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MIB Weekly: The Fed Talked Tough, the Jobs Data Called Its Bluff — Rotate Out of Memory Chips as Dow Hits 52,900

By RecessionALERT on July 2, 2026 in Reflections

The S&P 500 gained 1.76% this holiday-shortened week as the Dow notched three fresh records, but a violent AI-infrastructure whipsaw defined the tape: Monday’s snapback reversed into a two-day global semiconductor rout after Meta’s AI-cloud pivot (META +8.85% then -4.90%) triggered a KOSPI circuit breaker. The bigger story was labor: June nonfarm payrolls badly missed at 57K vs. 115K consensus, forcing markets to price out a near-term Fed hike even as Fed officials talked tough on inflation days earlier.

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MIB Daily: SCOTUS 5-4 and Iran Ease Spark Rally; Bond Non-Confirmation Warns — Overweight Semis, Fade Duration Into 75K NFP Thursday

By RecessionALERT on June 29, 2026 in Reflections

The Supreme Court preserved Fed independence 5-4 (Lisa Cook stays) while overturning Humphrey’s Executor 6-3, sending the Nasdaq 100 to a 2.26% gain. NVIDIA’s $3.2B Corning AI deal drove GLW +15.7% and SOXX +3.76% as Alphabet debuted on the Dow, crossing 52,000. Iran’s ‘stand down’ unwound gold -1.60% but Doha talks Tuesday face structural friction. Pantheon projects Thursday’s NFP at 75K vs 172K in May — stagflation signal crystallizing. Strategy plans to sell $1.25B in Bitcoin, flipping BTC supply negative.

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