13 | August | 2026 | RecessionAlert

Archive | August 13, 2026

MIB Daily: Silver Lake’s $43B Workday Bid Buys the AI Discount, SanDisk +13.67% vs Cisco -8.40% on the Same Memory Squeeze, and a 10-Year That Won’t Follow the 2-Year Down — Own Software LBOs, Watch Hardware Margins

By RecessionALERT on August 13, 2026 in Reflections

S&P 500 closes above 7,800 for the first time — flat July PPI knocked 2026 hike odds from 55% to under 35%. Hours later, Cleveland’s Hammack demanded an immediate hike, and said one won’t be enough. Silver Lake circles Workday at $43B; Ackman buys six AI-discounted franchises. SanDisk +13.67% on memory tightness; Cisco -8.40% on the same. Reddit joins the S&P 500 next Tuesday; Anthropic’s October IPO is being modelled at $2 trillion. Six days to the Canada tariff cliff.

Read full story · Comments are closed

MARKETS: Thin Loop. Rigid Lease. One Recognition Date.

By RecessionALERT on August 13, 2026 in Research Papers

For eight months the same argument has circulated: hyperscalers fund AI labs, labs buy chips, chip revenue validates the hyperscalers. The loop is real. It is also thin — $46bn of equity cash against $879bn of purchase commitments, on the circulating chart’s own legend. The binding constraint sits where nobody is drawing arrows: roughly $2.6tn of arm’s-length obligations owed to landlords, utilities and builders, non-cancellable, with an accounting recognition that lands from 2027. The loop is not the risk. The lease is.

Read full story · Comments are closed

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: Although many of our models rely heavily on back-testing, optimisation and probability methods, please note that past performance is NO GUARANTEE for future returns. No system devised by man can predict the future, let alone the future of the markets and economies. What we have are sets of mathematical models that use historical data and varying theories to pinpoint places in time when the STATISTICAL LIKELYHOOD of calling the start and end to recessions is the greatest. In the midst of all the best mathematical models, you can have geo-political events, wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters and even nuclear accidents that tip everything upside down. This is always a risk factor you need to factor in on any recession call no matter how confident you are in a signal. The SuperIndexes are created through mathematical and statistical optimisation techniques that best fit the historical NBER data. There is no guarantee that out-of-sample performance will match that of prior in-sample performance.