Global Slowdown?
What Global Slowdown?
We can’t see it.
Maybe we are blind.
Total world economic activity as measured from the average of world trade volumes and industrial production, saw a soft landing but is clearly on an upward trajectory:
World trade volumes (average of imports and exports) in particular are showing strong growth, emerging convincingly from its recent trough:
The % of OECD countries with a positive rolling four-quarter cumulative GDP is back up to 75% having posted its 3rd consecutive upward print. 2Q-2022 was clearly a soft landing for real-quarterly GDP growth, but since then its back to long-term trend (dashed line):
The Global LEI is rising, most notably the far-forward looking net percentage of OECD countries with rising LEI’s and the net percentage of central banks easing rates:
The evidence, both coincident and leading, does not point to a global slowdown. At least not yet.
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