USMLEI Oct-2022 Published

By RecessionALERT on November 30, 2022 in Reflections

The U.S Monthly Leading Economic Index (USMLEI) PDF report for October 2022 has just been published in Reports Centre.

The USMLEI plunged in October from -9.3 to -19.7, printing its 4th negative print. The USSHORT (short leading index) went from +5.1 to -7.4, its first recession print. The USLONG (long leading index) went from -32.2 to -37.8, its 7th negative print.

Using the average/median lead times of the various models, together with how long they have already been in recession territory, we can make some rough estimates on recession start dates :

The largest negative inputs for October were from state-wide data, namely the number of US states with deteriorating employment conditions (we saw that yesterday already in the Labor Report alert) and the number of US states with deteriorating coincident indexes.

BACKGROUND

The U.S Monthly Leading Economic Index (USMLEI) is a composite of 6 long-leading and 17 medium-to-short leading economic & financial components that provides a 6-9 month economic outlook for the U.S. We also show a long-leading composite (USLONG) and a short-leading composite (USSHORT) on the last page of the report.

With twenty-three (23) components, the USMLEI is one of the most comprehensive US leading economic indexes published today. The 23 components capture a broad essence of U.S future economic growth from Manufacturing, Inventories & Sales, the Housing market, Freight shipments & revenues, Employment, the Stock market, the Treasury & Corporate Bond market, the Credit Markets, Sentiment Surveys, lending standards and percentage of 50 individual State economic indexes showing recession.

All data-series are standardized (mean zero, variance 1) and then constructed to display from -100 to +100. As a further unique aspect, we also track five (5) completely different statistical recession probability derivations to provide for robust recession forecasting.

Click here for the USMLEI Research Note.

About RecessionALERT

Dwaine has a Bachelor of Science (BSc Hons) university degree majoring in computer science, math & statistics and is a full-time trader and investor. His passion for numbers and keen research & analytic ability has helped grow RecessionALERT into a company used by hundreds of hedge funds, brokerage firms and financial advisers around the world.

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