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MIB Daily: AI Is Now the Fed’s Inflation Problem as Applied Materials Sinks 6.69%, Aramco Burns After Oil Settles, and BlackRock and Citi Step Back From Stocks at a 5.2% 10-Year Before CPI

By RecessionALERT on October 13, 2026 in Reflections

NY Fed Vice Chair Williams sees one more hike this year and none in 2027, a ceiling futures refuse to price, while Boston’s Collins wants rates “a bit further” higher. A Houthi missile set part of Saudi Aramco’s Dhahran headquarters ablaze after oil settled. Bank of America drew a $1.2B anti-money-laundering penalty on the eve of earnings. Applied Materials sank 6.69% on a missing spending forecast while Meta rose 2.63%. Citi and BlackRock both stepped back from US stocks.

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MIB Daily: One Sector Bought the Rally on the Day Washington Proposed Taxing It, Tech +3.09% Against an NYSE Down 0.38%, Three Fed Hawks Moved the Two-Year 0.8bp, PANW +12.83% on an Unsigned Deal, Warsh Friday

By RecessionALERT on August 27, 2026 in Reflections

Technology surged 3.09% and carried the S&P 500 up 0.72% — while the NYSE Composite fell and eight of eleven sectors closed red. Cleveland’s Hammack says “now is the time to act” on a rate hike; the two-year moved 0.8bp. July’s goods trade gap blew out to $118.8B on a 68.7% jump in Korean chip imports — the same flow Washington is weighing tariffing. Palo Alto +12.83% on deal reports. Nvidia is said to be buying Hugging Face for $12.9B.

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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.