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Unemployment more widespread than thought

By RecessionALERT on August 22, 2016 in Reflections

The Total Non-farm Payrolls data made another solid print for the month of July 2016, leading to the assumption that all is good with employment in the U.S: Similarly, if we examine the countrywide Civilian Unemployment Rate, we also get reassuring signs: However, if we dig deeper and examine the per-state unemployment rates for 52 U.S states from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a very different picture emerges: The average state unemployment rate seems to be putting in a bottom, […]

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Yellen Labor Dashboard reaches target

By RecessionALERT on August 12, 2015 in Reflections

“Full Employment” target reached Shortly after taking up office, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen used her “jobs data dashboard” to justify the Fed’s easy money policies and to argue there’s still considerable slack in the labor market five years after the recession’s end. Seven of the nine gauges on this dashboard had not recovered to levels reached before the last recession, reinforcing her belief that the economy would need “extraordinary support” from the Federal Reserve for “some time to come.” It […]

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Yellen’s Labor Dashboard suggests tightening in 2016

By RecessionALERT on April 4, 2014 in Reflections

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen recently used her “jobs data dashboard” to justify the Fed’s easy money policies and to argue there’s still considerable slack in the labor market five years after the recession’s end. Seven of the nine gauges on this dashboard have not recovered to levels reached before the last recession, reinforcing her belief that the economy will need “extraordinary support” from the Federal Reserve for “some time to come.” It appears the Federal Reserve has changed emphasis from […]

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Labor Market flags U.S Recession on horizon

By RecessionALERT on November 11, 2013 in Reflections

Labor data last week surprised to the upside and pointed to an improvement in hiring and by implication the labor market. However, our leading Labor Market Growth Index, which tracks various diversified aspects of the general U.S labor market, experienced a sharp drop for the data representing the end of October 2013, to below the zero growth line. This is typically a signal for recession in 5-9 months time. However, we normally smooth the raw monthly data to cater for […]

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