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MIB Weekly: The S&P Went Nowhere and Everything Under It Moved, WTI +9.22% With Energy Equities Not Following, SNDK +17.17% vs PANW -10.32%, FICO -16.68% by Directive, September Repriced Three Times, Still a Coin Flip

By RecessionALERT on September 5, 2026 in Reflections

The September FOMC was repriced three times in five sessions and ended where it started: Barr said hike, Waller said hold, and Friday’s 162,000-payroll blowout against a 56,000 consensus flipped implied odds back to 58-60%. Underneath it, five days of US-Iran exchanges put WTI up 9.22% and took retail diesel to an all-time record $5.850, six days before the CPI on which Waller staked his vote. Technology split in half: Sandisk +17.17% against Palo Alto -10.32%.

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MIB Daily: Payrolls 162K Against 56K Bought a September Hike, the President Demanded Cuts Anyway, and Memory Rallied Regardless as Record $5.850 Diesel Leaves One CPI Print Deciding the Meeting

By RecessionALERT on September 4, 2026 in Reflections

August payrolls tripled expectations at 162,000 and flipped September back to a coin-flip hike — implied odds 58-60%. The selloff was narrow: Netflix -5.35%, Palantir -4.49%, while memory ran hard (Sandisk +11.90%, Micron +6.10%). Tesla -5.92% as NHTSA opened an audit query into how it self-certified the Cybercab. FICO -16.68% after FHFA opened VantageScore to every GSE lender. Retail diesel set a record $5.850 a gallon, +57.6% year-on-year. Novartis’s Lp(a) drug failed after the close; Amgen and Ionis fell harder.

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