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MIB Daily: Housing Breaks Under 5.1% Yields Yet a December Hike Is Now Consensus, Nvidia Can’t Promise Supply on $35B of China Orders, Brent’s Floor Rises and Healthcare Lifts the Dow as Chips Slide

By RecessionALERT on October 20, 2026 in Reflections

Housing cracked under 5.1% Treasury yields: September starts fell 5.2% to 1.221M against a 1.30M consensus and pending sales plunged 7.3%. A Reuters poll now has nearly all economists expecting a December Fed hike. Healthcare led a rotation out of tech, lifting the Dow 1.02% to its highest close since September 11, while Brent reversed from a $111.99 intraday high. Anthropic’s draft IPO filing showed $16.3B first-half revenue and ~$450B of cloud commitments. Salesforce agreed to buy Braze; BRZE +51.7%.

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MIB Daily: OpenAI’s $70B Saved Software but Not the Chips, Long-Run Inflation Expectations Hit 3.5% and Lifted the 2-Year, and Washington Set a Hearing on Firing Fed Governor Cook

By RecessionALERT on October 9, 2026 in Reflections

Software lifted the S&P 500 0.59% back above 7,800 after Bloomberg said OpenAI expects at least $70B in annualized revenue by year-end, but Intel and AMD kept sliding. Michigan long-run inflation expectations hit 3.5%, the highest since May, while the 2-year yield rose 3.7 bps. The White House set a Nov 5 hearing on whether to remove Fed Governor Cook. Treasury licensed Russian diesel imports through April 2027. Apple reportedly cut iPhone 18 Pro component orders at least 15%.

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