Cisco’s AI quarter — orders raised to $9B, hyperscaler demand +217% YoY — ignited the AI complex; all major indices hit records, Dow retook 50,000. Trump-Xi’s 9-point summit (200 Boeing jets, Hormuz pact, trade board) broadened the rally; transports led at +1.40%. April import prices nearly doubled estimates (+1.9% vs +1.0%), compounding 6.0% PPI; December rate-hike odds now 39%. Warsh assumes Fed Chair tomorrow with the hottest trade inflation since 2022. Cerebras (CBRS) IPO +68% — largest tech debut of 2026.
MIB: Cisco AI Orders Surge, Trump-Xi Summit Ignites Rally, Import Prices Double Estimates
MIB: Ceasefire Collapse, Productivity Miss, and FOMC Dissent Fracture the Bull Case
Iran accused US forces of ceasefire violations, reversing Wednesday’s record rally — WTI +2.71% to $97.66, S&P 500 –0.38%, 10-of-11 sectors red. Q1 nonfarm productivity hit +0.8% (biggest miss since 2023) with ULC at +2.3% and real wages turning negative. Hammack called the FOMC’s rate-cut signal “misleading,” formalizing the 4-dissenter bloc — hike optionality is live. Challenger April cuts +38% MoM with AI driving 26%, collapsing Friday’s NFP consensus to ~60K. Boeing CEO joins Trump’s China delegation; 600-aircraft deal speculation lifts BA.
MIB: Ceasefire Rally to Records, Oil Surges Past $100, GEV Confirms AI Power Boom
Trump extended the Iran ceasefire indefinitely — S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit simultaneous all-time records for the first time since the war began Feb. 28. Oil defied the peace signal, surging above $100 as Iran seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz. GEV +13.75%: Q1 data center orders exceeded all of 2025, validating the AI power thesis. Tesla AMC: EPS beat but delivery miss and energy storage collapse cloud the outlook. CUSMA renewal “unlikely by July 1,” USTR warns.
MIB: Iran Off-Ramp Sparks Risk-On Rally While SpaceX Goes Public and the Energy Trade Unwinds
Iran peace talk sends S&P +0.72%, WTI below $100 for first time in weeks. SpaceX files confidential IPO at $1.75T valuation — could be largest in history. Intel reclaims Irish fab from Apollo for $14.2B; INTC +8.79%, chip sector surges. Lilly’s Foundayo becomes first oral GLP-1 weight-loss pill (LLY +3.78%). IEA warns April oil supply crisis twice as bad as March. Trump floats NATO exit; XOM -5.23%, CVX -4.59%.
MIB: Q4 GDP Revised to 0.7%, Iran Vows Hormuz Shut, S&P Posts Third Weekly Loss, Adobe CEO Exits
Iran’s new supreme leader vows Hormuz closure permanent; WTI near $100 for second straight day. Q4 GDP revised to +0.7% — stagflation trap confirmed. S&P 500 records third consecutive weekly loss, Nasdaq -0.68%. Adobe (ADBE) -7.5% as CEO Narayen exits after 18 years despite record Q1 beat. Trump’s Russia oil sanctions relief fails, allies furious. All eyes on FOMC March 17-18 — Powell’s stagflation signal is next week’s defining risk.
