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MIB Weekly: Stagflation Confirmed, AI Capex Accelerating, Summit Resolved Nothing — Own Energy & AI Infrastructure, Sell Rate-Sensitive Duration Through the Fall Diplomatic Window

By RecessionALERT on May 16, 2026 in Reflections

WTI crude surged +11.52% to $105.48 as US-Iran ceasefire talks collapsed — “garbage” per Trump Tuesday — while CPI 3.8% and PPI 6.0% pushed rate-hike odds from under 3% to over 50% in 72 hours and the 10Y to a one-year high of 4.601%. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair inheriting this stagflation stack. The Trump-Xi summit briefly drove records (S&P 7,500, Dow 50,000 Thursday) before crashing Friday on zero binding deals — tariffs, chips, and Taiwan all unresolved.

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ECONOMY: U.S 1Q2026 Report

By RecessionALERT on May 1, 2026 in Reflections

The Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate prints at 2.0% on three non-repeatable tailwinds — a federal payroll rebound, a tariff-driven inventory surge, and an AI capex pulse accounting for up to 79% of the print on a gross basis. Strip those out and the underlying pace is closer to the high-1s. Core PCE jumped 160 basis points in a single quarter to 4.3%. The Fed cannot cut into 4% inflation and cannot hike into a slowing consumer. The policy trap is set.

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