Based on the methodology discussed here we hereby update our U.S Yield-curve inversion forecast and subsequent recession and stock market peak forecasts. All the forecast dates have moved foward by 1 month as the yield curve continues to print below its regression mean: As a matter of interest, 60% of all 10 possible term-spreads have now inverted, as shown below with our average yield curve composite of all 10 term-spreads: We have inversions on all the typical early inverters: 5’s […]
Archive | February, 2019
World in depths of business cycle slowdown
On 8th June 2018 we penned a warning that the worlds’ major 41 economies, as tracked by the OECD, were headed for a synchronized business cycle slowdown. You can read the article here : World headed for cyclical slowdown. Indeed, as you can see below, for quite a few months shortly afterward, we bottomed out with less than 11% of the 41 countries tracked having rising OECD LEIs: The percentage of 41 counties with a rising LEI seems to have […]
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WLEI updated and some news
The U.S Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) as at 01 Feb 2019 has been updated to our front page together with historical vintages file. Here is a snapshot of the last few vintages: We seem to be revising down each week but the overall shape of the WLEI still hints at an index attempting to put in a bottom and recover. The percentage of underlying weekly components and the percentage of time the WLEI has historically been above current levels […]
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