Our GeoNote series has mapped the Iran war, the ceasefire, the molecular shock, the new Hormuz toll regime, the paper-physical divergence, and the equity-market mechanism — one continuous analytical thesis built phase by phase. What remains unmapped is the timeline on which the crisis stops being a market event and becomes a household one. Reserves do not run out globally — they run out unevenly, country by country, commodity by commodity. The household crosses the gap on its own balance sheet.
Tag Archives | OECD
MIB: Stagflation Trap — Iran Sends Oil Past $101 While Google’s AI Crushes Semis and Meta Faces $Billions in Verdicts
Iran denies US peace talks, pushing Brent crude past $101 and extending the Hormuz chokehold. Google’s TurboQuant crushed semiconductor stocks (LRCX -9.4%, AMAT -8.3%, AMD -7.5%, MU -7%). Meta shed 8% on a landmark social media addiction verdict. Nasdaq entered correction territory (-10%). OECD raised US inflation forecast to 4.2% for 2026, highest in G7. BlackRock downgraded US equities to neutral as stagflation fears mount.
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On the brink of Global Recession
The Global Economy is on the brink of a recession with 58% of 29 OECD countries experiencing business cycle contractions. The chart below shows OECD defined global contractions (grey shaded areas) together with the percentage of 29 OECD member countries experiencing slowdowns. It is evident that whenever 50% or more of countries enter contraction (red dotted line) that the odds of global recession are very high. The blue lines show NBER recessions for the U.S and we see that whilst […]
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Can the U.S skirt global recession?
With many parts of the Euro-zone entering or already in recession, and the OECD recently putting Australia, Germany and Italy into recession, one has to wonder if the feeble U.S recovery can skirt a global recession. Many mainstream pundits have been pointing to countries around the globe slipping into recession as a reason why a U.S recession in the near future is a done deal. But this is not necessarily the case. The chart below shows which percentage of the 39 OECD countries across the world have their […]
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