90 would confirm the peace premium has returned. Watch Kpler and TankerTrackers for any VLCC movement through the Strait — physical tanker transit is the definitive indicator of whether the conflict is genuinely winding down.

2. G7 + IEA Authorize Record 300-400 Million Barrel Coordinated SPR Release — Largest Emergency Oil Response in History

The core facts:G7 finance ministers and IEA leadership convened an emergency meeting Monday and authorized a coordinated release of 300-400 million barrels of oil from global Strategic Petroleum Reserves — representing the largest emergency stockpile deployment in the IEA’s 52-year history, and approximately 25-33% of the world’s 1.2 billion barrels of emergency reserves. Brent crude, which had peaked above $119/bbl, fell to approximately $106 immediately following news of the announcement. France’s Finance Minister Roland Lescure (representing Macron as G7 president) confirmed “the use of strategic reserves is an envisaged option.” G7 energy ministers are scheduled to meet Tuesday morning to discuss implementation and allocation. The Trump administration’s prior position of “no SPR release” (stated as recently as Friday March 6) was formally reversed by this coordinated multilateral action. By February 2026, the Trump administration had successfully refilled the US SPR to approximately 415 million barrels — providing significant firepower for the US contribution to the coordinated release.

Why it matters:This is UNCERTAIN because the SPR tool addresses the financial/market side of the oil shock, not the physical supply constraint. The Hormuz disruption reflects a physical closure — Iranian military assets controlling the waterway — not a storage or capacity shortfall. A 300-400 million barrel release (even if fully deployed over 90 days, that’s ~3-4 million bbl/day of supply injection) partially offsets the estimated 15-20 million bbl/day of Hormuz throughput that has been disrupted. It is sufficient to prevent a near-term price spiral toward $150+ but insufficient to fully replace Hormuz transit. Bullish dimension: the record scale of the intervention signals G7 governments view $100+ oil as an unacceptable economic threat, and their collective firepower (estimated 300-400M barrels globally) provides a meaningful supply floor. Bearish dimension: if Hormuz remains closed for 30+ more days, 3-4M bbl/day of SPR supply represents only 15-25% of the disrupted volume — inadequate for full price correction. The critical variable is conflict duration: if Trump’s “very complete” statement (Story 3) holds, this SPR release may not even need to be fully deployed.

What to watch:G7 energy ministers’ Tuesday meeting for implementation details — specifically: (1) US SPR allocation size (in barrels), (2) release duration and daily rate, (3) whether commercial buyers are confirmed. Kpler flow data within 72 hours to track whether physical barrels are actually moving to market vs. a policy announcement with delayed execution.

3. Trump: “War Is Very Complete, Pretty Much” — Dow Swings 1,130 Points but Iran Fires Ballistic Missiles Same Day

The core facts:President Trump told CBS News’ Weijia Jiang on Monday: “I think the war is very complete, pretty much. They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no Air Force. Their missiles are down to a scatter. Their drones are being blown up all over the place.” He said the campaign was “very far” ahead of his original 4-5 week estimate. Stocks immediately spiked and oil immediately fell within minutes of the statement’s publication — the S&P swung from -1.5% at session lows to close +0.83%, a 2.3% intraday recovery. The Dow recovered 1,130 points from its session low. However, the IDF simultaneously confirmed it had detected another Iranian ballistic missile attack on central Israel on the same day — sirens sounded in central Israel within hours of Trump’s statement. A Wikipedia entry on the “Twelve-Day War ceasefire” suggests a formal ceasefire was eventually reached, but the specific March 9 ceasefire detail could not be confirmed from real-time sources. Trump also told CBS he was “considering taking over” the Strait of Hormuz — a statement that implies the conflict has not yet reached its endpoint.

Why it matters:This is UNCERTAIN because the market has learned — twice in three sessions — that a single Trump statement can drive a 1,000+ point Dow move in either direction. Friday’s “unconditional surrender” post caused an intraday -900 point drop; Monday’s “very complete” comment caused an 1,130-point recovery. This pattern creates a structurally fragile market: the primary price-discovery mechanism has shifted from economic fundamentals to presidential social media and press statements. The fundamental contradiction is stark: Trump declared the war “very complete” while Iran simultaneously launched ballistic missiles at Israel on the same day. Markets chose to price the optimistic narrative. If the next 24-48 hours confirm continued Iranian military activity — additional missile launches, no reduction in Hormuz operational control — the “very complete” trade will reverse just as sharply as it initially moved. The ceasefire reference from Wikipedia suggests the conflict did eventually end within the “Twelve-Day War” framework, which would be a very bullish development for markets, but this was not confirmed as of today’s close.

What to watch:Tuesday morning IDF operational briefing and Iranian state media — any missile or drone activity by Iran would falsify Trump’s “very complete” claim and trigger an immediate reversal. Monitor whether Trump issues a follow-up statement — his Monday evening Truth Social posts will be the first real-time test of whether the ceasefire narrative has official backing.

4. FOMC Blackout Period Begins — Federal Reserve Silenced for 10 Days as Markets Navigate Most Volatile Week of the Conflict

The core facts:The Federal Reserve’s standard blackout period ahead of the March 18-19 FOMC meeting began Monday, March 9. Under Federal Reserve communication rules, no FOMC member — including Chair Powell — may speak publicly or give interviews from 10 days before a meeting through the day after. This blackout runs from today through March 20. The timing is historically unfortunate: the blackout begins the morning after the worst weekly market decline of the Iran conflict, during a week that will include February CPI (March 11), weekly jobless claims, the first major post-NFP economic readings, and a market still processing oil’s breach of $100 and recovery. CME FedWatch as of Monday’s close now prices September 2026 as the most likely first cut (vs. July priced as of Friday), with just one cut fully priced for 2026 (vs. two on Friday).

Why it matters:The Fed’s communications machinery — usually available to “talk the market off ledges” via deliberate use of interviews, speeches, and planted news stories — is completely offline for the most important 10-day information window in months. This leaves markets with two primary policy communication tools: (1) the March 19 statement itself (but that is 10 days away and provides no real-time guidance on oil or CPI), and (2) any non-verbal Fed signals visible in Treasury market operations or repo markets (which are not designed to communicate policy intent). The practical effect: any surprise in Tuesday’s CPI (high or low), any escalation or resolution of the Iran conflict, and any deterioration in credit markets will be processed without any Fed guidance. This amplifies the volatility of any data surprise by removing the “Fed put” signaling mechanism. Markets are fully flying blind on monetary policy until March 19’s statement.

What to watch:March 19 FOMC statement and Powell’s press conference — specifically the updated dot plot. Any change from December’s 1-cut median for 2026 (either to 0 cuts or 2 cuts) will be a major market-moving event. The updated Summary of Economic Projections, incorporating the NFP shock and oil shock for the first time in official Fed projections, will also define the policy framework through mid-year.

5. 1970s Stagflation Comparisons Enter Mainstream Discourse — Ed Yardeni Raises Odds to 35%; CNBC: “How Big a Threat Is It?”

The core facts:Monday’s oil breach of $100 triggered a wave of 1970s stagflation analogies across major financial media. Market veteran Ed Yardeni raised his probability of 1970s-style stagflation to 35%, stating the Iran war “is the latest stress test of the U.S. economy’s resilience since the start of the decade.” CNBC published a feature: “Fears of 1970s-style stagflation arise with oil spike to $100 — How big a threat is it?” The comparison is historically apt: the 1973 Arab oil embargo caused crude to quadruple from $3 to $12, triggering a recession with concurrent high inflation (stagflation) that the Fed did not fully resolve until the Volcker shock of the early 1980s. The 1979 Iran revolution caused a second oil shock that doubled prices and produced a 9% CPI surge by end-1979. The structural parallel for 2026: oil prices have increased approximately 51% from the pre-conflict baseline in 10 days, US unemployment has risen to 4.4% (third payroll decline in five months), and CPI pressure is accelerating from the supply side while monetary policy tools are constrained by the same dual mandate they were in the 1970s.

Why it matters:When a 35% stagflation probability enters the mainstream financial media (not just fringe forecasters), it triggers institutional asset allocation shifts: defensives (utilities, consumer staples, healthcare) are re-rated higher, growth equities (long-duration tech) are sold as the discount rate rises, real assets (REITs, infrastructure, physical commodity ETFs) attract flows, and credit positions are de-risked. The 1970s scenario is NOT the base case — the US economy today has lower energy intensity (energy per unit of GDP) than in the 1970s, the oil shock is shock-driven rather than cartel-driven (meaning it could reverse faster), and the Fed has institutional credibility the 1970s Fed lacked. However, Goldman Sachs (35% recession probability) and JPMorgan (35-40%) converging on Yardeni’s 35% stagflation figure is a signal that all three major frameworks — recession, stagflation, and soft landing — are now priced within close range of each other, creating maximum portfolio uncertainty.

What to watch:Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas stagflation indicator (next release mid-March). A reading above the 50% probability threshold for stagflation — defined by the Dallas Fed as simultaneous above-trend inflation and below-trend growth — would be the first institutional data confirmation of the 1970s scenario that market commentators are currently pricing probabilistically.

D. MODERATE-IMPACT STORIES -> TOP

6. Defense Sector Hits All-Time Highs — NOC +6%, LMT Reaches $692 Record as B-21 Raider Makes Operational Debut

The core facts:The US aerospace and defense sector reached a historic inflection point Monday, with major contractors shattering resistance levels on extraordinary volume. Northrop Grumman (NOC) surged 6% on its largest trading volume in years as the B-21 Raider stealth bomber made its operational debut in the Iran conflict, confirming the program’s combat readiness to institutional investors who had priced deployment risk as a multi-year uncertainty. Lockheed Martin (LMT) hit an all-time high of $692 per share — a 44% gain over the past three months — driven by precision munition inventory replenishment demand and long-cycle capex expectations. RTX Corporation’s backlog swelled to a record $268 billion, with Tomahawk and AMRAAM missile demand forcing accelerated manufacturing timelines. The defense sector as a whole has risen 40-44% since the conflict began February 28 — its strongest 10-day run in modern history.

Why it matters:Defense contractor valuation fundamentally re-rates when a conflict transitions from “contingency scenario” to “active multi-year procurement cycle.” That transition happened today with the B-21’s operational debut: the program — which cost $203B in development — has validated combat performance, triggering the Congressional appropriations cycle that follows confirmed operational deployment. RTX’s $268B backlog represents approximately 3.5 years of revenue at current run rates, providing extraordinary earnings visibility that is entirely independent of the macro environment’s consumer/credit headwinds. The multi-year nature of defense capex (weapons systems take 18-36 months to manufacture from order to delivery) means the earnings tailwind from Monday’s demand surge will compound through FY2027-2028. For portfolio managers navigating the stagflation environment, defense offers the rare combination of macro-immunity (DOD budget is mandatory spending), pricing power (cost-plus contracts), and growth acceleration — the structural “safe haven” with growth characteristics.

What to watch:Congressional supplemental appropriations request timeline — White House is expected to submit an emergency defense supplemental appropriations bill that will add $30-50B+ to near-term defense budgets. Any leaks or announcements about the supplemental’s size will add another leg to the defense rally. Watch NOC, LMT, and GD for potential all-time high chain reactions as the supplemental is priced in.

7. Cruise Lines Collapse for 7th Straight Session — CCL -6% (S&P 500’s Worst), NCLH -5%, RCL -4% as Oil and Consumer Fears Compound

The core facts:All three major US cruise operators extended their losing streaks to 7 consecutive sessions Monday. Carnival Corporation (CCL) fell 6%, becoming the S&P 500’s worst performer of the day — the company does not hedge its fuel costs, meaning every dollar oil moves directly hits its profit margins with no buffer. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) fell 5%, bringing its 7-day loss to over 10.87%. Royal Caribbean (RCL) fell 4%, with shares now at $272.49 — down 8.74% over the prior week — despite its better fuel hedging position relative to CCL. The combined market cap destruction across the three majors over the 7-session losing streak now exceeds $20 billion.

Why it matters:Cruise stocks face a rare dual-squeeze that makes them uniquely vulnerable in the current environment: (1) fuel cost inflation (oil at $95 vs. the $45-55 range at which cruise company earnings models were built) directly compresses operating margins on existing voyages; (2) consumer confidence deterioration (Conference Board at 91.2 and falling) reduces forward booking demand for discretionary travel — the most discretionary of all consumer spending categories. For Carnival specifically, the no-hedging policy combined with $16B of net debt (as of last filing) creates a credible credit risk scenario at sustained $90+ WTI — if Q1 2026 results show a material EBITDA miss against $4+ fuel costs, credit default swap spreads are likely to widen significantly. The cruise sector is functioning as a real-time barometer of consumer willingness to spend on luxury services in a stagflationary environment.

What to watch:Carnival (CCL) credit default swap spreads — any widening above 300 bps would signal credit markets are beginning to price a liquidity concern. Q1 booking update from any of the three carriers would be the definitive consumer sentiment read. Watch Friday’s UMich preliminary consumer sentiment (March 13) for the first formal data on how $3.45+ gas prices and rising unemployment are affecting household travel intentions.

8. Airlines Extend Losses — UAL -2%, AAL -3%, DAL Off as Jet Fuel at $4.12+ Locks In Q1 Earnings Damage

The core facts:All three major US airline carriers fell Monday, extending losses from Friday’s warning cycle. United Airlines (UAL) fell approximately 2.1%, American Airlines (AAL) dropped 3.2%, and Delta Air Lines (DAL) declined modestly. Jet fuel at the US Gulf Coast remains at $4.12+/gallon — its highest level in nearly four years — and with WTI settling at $94.77, no near-term relief is in sight. The 7th consecutive session of declining airline stocks represents a cumulative market cap loss well above $10 billion for the sector. UAL CEO Scott Kirby’s “meaningful impact” warning from Friday remains the most public guidance signal, but investors are now pricing that Q1 guidance withdrawals are likely from all three carriers if WTI holds above $85 through the quarter-end.

Why it matters:American Airlines carries $36.5 billion in total debt and no fuel hedges — the most structurally fragile of the three majors. At $4.12+/gallon jet fuel sustained through Q1 (vs. an implied full-year fuel cost assumption in prior guidance of roughly $2.20-$2.50/gallon), AAL’s quarterly fuel bill increases by approximately $1-1.5 billion — a figure that could eliminate its projected Q1 operating profit entirely and potentially require debt covenant waivers. This is not yet a near-term bankruptcy risk, but it is the profile of a company that will need to access capital markets in a rising-rate, wide-credit-spread environment — expensive and dilutive. Airlines are also functioning as a transmission mechanism for the oil shock into core CPI: higher jet fuel costs → higher airfares → higher transportation services CPI → embedded inflation that the Fed must address even as growth weakens.

What to watch:American Airlines (AAL) CDS spreads and any guidance update or withdrawal from AAL management (most at-risk of formal credit stress signal). Any of the three majors withdrawing or slashing FY2026 EPS guidance — which becomes increasingly likely at WTI above $85 through March — would be the sector’s formal confirmation of the oil shock’s earnings impact.

9. Gold -1.3%, Silver -3.5% — DXY Surge to 99.69 Overrides Safe-Haven Bid as Inflation Repricing Hits Precious Metals

The core facts:Gold fell approximately 1.3% to ~$5,074/oz and silver fell 3.5% to ~$82.32/oz Monday, despite gold having served as the primary safe-haven asset throughout the Iran conflict. The retreat came as the US Dollar Index (DXY) surged to 99.69 — a 3-month high — and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.22% (+8.2 bps). Both developments reflect a re-pricing of the inflation outlook: as rate cut expectations pushed from July to September, real yields rose and the dollar strengthened, both of which are historically negative for gold and silver. The Financial Content headline captured the dynamic: “Gold and Silver Retreat as Dollar Resurgence and Yield Spikes Dampen Safe-Haven Rally.”

Why it matters:Gold’s retreat from the $5,141 peak (March 6) is counterintuitive — an oil shock should amplify inflation fears and increase gold demand. The explanation lies in the DXY-gold inverse relationship: when the dollar surges (safe-haven dollar bid from non-US investors fleeing oil-importing currencies), gold priced in USD falls even as its real purchasing power holds. This session illustrates the distinction between gold as a “crisis hedge” (effective when dollar weakens) and gold as an “inflation hedge” (effective when real yields are negative). With real yields now rising (nominal yield +8.2 bps while gold falls), the inflation hedge function is being temporarily displaced by the stronger dollar. Silver’s sharper decline (-3.5% vs. gold’s -1.3%) reflects additional pressure: silver’s industrial demand narrative is weaker in a stagflation/recession environment, and it carries less institutional “crisis hedge” demand than gold.

What to watch:Real 10-year yield (TIPS breakeven vs. nominal 10Y) — if real yields remain positive (nominal yield minus inflation expectations above zero), gold faces a structural headwind. A conflict resolution that sends DXY back below 97 and real yields negative (as cut expectations return) would be the trigger for another gold leg up toward the $5,200 level.

10. February CPI Confirmed for Tomorrow — First Oil Shock Transmission Visible; Consensus at 2.7-2.8% YoY; Markets on Edge

The core facts:The BLS confirmed that February 2026 Consumer Price Index data will be released Wednesday March 11 at 8:30 AM ET — the most eagerly awaited inflation data release in months. The February measurement window (Feb 1-28) captured the first 2 days of the Iran conflict (February 28 being the conflict’s start date), meaning the energy price spike will appear in the February data but only partially — the full month’s oil shock transmission will be visible in March CPI. Wall Street consensus estimates have coalesced around 2.7-2.8% year-over-year for headline CPI and approximately 3.1-3.2% for core (ex-food and energy). Any surprise above 3.0% headline or 3.3% core would materially re-price the Fed path and push 10-year yields toward 4.40-4.50%, delivering a significant additional blow to growth equities and rate-sensitive sectors.

Why it matters:This data release is the fulcrum point for the entire Q1 investment framework: a hot CPI print (>3.0%) would force the market to reprice from the current “September cut” base case toward “no 2026 cuts” — a move of approximately 25-30 basis points in the 10-year yield and a meaningful compression of growth equity P/E multiples. A mild CPI print (<2.6%) would confirm the oil shock has not yet embedded in core prices and would revive the July cut thesis, providing relief to rate-sensitive sectors. The FOMC blackout (Story 4) means there will be no Fed guidance about how they interpret the number until March 19’s statement — amplifying market volatility around the 8:30 AM release. January CPI came in at 2.4% — February’s print will show the first direction signal from the oil shock’s early transmission.

What to watch:February CPI tomorrow (March 11, 8:30 AM ET): Headline ≥3.0% → severe market stress event; 2.7-2.8% → in-line, modest relief; ≤2.5% → surprise relief rally. Watch specifically the energy services component (airfares, shipping) and shelter — if core services ex-shelter remains sticky, it will dominate the Fed’s interpretation more than the headline oil pass-through.

E. EARNINGS WATCH -> TOP

Selection criteria: This section covers only market-moving earnings from large-cap companies (>$25B market cap) with sector significance or systemic implications. The S&P 500 scorecard above tracks all 500 index components, but individual stories below focus on names large enough to move markets and provide economic signals relevant to US large-cap portfolio managers. On any given day, 30-80+ companies may report earnings, but MIB filters for the 2-5 names most relevant to institutional investors.

YESTERDAY AFTER THE BELL (Markets Reacted Today)

No major earnings yesterday after the bell from companies with >$25B market cap. Friday’s MIB confirmed no large-cap AMC reporters on March 6. The Q4 2025 earnings season is effectively complete at 96% reported.

TODAY BEFORE THE BELL (Markets Already Reacted)

No major earnings before the bell from companies with >$25B market cap. The Q4 2025 season is effectively complete at 96% of S&P 500 reported.

TODAY AFTER THE BELL (Markets React Tomorrow)

WEEK AHEAD PREVIEW:

With Q4 2025 earnings season effectively complete at 96% of S&P 500 reported, major earnings catalysts are sparse this week outside of Oracle. Oracle (ORCL) reports tonight (March 10 AMC) — Q3 FY2026 AI enterprise cloud results, as covered above. Adobe (ADBE) is expected to report around March 12 AMC (Q1 FY2026); AI-powered creative tools demand and any guidance on the macro impact on enterprise software subscriptions will be closely watched as a second enterprise software data point alongside Oracle. FedEx (FDX) reports around March 19 BMO (Q3 FY2026) — the first major logistics name to report into the Iran war oil shock; fuel surcharge impacts, Middle East air cargo route disruptions, and any supply chain commentary will be primary focus. Q1 2026 earnings season does not begin in earnest until mid-to-late April.

F. ECONOMY WATCH -> TOP

Tracking U.S. economic indicators and commentary from the past 3 days.

G. WHAT’S NEXT -> TOP

UPCOMING THIS WEEK / NEXT 7 DAYS:

KEY QUESTIONS FOR NEXT 5-7 DAYS:

Market Intelligence Brief (MIB) Ver. 14.25
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