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MIB Daily: The Fed’s First Hike Since 2023 Leaves October a 51-49 Coin-Flip, J.B. Hunt’s Diesel Warning Sinks Transports 2.78% and Banks Find the Hike Doesn’t Pay, So Favour Short Duration Over Rate-Sensitive Cyclicals

By RecessionALERT on September 16, 2026 in Reflections

The Fed hiked for the first time since 2023 and 16 of 18 officials see more — October is now a coin-flip and the 10-Year closed above 5%. August retail sales smashed forecasts at +1.2% while import prices ran hottest since 2022. Transports sank 2.78% as J.B. Hunt (-13.3%) warned on diesel and driver costs. Goldman (-4.0%) and Huntington (-5.6%) dragged banks. Crude fell 3.4% on Saudi pipeline repair hopes. GE Vernova (+4.8%) and Intel (+4.0%) bucked the tape.

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MIB: Stagflation Flush — Oil $105, DJTA –4.82%, Spirit Liquidated, Williams Kills 2026 Cuts

By RecessionALERT on May 4, 2026 in Reflections

Iran escalated Monday — UAE activated missile defenses, Trump rejected Tehran’s 14-point proposal — driving WTI to $105/bbl and a 10-of-11-sector S&P selloff. Amazon’s Supply Chain Services launch cratered UPS –10% and FedEx –9%, applying the AWS playbook to logistics. Spirit Airlines liquidated — first major US carrier collapse in 25 years — after $4.51/gallon jet fuel killed a $500M federal rescue. NY Fed’s Williams raised 2026 inflation to 3%, signaling no cuts; the SLOOS confirmed C&I tightening across all firm sizes.

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MIB: FOMC Day One, Oil Resumes Rally, Amazon’s $600B AI Bet, and a Brutal LLY Downgrade

By RecessionALERT on March 17, 2026 in Reflections

Oil resumed its climb — WTI $96, Brent $103+ — as FOMC Day 1 began and Monday’s de-escalation optimism faded. Amazon CEO Jassy doubled AWS 10-year target to $600B on AI demand (AMZN +1%). HSBC issued a rare Sell on LLY (-5.3%) citing GLP-1 market TAM saturation and imminent price wars. February retail sales beat (+0.6%) showed the consumer holding firm. Delta (DAL +6%) and American (AAL +4%) lifted Q1 guidance — travel demand crushing oil cost headwinds.

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