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MIB Daily: AI Is Now Competing With Treasuries for Money, as SpaceX’s $40B Debt Plan and a Split Fed Lift the 10-Year to a 24-Year High and Small Caps Pay Ahead of Thursday’s 30-Year Auction

By RecessionALERT on October 7, 2026 in Reflections

Fed minutes show most officials expect another hike by year-end and record market concern that AI borrowing is lifting term premiums. The 10-year yield touched a 24-year intraday high of 5.364% before a strong $39B auction pulled it back. IEA members agreed to speed up emergency oil releases, and WTI settled down $1.16 despite a crude draw. Deere fell 3.8% on a new FTC-USDA farm-equipment inquiry. Platinum dropped 4.1% as the dollar posted its highest close in 122 sessions.

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MIB Daily: The Backstop Lasted One Day, With Volatility Rising Alongside Yields to 5.248%, Walmart Down 9.15% on a Beat, and Memory and Bitcoin the Only Bid Before Warsh Speaks on August 28

By RecessionALERT on August 20, 2026 in Reflections

Wednesday’s Treasury buyback rally unwound in one session — 30-year back to 5.248%, S&P -0.87%, Dow -1.32%, VIX +7.52%. Bessent promised a bigger program, and “the toughest sanctions in history” on Iran: WTI +2.28%, gasoline a record for the date. Musalem and Daly split on whether the long end is a credibility warning. Walmart -9.15% on a comps miss. Memory bucked the tape again: Marvell +5.79%, Micron +3.97%. Bitcoin +5.07% past $72,000. Canada’s 50% duties attach Saturday with nothing published.

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