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MIB Weekly: WTI -9% (Iran MoU), 2Y +9 bps (Warsh Hike Signal), SOX Record (Apple-Intel) — Which Inflation Arc Wins H2?

By RecessionALERT on June 20, 2026 in Reflections

WTI crude fell 9% as the US and Iran confirmed a 60-day Hormuz ceasefire, deflating the energy inflation premium that locked the Fed out of cuts — but Warsh’s inaugural FOMC promptly reclaimed that space: 9 of 18 members projected a 2026 hike, pushing 2Y yields to a 14-month high. Against both forces, the SOX hit a record as Trump’s Apple–Intel foundry deal capped a week where AI hardware proved rate-cycle-agnostic.

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MIB Daily: Iran’s oil move does what eight months of hawkishness couldn’t — WTI −4.2% to $81 reopens the easing path, PHLX Semi +7.9% confirms AI broadening, and Warsh’s dot-plot Wednesday is the verdict

By RecessionALERT on June 15, 2026 in Reflections

US-Iran peace deal formalizes Hormuz reopening — WTI −4.2% to $81 unlocks the rate-path debate ahead of Wednesday’s Warsh FOMC. Computex 2026: PHLX Semi +7.9%, MU +11%, WDC +16%; HBM4 sold out through year-end. SPCX +19% Day 2 to $192; $2.5T market cap passes Apple. Fox acquires Roku for $22B; FOXA −16%. Empire State June 5.7 vs. 14.0 exp. — tariff front-running demand reversal confirmed. Housing 26th consecutive sub-50; 35% of builders cutting prices; Starts data due Tuesday.

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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.