fairlife | RecessionAlert

Tag Archives | fairlife

MIB Daily: Kimi K3 Cracks the AI-Capex Story as Oil Hits a 4-Week High and the Fed Turns Hawkish — Energy Wins as Chips Lose Into FOMC

By RecessionALERT on July 17, 2026 in Reflections

Chip stocks cratered into a bear market as China’s Moonshot unveiled Kimi K3, an AI model rivaling US systems — erasing $3.3T in sector value since June. Oil hit a four-week high on a sixth night of US Iran strikes and a hit on Kuwait’s desalination plant. Cleveland Fed’s Hammack turned hawkish as China import prices posted their steepest jump since 2008. FAA restored Boeing’s MAX/787 self-certify authority. Coca-Cola’s fairlife halted output after a ransomware hit; SpaceX scrubbed Starship Flight 13.

Read full story · Comments are closed

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.