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MIB Daily: The Democratic Sweep Became a Tax on the AI Trade, Micron and AMD Sank 17% and the VIX Jumped 69%, While Traders Cut Hike Odds to 64% as Fed Hawks Held Firm and Treasuries Rallied

By RecessionALERT on November 5, 2026 in Reflections

AI stocks crashed on fears a Democratic Congress will slow the data-center buildout: the S&P 500 fell 4.36% and the Nasdaq 100 fell 6.36%, the worst day since April 2025. Micron (-17.46%) and AMD (-17.26%) led the Philadelphia Semiconductor index’s 12.25% plunge. The VIX jumped 69% to 28.15; the 2-year yield fell 11.7 bps. Fed hawks held their tightening line even as Polymarket odds of another 2026 hike fell to 64%. Brent rose 4.65% on fresh Hormuz tanker attacks.

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MIB Daily: Wall Street Bought AI Again but Bonds Didn’t, Amazon Jumped 4.98% While a 5.145% 10-Year Sank Housing, REITs and Utilities, as Gulf Risk Builds Ahead of Meta’s Capex Test

By RecessionALERT on October 19, 2026 in Reflections

Amazon jumped 4.98% after Morgan Stanley named it a Top Pick, and the SMH chip ETF snapped a nine-session slide as the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.17%. Only three of 11 sectors gained: the 10-year yield climbed 5.5 bps to 5.145% and utilities fell 1.86%. Builder confidence hit a 14-year low. Trump waived the Graham Act’s Russia tariffs, and Houthis claimed unverified strikes on Aramco’s Yanbu site. Anthropic is reportedly in talks for about $45 billion more Nscale compute.

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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.