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MIB Daily: The AI Trade Failed a Credit Test as CoreWeave Bonds Topped 15%, Hot CPI Lifted Hike Odds to 47% Ahead of PPI, Long Bonds Bet on Slower Growth, and Healthcare, Staples and Energy Took the Lead

By RecessionALERT on October 14, 2026 in Reflections

Hot September CPI (3.7% vs 3.6% expected, core 2.6%) roughly doubled October rate-hike odds to about 47%, and the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.02%. AI infrastructure cracked: CoreWeave’s bonds topped a 15% yield and its stock sank 15.46%, while Oracle dropped 8.83%. Barclays cut Dell to Equal Weight and it slid 11.27%. Iran admitted new tactics against Hormuz shipping; WTI rose 1.09% to $95.17, its highest close since September 24. Healthcare and staples rallied; RBC swapped tech for health care.

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MIB Daily: Oil Crashed on a “Fabrication,” Cook Still Wants to Hike, SNOW Surged 34% — Stagflation Verdict Thursday

By RecessionALERT on May 27, 2026 in Reflections

Iran state media’s Hormuz peace framework crashed WTI 4.69% to $89.49 and lifted the Dow to record 50,670; the White House called it a “complete fabrication.” Fed Governor Cook issued 2026’s clearest hike signal — “I am prepared to raise rates” — with April PCE at 3.8% due Thursday. Snowflake surged 34% on record sequential growth and a $6B AWS deal; QCOM shed 6% after a near-30% weekly run. Thursday’s GDP, PCE, and durables are the year’s peak positioning risk.

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MIB: Oil Crosses $100, Record G7 SPR Release, FOMC Blackout Begins & February CPI Due Tomorrow

By RecessionALERT on March 9, 2026 in Reflections

WTI crude breached $100/bbl intraday (peak $119) — biggest oil supply disruption in history. G7+IEA authorized a record 300-400M barrel SPR release. Trump told CBS “war is very complete” — Dow swung from -900 to +239 in hours (S&P +0.83%, Nasdaq +1.38%). NOC +6%, LMT hit all-time high as defense broke out. CCL -6%, RCL -4% as cruise lines bled. Oracle reports tonight; February CPI drops tomorrow.

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