WLEI updated and some news

The U.S Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) as at 01 Feb 2019 has been updated to our front page together with historical vintages file. Here is a snapshot of the last few vintages:

We seem to be revising down each week but the overall shape of the WLEI still hints at an index attempting to put in a bottom and recover.

The percentage of underlying weekly components and the percentage of time the WLEI has historically been above current levels remains similar from last weeks reading:

For several quarters now we have been working on getting additional high frequency weekly leading economic data incorporated into the WLEI. It is a lot easier said than done but we are close to the final release of WLEI2 which has 20% more discrete weekly components. What we like about it is that none of the components rely on any shut-down federal agencies which means it should be fairly impervious to an extended government shutdown.

To whet you appetite and interest, it is shown below at its reading last week:

There are very few weekly leading US economic composites that remain pure to their mandate of only using weekly published data, that have not suffered from false positives in the last two business cycles, so WLEI  V2.0 is looking very promising.

Have a good weekend.

Dwaine van Vuuren.

About Dwaine Van Vuuren

Dwaine has a Bachelor of Science honors degree and is a full-time trader and investor. His passion for numbers and keen research & analytic ability has helped grow RecessionALERT into a company used by hundreds of hedge funds, brokerage firms and financial advisers around the world.

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