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MIB Daily: Wall Street Bet a 23K Payrolls Miss Was Dovish as GDPNow Tracks 5.8% — S&P Hits a Record 7,757, Hike Odds Fall to 40%, and Washington Moves to Remove Fed Governor Cook; Favor Small-Caps, Utilities Over Energy

By RecessionALERT on August 7, 2026 in Reflections

July payrolls contracted 23,000 against +83,000 expected — and the S&P 500 closed at a record 7,757.46 anyway, capping its best week since April. September hike odds collapsed from above 50% to 40%. Gold ripped 2.31% to $4,398.87; copper fell 1.87%. Energy was the only sector down more than 1% as crude surrendered Thursday’s Hormuz spike. Trump’s polysilicon tariff sent First Solar up 9%. And the White House restarted its bid to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

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MIB: Stagflation Trap — Hot PPI, Hawkish Fed, and $100 Oil Push Recession Odds to 49%

By RecessionALERT on March 18, 2026 in Reflections

Hot PPI (+0.7% MoM) and a hawkish FOMC dot plot slam markets — S&P -1.36%, Dow -768 pts. WTI crude near $100 as Strait of Hormuz enters week three; Moody’s raises US recession odds to 49%. AbbVie -5.20% as J&J wins FDA approval for competing oral psoriasis drug. Mastercard -3.57% on $1.8B stablecoin BVNK acquisition. Micron (MU) reports record Q2 revenue of $23.86B AMC (+196% YoY); markets react Thursday.

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