Tag Archives | macro

RecessionALERT Valuation Index (RAVI)

PART-1 There are currently 4 mainstream models used to forecast 10-year total returns on the SP-500 (dividends re-invested) The Shiller CAPE ratio (PE10) The Warren Buffet Indicator Tobin’s Q-Ratio Average Investor allocation to stocks The non-linear quarterly correlations between these four models (x-axes) and achieved 10-year future total returns (y-axes) on the SP-500 since 1970 are […]

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Valuations not at nose-bleed levels yet

The recent run in the major U.S stock indices has resulted in Shiller-PE charts being trotted out showing how far we are off the historical mean, implying a nasty pullback is in the works. The problem with a historical mean is that it is a single horizontal value on a chart that fails to take […]

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  THU 29 SEP : CERTAIN PROBABILITY MODELS TO BE DISCONTINUED FROM 1 OCT