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MIB Daily: Intel’s 28.58% Plunge Reprices AI Leaders as Three Fed Presidents Push Hikes and Gold Sinks 3.63%, Leaving Treasuries the Only Hedge, With a December Hike Near 76% Awaiting Payrolls

By RecessionALERT on October 30, 2026 in Reflections

Intel (INTC) plunged 28.58%, dragging AMD down 10.88% and leaving the Nasdaq 100 down 3.46% and 9.1% below its October 6 close. Three Fed presidents argued for more hikes, yet the 10-year yield fell 6.1 bps. Limpet mines hit a Hormuz tanker as Brent rose 1.39% to $112.34. Gold sank 3.63% and silver fell 6.20%, removing a haven. Binance’s $6.3 billion theft drew CFTC fire, and Bitcoin fell 2.50%. Global Payments jumped 12.97% on buyout talk.

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MIB Daily: The AI Boom’s Suppliers Became Its Bankers as AMD Rose 5.45% on a $1 Billion Meta Stake, but the 2-Year’s 9.3 bps Climb Says Bonds Doubt Wall Street’s Calm Into the Fed, With Crude Priced for Peace

By RecessionALERT on October 27, 2026 in Reflections

AMD jumped 5.45% after committing $1 billion to Meta’s equity raise and winning a custom-GPU deployment, leading the Nasdaq 100 up 1.29% and the S&P 500 back above 7,700. Meta fell 1.64% after pricing $37.5 billion of equity and facing a suit over Zuckerberg’s recap. Consumer confidence leapt to 91.7 against an 81 forecast as the FOMC meeting opened. Boeing sank 10.69% after earnings, pinning the Dow to a 0.03% gain. WTI slid 1.55% to $100.18 on Iran’s regional diplomacy.

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MIB Daily: Stocks Priced the Fed, Bonds Priced the Bill, as the Nasdaq Hit a Record With the 10-Year at 5.315%, Services Prices at a 2022 High and a 2% Oil Drop the Only Inflation Relief Before This Week’s Auctions

By RecessionALERT on October 5, 2026 in Reflections

Megacap tech carried the Nasdaq to a record close (+1.05%) and Nvidia to its own record (+2.12%) as October Fed-hike odds fell to 24%. Bonds dissented: the 10-year rose to 5.315%, its highest close in over two decades per Reuters. ISM’s services prices index climbed to 74.0, highest since July 2022. Crude fell about 2% on recovering Mideast exports despite weekend Houthi strikes on Aramco. Schneider to buy PTC for $23.7B; PTC +33%. Bolsonaro upset lifts Petrobras ADRs 11.5%.

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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.